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Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang delivers a speech in Taipei on June 2, 2024 (photo by Sam Yeh / Getty Images).

Can Nvidia keep beating earnings estimates?

The magnitude of the AI-enabled boom caught analysts off guard, but Nvidia’s earnings beats have gotten smaller in the last year

Every day, scores of Wall Street analysts devote hours of their life to spreadsheets, tinkering with assumptions in their model as they try to estimate what public companies will report in their upcoming quarterly earnings. By definition, those estimates are pretty much always wrong, but they’re typically only wrong in a relatively small way — a few percent here or there.

However, last summer, the best of Wall Street was really wrong on Nvidia, as the chip company blew analysts estimates out of the water, beating revenue forecasts by 21% and profit by nearly 30% for the three months that ended in July 2023. That quarter was the first indication of what was to come: one of the biggest bull-runs in stock market history, which is showing no signs of letting up.

Indeed, Nvidia briefly got its hands on the “world’s most valuable company” crown again last week, as its market cap touched $3.53 trillion, slightly above Apple’s $3.52 trillion, before it fell back below the iPhone-maker. Nvidia’s recent performance remains exceptional compared to its chipmaking peers, and the rest of the Magnificent Seven, many of whom are Nvidia’s biggest customers.

Nvidia vs. Apple
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That performance suggests that investors are once again expecting another blowout quarter for Nvidia when it reports earnings on November 20th. But, now more than a year into the company’s revelation that it was printing billions of dollars from its Data Center business, can it keep surprising the market?

Nvidia beats and misses
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Interestingly, tracking the surprise on revenue and earnings through FactSet reveals that Wall Street’s analysts have generally been getting closer and closer in the last few quarters. In the last 5 quarters, Nvidia has beaten expectations on revenue by: 21%, 12%, 8%, 6%, and 5%. The earnings surprises have similarly narrowed: 30%, 19%, 12%, 9%, and 5%. Can Jensen Huang and Nvidia surprise everyone once again? Given the way the stock has traded in the last month — up 16% — investors seem confident.

Related reading: Why Nvidia is the Bo Jackson of the stock market.

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Trump administration says tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports are coming... in 2027

After a year-long investigation into China’s tactics to bolster its domestic semiconductor industry, the US has determined that its practices are “unreasonable” and is going to do something about that in 18 months.

The Trump administration’s office of the US trade representative said today that it plans to impose tariffs on imports of Chinese semiconductors at a rate higher than 0% to be decided at least 30 days before June 23, 2027.

“China’s pursuit of its dominance goals has severely disadvantaged US companies, workers, and the U.S. economy generally through lessened competition and commercial opportunities and through the creation of economic security risks from dependencies and vulnerabilities,” per the USTR’s notice of action.

These levies, should they come to pass, would apply to silicon, diodes, transistors, and more.

US markets were completely unbothered by this revelation, likely because there is no immediate action against Chinese semi companies and therefore no disruption to business-as-usual. This represents a punting of a contentious matter, similar to how China delayed restrictions on rare earth shipments as part of a deal between Presidents Trump and Xi following their October meeting.

It’s another sign of a thaw in the US-China relations over the hot-button issue of semiconductors after President Trump gave Nvidia the go-ahead to sell its H200 chips to buyers in the world’s second-largest economy.

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ServiceNow strikes deal to buy cybersecurity firm Armis for $7.75 billion in cash

ServiceNow has agreed to acquire cybersecurity startup Armis for $7.75 billion in an all-cash deal, the largest purchase in the company's history.

That price tag is $750 million above what Bloomberg suggested was the top end of what Armis would cost just last week, and about $1.65 billion above what the company had been valued at in a November funding round.

Armis had been readying itself for an IPO, with many major investors looking to take a stake in the firm.

Instead, it’s now a key cog in the software platform company’s bid to lean on cybersecurity features to bolster its appeal to customers in a world in which the rise of AI adds to the potential threats of business disruptions and data breaches.

Per the press release:

As rapid AI adoption expands the attack surface for organizations, real-time visibility into vulnerabilities and actionable insights for what to fix first are critical to minimize risk and strengthen security posture. The acquisition of Armis will extend and enhance ServiceNow’s Security, Risk, and OT portfolios in critical and fast-growing areas of cybersecurity and drive increased AI adoption by strengthening trust across businesses’ connected environments.

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Novo Nordisk rallies after FDA weight loss pill approval

Novo Nordisk’s US-listed shares are up 7% in pre-market trading on Tuesday after the US Food and Drug Administration approved its Wegovy weight loss pill on Monday evening.

Now the first pill of its kind to receive approval from the regulator, Novo’s Wegovy pill is expected to launch in the US in early January 2026, and awaits the European Medicines Agency and other regulatory authorities’ approval after submitting for review in the second half of 2025, per the company’s press release. The 1.5 milligram starting dose of the pill will be sold at an introductory price of $149 a month.

“The pill is here. With today's approval of the Wegovy® pill, patients will have a convenient, once-daily pill that can help them lose as much weight as the original Wegovy® injection,” said Mike Doustdar, president and CEO of Novo Nordisk.

The approval was based on Novo’s Oasis 4 trial, which found participants who took 25 milligram doses of Wegovy pills daily lost 16.6% of their body weight over a 64 week period.

The approval will give Novo — which lost more than 50% of its market cap this year after Eli Lilly took the crown in weekly US prescriptions for injectable weight-loss drugs with its product Zepbound — a first-mover advantage in the expanding market. Lilly, which is down some 1% in pre-market trading today, has said its own oral drug orforglipron could be approved by March 2026.

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