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Does Nvidia’s stock tend to bounce back after a big drop? Charting the evidence from history

How often does the chip giant bounce back? Lessons from history.

Nvidia had just about the Mondayest Monday yesterday. After a year of astonishing momentum, the chipmaker saw some of that reversed with almost $600 billion wiped from its market cap in the biggest one-day monetary loss for a single stock in market history.

While shedding 17% in a single session obviously isn’t great for investors (or CEO Jensen Huang, whose estimated fortune shrank 20% or $20.1 billion in the sell-off yesterday), many analysts — like Dan Ives at Wedbush — are characterizing the stock’s drop as a “golden buying opportunity.”

With the fundamental debate likely to rage for weeks to come — Nvidia, for what it’s worth, thinks DeepSeek only did the easy bit — some investors will be curious: does the stock tend to bounce back after a dreadful day?

We crunched the numbers going back to 1999, when Nvidia first debuted on the stock market, looking for any days when Nvidia fell more than 5%. We found that had happened 370 times (371 if you include yesterday) with Nvidia’s stock trading in the green the day after on 196 occasions, and it falling again on 174 occasions.

So, that translates roughly to the stock “bouncing” (at least modestly) about 53% of the time.

Nvidia Bounce 1
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What about a shorter time horizon? After all, the Nvidia of today is a far cry from the Nvidia of the late 1990s. If we examine just the last decade or so, since 2015, we get a slightly different result.

Of the 95 times that Nvidia had fallen more than 5% in the decade before yesterday, the stock was up the next day in 60% of those instances.

Nvidia Bounce 2
(Sherwood News)

In premarket trading, Nvidia was briefly up more than 5%. But the stock has since given up some of those early gains, and is currently trading 3.4% higher than it closed yesterday.

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Akamai climbs to highest level since 2000 after reportedly securing Anthropic as a customer

Akamai’s billion-dollar AI infrastructure customer is Anthropic, Bloomberg reported on Friday. The cloud services company extended gains to trade up over 25% following the news.

On Thursday, the company announced a seven-year, $1.8 billion commitment from a “leading frontier model provider.”

Anthropic has been on a mad scramble to boost compute capacity after facing widespread complaints about Claude usage limits and seeing OpenAI position its accumulation of computing power as a competitive advantage.

In a little over a month, Anthropic has struck or expanded deals with CoreWeave, Amazon, Google, Broadcom, as well as xAI (through SpaceX).

As part of that xAI pact, Anthropic announced that it would be increasing usage limits for paying customers.

Anthropic has been on a mad scramble to boost compute capacity after facing widespread complaints about Claude usage limits and seeing OpenAI position its accumulation of computing power as a competitive advantage.

In a little over a month, Anthropic has struck or expanded deals with CoreWeave, Amazon, Google, Broadcom, as well as xAI (through SpaceX).

As part of that xAI pact, Anthropic announced that it would be increasing usage limits for paying customers.

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NuScale Power falls on disappointing drop in Q1 sales

NuScale shares are dropping in the early trading session after it released Q1 earnings yesterday after the bell that are failing to rejuvenate any excitement in the once high-flying, early-stage nuclear energy company.

The company announced Q1 revenue of just $560,000, well below the $10.5 million estimate, with sales down materially year over year thanks to old licensing and design deals that have since been completed.

The lack of financial progress has made NuScale Power more of a momentum-driven way to play the intersection of clean energy and AI infrastructure, particularly as hyperscalers and data center operators search for long-term power sources.

“The demand for reliable, carbon-free power has never been greater, and NuScale is the only SMR technology provider with a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved design, an established supply chain and NPM components currently in production for commercial use to meet this essential need,” said John Hopkins, NuScale president and CEO. “We are building the infrastructure that this pivotal moment requires.”

Analysts at Goldman Sachs trimmed their price target to $9 from $10 in the wake of this report.

The company ended this quarter with cash, cash equivalents, and short- and long-term investments of $1.0 billion. The stock has dropped more than 25% year to date.

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Nintendo falls, will hike Switch 2 price amid memory crunch

Gaming giant Nintendo reported the results for its fourth quarter, which ended in March, on Friday morning. Its US-traded ADR fell nearly 4% in premarket trading.

Most notably, Nintendo announced it will raise the price of its Switch 2 console in the US by $50 to $499.99 in September. Investors have been waiting for Nintendo to join its rivals Sony and Microsoft in boosting the price of its flagship console, but the company had thus far been unwilling to do so this early in the Switch 2’s life cycle.

Nintendo shares have fallen about 45% over the past 12 months, as the company has been hit by tariffs and costs have increased due to AI’s memory demand and higher global shipping rates amid the war in Iran.

For its fiscal 2026, Nintendo reported:

  • 2.313 trillion yen ($14.8 billion) in total revenue, compared to estimates of 2.31 trillion yen ($14.78 billion) from Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet.

  • 19.86 million Switch 2 sales, compared to its 19 million forecast.

For the fiscal year ahead (which will end in March 2027), Nintendo forecast 16.5 million Switch 2 sales. The company is guiding for 2.050 trillion yen ($13.1 billion) in sales for the full year, compared to Wall Street estimates of 2.5 trillion yen ($16.1 billion).

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