GitLab slumps as Q4 guidance underwhelms and management issues erroneous full-year outlook
GitLab is sinking in early trading Wednesday after a management oopsie added to the sting of its third-quarter results released after the close on Tuesday.
While the software development company exceeded expectations on the top and bottom lines, its Q4 forecast of adjusted net income per share from $0.22 to $0.23 on sales of $251 million to $252 million failed to impress, as the midpoints of these ranges were virtually in-line to a touch below the Street’s view.
Furthermore, the totality of its guidance didn’t add up: in its first press release, management said adjusted net income per share would come in between $0.95 and $0.96.
Given Q1 adjusted net income per share came in at $0.17, Q2 was $0.24, and these Q3 results showed $0.25, that implied its Q4 guidance should have been $0.29 to $0.30 to be consistent with the full-year view. Late on Tuesday night, GitLab corrected this error, stating that its full-year view was actually for $0.88 to $0.89 in adjusted net income per share.
That certainly didn’t help improve sentiment on the company, given that Wall Street was already a little negative on the details of its results and the outlook.
“GitLab's softening net revenue retention rates and lower overall customer additions highlight execution challenges and reinforce our concerns about AI-driven headwinds to seat growth and the pace of AI feature-led upselling and monetization,” writes Bloomberg Intelligence senior technology analyst Sunil Rajgopal.
GitLab’s net retention rate slipped to 119% in Q3, below estimates for 119.8%.
The stock is seeing a flurry of pessimism across Wall Street this morning, with Mizuho lowering its price target to $47 from $52, KeyBanc reducing its to $49 from $53, Goldman Sachs cutting to $42 from $48, Wells Fargo trimming to $45 from $50, and Barclays and Truist edging theirs lower to $42 from $44.