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People passing by a betting office advertising board (Artur Widak/Getty Images)
They’re the same picture

Gen Z trades stocks the same way it gambles

Young people have high risk tolerance. More news at 11.

Luke Kawa

A friend passed along a recent blog post from Drive by DraftKings, a venture capital firm whose founding partners include (wait for it) DraftKings, titled, “The Gen Z Effect: The Behavioral Shift Shaping Gaming, Fandom, and Human Performance.”

Here’s a passage that piqued my interest (emphasis added)

“Gen Z’s approach to gaming is clear. They gravitate toward formats that are fast, emotionally charged, and offer the chance at a meaningful payoff. Traditional, slow-paced gameplay is losing ground to experiences that deliver instant feedback and the possibility of an outsized win.

This is why crash games, meme stocks, and parlay bets have gained so much traction with this generation. These formats share a common formula: low-cost entry, high potential upside, and just enough unpredictability to keep things exciting. A recent Morgan Stanley survey found that 60% of bettors aged 21 to 34 have placed parlays, a rate nearly 30% higher than the overall population. Similarly, around 30% of US stock investors aged 18 to 24 have invested in meme stocks compared to 12% of investors ages 45-54.

It’s not just the payout that attracts Gen Z. It’s the emotional volatility, the rush of possibility, and the shareable nature of “just-missed” or jackpot moments. The appeal is simple: put down a small amount, take a swing, and hope to hit it big. Most of these bets won’t pay off, but the ones that do tend to go viral. Social media elevates these wins, creating a sense of FOMO that draws others in. It becomes a feedback loop of visibility, aspiration, and repeat behavior, which keeps Gen Z highly engaged and emotionally invested in the experience.”

To riff on this conception of a “common formula” between parlays and meme stock punts, which often take place through the options market to access embedded leverage:

Both parlays and short-term options punts are examples of things where you need multiple things to go right to win. In parlays, it’s discrete (usually sports-related) outcomes; in options, you need to get the direction and magnitude right by a certain point in time.

samepic

This is why I love the use of options as a storytelling device: they are always and everywhere a greed, fear, or complacency play built around a specific date by which something needs to either happen or not happen. There’s a subject, verb, and time.

“I think one thing that’s very clear about Gen Z is that they’ve repeatedly been told nobody is coming to save you,” Emily Sundberg, author of the Feed Me Substack, said at a live taping of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. “You hear this sense of ‘get the bag while the world is still here for you to make some money out of it.’”

Kind of ironic that the generation that thinks nothing in the world is going right for them seeks out betting and trading structures that require multiple things to go right to profit.

Is this really a Gen Z thing, though?

One can quibble about some of this line of thought. And I will. The 2021 meme stock boom was occurring when the average member of Gen Z was just in their early high school years. I doubt many of them were part of the Apes Together Strong crew.  

The “YOLO” catchphrase that serves as a shorthand for the kind of “eff it, we ball” approach to life was popularized by a somewhat seasoned millennial.

And to dodge any accusations of millennial-boosting, manias have existed well before we were a twinkle in our boomer parents’ eyes and will continue to persist long after we’re ashes. To this author, a person’s willingness to dive headfirst into booms is much more defined by their stage of life rather than the generation they belong to. Oh, to be young…

Gen Z likes structures with huge payoffs that often end in busts? How convenient for the VC firm, which concludes that the shifts in Gen Z behavior “reinforce why we focus where we do — on the edge of behavioral change, where category defining companies are born,” highlighting portfolio companies Triumph and Picklebet as great examples of firms whose products have been built for this generation.

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Luke Kawa

GameStop rallies as Michael Burry takes a trip down memory lane

Shares of GameStop are up more than 3% in premarket trading on Friday.

Thanksgiving is a time for catching up with family and reminiscing about the good times. To that end, early Thursday morning (just after midnight), hedge fund manager turned Substacker Michael Burry published tweets that purportedly offer a look into the lore of his time spent betting on the success of the video game and collectibles retailer ahead of its ascendance to meme stock status.

In one, he shared screenshots of Scion Asset Management’s letter to GameStop’s board of directors, as well as emails appearing to be from Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty, the retail trader whose GameStop thesis inspired legions to jump onboard, and Ryan Cohen, who would go on to become GameStop’s chairman, president, and CEO.

Shares have bounced back in earnest since the stock regained support of the $20 level at the start of this week.

Burry’s Scion announced a bullish GameStop position in GameStop in 2019, and held this through at least the third quarter of 2020.

At the peak of its meme stock frenzy in January 2021, however, he called the price action “unnatural, insane, and dangerous” in a since-deleted tweet, and said that he was no longer long or short the company.

Do I think this is the reason why shares of GameStop are flying on Friday morning?

Eh, in most circumstances I’d say this is pretty thin gruel. But this is a stock that has, in the past, traded off of nostalgia, its exposure to things that are cool or entertaining, and leaders with Big Main Character Energy.

Your mileage may vary, but to me Burry’s trip down memory lane hits a few of these notes. The company is inside the top 20 most mentioned tickers on SwaggyStocks over the past 12 hours as of 8:20 a.m. ET, has seen the greatest pickup in mentions on Stocktwits compared to the prior session (per a Bloomberg Automation report), and Burry’s post is being very positively received on the r/Superstonk subreddit dedicated to discussions of GameStop.

That being said, all this is not something that can reasonably been said to have changed the outlook of GameStop’s estimated future discounted cash flows.

Of course, it’s also Black Friday, and we’ve seen promotional events be a boon for the video game and collectibles retailer this year:

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Outages hit CME’s exchange, affecting FX markets and futures on stocks and Treasurys

After yesterday’s holiday, Black Friday was off to an unusual start after an outage at CME, the world’s biggest exchange operator, hit a number of major markets, halting trading in FX markets as well as affecting futures contracts on stocks, Treasurys, and commodities.

CME Group cited a “cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers” in a short statement on its website, which Reuters reported was posted at 2:40 a.m. GMT, and that it was working to “resolve issues in the near term.”

In an update to the banner on its site, CME says that its BrokerTec US Actives and BrokerTec EU are now open, but that its other markets are currently halted.

While CyrusOne has yet to make a statement about the glitch, CME’s electronic trading platform has been run through CyrusOne’s data center in Aurora, Illinois, after the derivatives exchange sold the campus to the operator in 2016. CyrusOne and the city of Aurora recently reached an agreement to address noise complaints over its chillers, per the Chicago Tribune.

A record daily average of 26.3 million contracts traded through CME in October, with CME one of the biggest sources of liquidity for contracts on a number of core markets, including 10Y Treasurys as well as futures on major US indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

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Luke Kawa

Beyond Meat jumps amid spike in call activity

Shares of Beyond Meat are soaring on Wednesday amid heavy call activity and little news.

Over 200,000 call options have changed hands as of 11 a.m. ET, already above the 20-day average of 194,098 for a full session. Its put/call ratio of close to 0.1 is the lowest in months.

The three most traded options contracts are calls that expire this Friday with strike prices of $1 and $1.50, as well as calls that expire next Friday with a strike price of $1.

Those remain out-of-the-money call options: after its meme moment drove shares to $7.69 on October 22, the stock has given all that back and then some as the air came out of many speculative pockets of the market.

Because of how much call demand spiked during the boom times, today’s pickup registers as more of a blip on the chart:

Beyond Meat’s recent refinancing efforts, which were cited as a supposed fundamental catalyst for the explosion of retail interest, started when the stock was trading at $2.85.

Based on today’s activity, the dust hasn’t fully settled on this story, but so far: management has eliminated about $800 million in debt and all it got in exchange so far is a near 70% decline in its stock price and a longer runway to make processed peas into faux meat.

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