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Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, prepares to throw the ceremonial first pitch before a game between the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park on September 3, 2024, in San Francisco, California (Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
The chosen one

Nvidia’s not just lapping other chip stocks. It’s running the table on the Magnificent Seven.

The relationship between the daily swings in Nvidia and other megacap tech stocks has virtually disappeared despite the fact that many of them are its biggest customers.

Luke Kawa

Nvidia isn’t just breaking away from its competitors in the semiconductor industry with an eye-popping run of recent gains.

It’s also setting itself apart from another set of peers: the so-called Magnificent Seven of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla.

Apple, the Magnificent Seven component that’s done the second-best over the past month, is still 20 percentage points behind Nvidia’s whopping 24% gain.

In the process, the relationship between the daily swings in Nvidia and the other megacap tech companies has effectively gone to zero. The 21-day average pairwise correlation between the percent change in Nvidia versus the other six of the Mag Seven has dropped from 60% at the start of October to less than 7% as of the close on Monday. That’s the lowest level since early to mid-July, when the correlation was actually negative. Soon thereafter, tech stocks had a correlations-to-one move as investors rotated into small caps, resulting in a pullback for the S&P 500.

I’ve maintained that it’s very curious whenever Nvidia is able to trade so independently of other tech titans, given that many of these are its most important customers. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta are widely assumed to be the four companies that make up roughly half of Nvidia’s sales. The chip designer needs those companies to be raking in so much cash from their business operations that they can justify spending tens of billions of dollars on AI without batting an eye.

The relationship between Nvidia and its cash-flush customers is charitably symbiotic, where its chip sales will facilitate massive cost savings down the road, or at best temporarily parasitic until the economic cycle turns or there’s sufficient evidence that the returns on AI investments don’t make the juice worth the squeeze.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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