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Luke Kawa

Corporate America’s price targets and profit estimates are getting slashed all over Wall Street

Analysts are increasingly souring on how much money S&P 500 companies will make and how high their stock prices will go.

Strategists at Bloomberg Intelligence track the number of increases versus decreases to 12-month forward earnings-per-share estimates and price cuts from analysts who cover stocks in the S&P 500. Both those metrics are falling off a cliff to hit their lowest levels in at least two years for the week ending April 11:

Some of the cracks in these measures predate any semblance of clarity around tariffs, which suggests that either analysts were ahead of the curve in expecting damage to operating performance (less likely) or they were already responding to early indications of a softening in economic activity.

Unsurprisingly, negative earnings revisions are most pervasive in the consumer discretionary sector, which faces a stiff headwind from tariffs due to its exposure to China.

Given that tariffs tend to push consumer prices higher, it’s no surprise that sales revisions are holding up better than their top-line counterparts. But those are still deep in the red at -0.28.

However, even as they’re cutting estimates and price targets en masse, the sell-side community thinks stocks in their coverage universe are an increasingly good value following the market downturn. Last week, for instance, there were nearly three times as many upgrades as downgrades.

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Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

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