Markets
Arizona Diamondbacks v San Francisco Giants
Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, prepares to throw the ceremonial first pitch before a game between the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park on September 3, 2024, in San Francisco, California (Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
The chosen one

Nvidia’s not just lapping other chip stocks. It’s running the table on the Magnificent Seven.

The relationship between the daily swings in Nvidia and other megacap tech stocks has virtually disappeared despite the fact that many of them are its biggest customers.

Luke Kawa

Nvidia isn’t just breaking away from its competitors in the semiconductor industry with an eye-popping run of recent gains.

It’s also setting itself apart from another set of peers: the so-called Magnificent Seven of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla.

Apple, the Magnificent Seven component that’s done the second-best over the past month, is still 20 percentage points behind Nvidia’s whopping 24% gain.

In the process, the relationship between the daily swings in Nvidia and the other megacap tech companies has effectively gone to zero. The 21-day average pairwise correlation between the percent change in Nvidia versus the other six of the Mag Seven has dropped from 60% at the start of October to less than 7% as of the close on Monday. That’s the lowest level since early to mid-July, when the correlation was actually negative. Soon thereafter, tech stocks had a correlations-to-one move as investors rotated into small caps, resulting in a pullback for the S&P 500.

I’ve maintained that it’s very curious whenever Nvidia is able to trade so independently of other tech titans, given that many of these are its most important customers. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta are widely assumed to be the four companies that make up roughly half of Nvidia’s sales. The chip designer needs those companies to be raking in so much cash from their business operations that they can justify spending tens of billions of dollars on AI without batting an eye.

The relationship between Nvidia and its cash-flush customers is charitably symbiotic, where its chip sales will facilitate massive cost savings down the road, or at best temporarily parasitic until the economic cycle turns or there’s sufficient evidence that the returns on AI investments don’t make the juice worth the squeeze.

More Markets

See all Markets
markets

SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC and Chartr Limited produce fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and are fully owned subsidiaries of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Money, LLC, Robinhood U.K. Ltd, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, Robinhood Gold, LLC, Robinhood Asset Management, LLC, Robinhood Credit, Inc., Robinhood Ventures DE, LLC and, where applicable, its managed investment vehicles.