Markets
markets
Luke Kawa

Corporate America’s price targets and profit estimates are getting slashed all over Wall Street

Analysts are increasingly souring on how much money S&P 500 companies will make and how high their stock prices will go.

Strategists at Bloomberg Intelligence track the number of increases versus decreases to 12-month forward earnings-per-share estimates and price cuts from analysts who cover stocks in the S&P 500. Both those metrics are falling off a cliff to hit their lowest levels in at least two years for the week ending April 11:

Some of the cracks in these measures predate any semblance of clarity around tariffs, which suggests that either analysts were ahead of the curve in expecting damage to operating performance (less likely) or they were already responding to early indications of a softening in economic activity.

Unsurprisingly, negative earnings revisions are most pervasive in the consumer discretionary sector, which faces a stiff headwind from tariffs due to its exposure to China.

Given that tariffs tend to push consumer prices higher, it’s no surprise that sales revisions are holding up better than their top-line counterparts. But those are still deep in the red at -0.28.

However, even as they’re cutting estimates and price targets en masse, the sell-side community thinks stocks in their coverage universe are an increasingly good value following the market downturn. Last week, for instance, there were nearly three times as many upgrades as downgrades.

More Markets

See all Markets
markets

Carvana plunges as investors respond to another subprime lender’s bankruptcy filing

Used car retailer Carvana is plunging on Wednesday, with the stock on pace for its worst day since auto tariffs took effect in April.

Likely spooking investors is a fresh bankruptcy filing by PrimaLend, which specializes in financing for dealerships focused on subprime borrowers (customers with lower credit scores, typically below 600, as defined by Experian). The news follows last month’s bankruptcy filing by another subprime auto lender, Tricolor Holdings.

Carvana doesn’t appear to work directly with PrimaLend, but it does likely have significant exposure to subprime loans. According to a January report by Hindenburg Research, which was shorting Carvana, 44% of the loans Carvana packages into asset-backed securities (ABS) are classified as non-prime (601-660 credit scores). More than 80% of its recent non-prime ABS deals had average FICO scores in the “deep subprime” range, or the riskiest levels, according to the report. Carvana at the time called the report "intentionally misleading and inaccurate.”

Carvana has massive growth goals, saying earlier this year that it aims to sell 3 million retail units per year within 5 to 10 years (Wall Street expects it to sell about 580,000 units this year). Lower-income buyers could be a significant part of that growth.

Following Tricolor’s implosion last month, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said: “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more. Everyone should be forewarned on this one.” With investors pouring out of Carvana on Tuesday, it seems Wall Street isn’t taking that warning lightly.

There is likely also some momentum pullback baked into Carvana’s drop: The stock, which has been a favorite among retail traders, is still up 58% this year, even after Wednesday’s drop.

markets

Beyond Meat halted for downside volatility after daily gain of more than 100% disappears

When the broad market turned shortly after 10 a.m. ET, the meme stocks were not immune from the carnage for long.

Beyond Meat, which was up 112% at its peak during regular trading hours on Wednesday amid another day of insanely high volumes and call activity, was halted for downside volatility after briefly erasing all of those gains.

As of 11:49 a.m. ET, the retail trader who posted their “YOLO” buy of 10,000 shares at a price of $7.50 on r/WallStreetBets is now down more than 40% (or $30,000) on the day.

markets

The momentum unwind accelerates in megacaps, with MTUM on its longest streak of underperformance since 2023

First, high-flying speculative stocks took a nosedive. Then gold lost some of its shine. Now, the megacap components of the momentum trade are also looking wobbly.

The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF, which holds stocks with the best risk-adjusted price performance over the past six months and one year, is trailing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF by more than 1 percentage point today through 11:27 a.m. ET.

As of 11:23 a.m. ET, more than one-fifth of its 125 members are down more than 2%, headlined by big tumbles in Netflix, Carvana, GE Vernova, Rocket Lab, Quanta Services, and Robinhood Markets.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

The momentum ETF is in the midst of its seventh straight session of lagging the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, its longest such streak of underperformance since Q4 2023.

The negative reactions to GE Vernova and Netflix’s earnings reports — both MTUM constituents — may be the catalyst for the big retrenchment in the space, the same way Walmart’s disappointing outlook sank the group (and the overall market) in the first quarter.

markets

Oklo, nuke stocks battered amid speculative stock and momentum unwind

Amid a broader unwind of momentum trades, stocks tied to the nuclear-powered AI trade — Oklo, Nano Nuclear, and Centrus Energy among them — are taking a particularly hard beating.

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain estimates that retail traders have dumped $24 million in Oklo shares through 11 a.m. ET.

This tumble comes alongside a tough-minded story from the Financial Times examining the prospects of this zero-revenue company, which as of yesterday had a market value of $20.6 billion. (It’s below $18 billion after today’s drop.)

Of Oklo’s plans to build smaller nuclear reactors using liquid sodium as a coolant rather than water, the salmon-toned periodical wrote:

“Some experts point to the failure of sodium-cooled reactors built in the US between 1950 and 1976.

Critics also note proliferation risks because Oklo’s plans would see plutonium move into private industry hands, where it could be at risk of diversion or theft by those who seek to build an atomic bomb. A decision by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to reject a previous Oklo application to build a sodium-cooled reactor in 2022 has also raised questions.

‘That NRC deemed Oklo beyond help should be a red flag,’ said Allison Macfarlane, a geologist and former chair at the regulator now at the University of British Columbia.

‘Liquid sodium is highly corrosive, flammable and explosive on contact with air and water,’ she said. ‘Many countries have tried to build these reactors before but they haven’t managed to prove they are commercially viable at scale.

“Some experts point to the failure of sodium-cooled reactors built in the US between 1950 and 1976.

Critics also note proliferation risks because Oklo’s plans would see plutonium move into private industry hands, where it could be at risk of diversion or theft by those who seek to build an atomic bomb. A decision by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to reject a previous Oklo application to build a sodium-cooled reactor in 2022 has also raised questions.

‘That NRC deemed Oklo beyond help should be a red flag,’ said Allison Macfarlane, a geologist and former chair at the regulator now at the University of British Columbia.

‘Liquid sodium is highly corrosive, flammable and explosive on contact with air and water,’ she said. ‘Many countries have tried to build these reactors before but they haven’t managed to prove they are commercially viable at scale.

markets

Retail traders hit the sell button on quantum computing stocks

In a parallel universe, retail traders are doubling down on the long-term potential of quantum computing companies. But in this one, they’re very much heading for the exits after these companies, which are in the early stages of commercialization, have enjoyed a monster run that’s beginning to sour.

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain estimates that retail traders are net sellers of single stocks today to the tune of $336 million, as of 11 a.m. ET. And quantum stocks Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum are among the names seeing the biggest outflows, with $26 million and $20 million in net sales, respectively.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.