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Gold and silver are the new meme stocks

Momentum. Flows. Options activity. Intense retail enthusiasm. It’s all there.

Luke Kawa

The r/WallStreetBets corner of Reddit is one of the places I go — and one of the sources that the Roundhill Meme Stock ETF draws upon — to get a handle on retail trader sentiment.

And right now, it’s showing quite starkly that gold and silver are the new meme stocks.

Momentum. Flows. Options activity. Intense retail enthusiasm. It’s all there. The new shiny toys for traders are the oldest, shiniest perceived stores of value.

Over the past 12 hours, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust are the two most mentioned and most positively mentioned tickers on the subreddit, per SwaggyStocks.

GLD SLV ticker references on r/WSB
Source: SwaggyStocks

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain, who tracks retail flows, showed that net buying of commodity ETFs from this cohort were $163.1 million as of 4 p.m. ET on Monday, or in the 98th percentile relative to their one-year history. On Friday, those flows were in the 90th percentile, and nearly in the 80th percentile on Thursday.

The five-day average for call volumes in GLD recently hit a record, while those for its silver peer are at their highest since 2021.

The 14-day relative strength index, a technical gauge of the magnitude and persistence of price movements, is at its highest level since 2020 for the silver ETF. The gold ETF, meanwhile, has seen its 14-day RSI close above 70 (which indicates it’s in “overbought” territory) in all but one of the 30 trading days since the end of August. That’s far and away the highest share of time it’s spent in “overbought” territory over any 30-session stretch since this product was introduced in 2004.

The very underfollowed @VKMacro argued on X that the price performance of gold is an example of flows driving very extreme performance:

Precious metals are normally what you turn to when the world is going to hell in a handbasket. And yet we’re seeing it bid up at the same time that the AI trade remains near all-time highs, zero-revenue nuclear energy company Oklo is ramping, and quantum computing stocks are also on fire.

Once again, the nature of the assets that are seemingly going parabolic suggests to me that we’re in an intense bull market in anti-humanity.

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GameStop rallies as Michael Burry takes a trip down memory lane

Shares of GameStop are up more than 3% in premarket trading on Friday.

Thanksgiving is a time for catching up with family and reminiscing about the good times. To that end, early Thursday morning (just after midnight), hedge fund manager turned Substacker Michael Burry published tweets that purportedly offer a look into the lore of his time spent betting on the success of the video game and collectibles retailer ahead of its ascendance to meme stock status.

In one, he shared screenshots of Scion Asset Management’s letter to GameStop’s board of directors, as well as emails appearing to be from Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty, the retail trader whose GameStop thesis inspired legions to jump onboard, and Ryan Cohen, who would go on to become GameStop’s chairman, president, and CEO.

Shares have bounced back in earnest since the stock regained support of the $20 level at the start of this week.

Burry’s Scion announced a bullish GameStop position in GameStop in 2019, and held this through at least the third quarter of 2020.

At the peak of its meme stock frenzy in January 2021, however, he called the price action “unnatural, insane, and dangerous” in a since-deleted tweet, and said that he was no longer long or short the company.

Do I think this is the reason why shares of GameStop are flying on Friday morning?

Eh, in most circumstances I’d say this is pretty thin gruel. But this is a stock that has, in the past, traded off of nostalgia, its exposure to things that are cool or entertaining, and leaders with Big Main Character Energy.

Your mileage may vary, but to me Burry’s trip down memory lane hits a few of these notes. The company is inside the top 20 most mentioned tickers on SwaggyStocks over the past 12 hours as of 8:20 a.m. ET, has seen the greatest pickup in mentions on Stocktwits compared to the prior session (per a Bloomberg Automation report), and Burry’s post is being very positively received on the r/Superstonk subreddit dedicated to discussions of GameStop.

That being said, all this is not something that can reasonably been said to have changed the outlook of GameStop’s estimated future discounted cash flows.

Of course, it’s also Black Friday, and we’ve seen promotional events be a boon for the video game and collectibles retailer this year:

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Outages hit CME’s exchange, affecting FX markets and futures on stocks and Treasurys

After yesterday’s holiday, Black Friday was off to an unusual start after an outage at CME, the world’s biggest exchange operator, hit a number of major markets, halting trading in FX markets as well as affecting futures contracts on stocks, Treasurys, and commodities.

CME Group cited a “cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers” in a short statement on its website, which Reuters reported was posted at 2:40 a.m. GMT, and that it was working to “resolve issues in the near term.”

In an update to the banner on its site, CME says that its BrokerTec US Actives and BrokerTec EU are now open, but that its other markets are currently halted.

While CyrusOne has yet to make a statement about the glitch, CME’s electronic trading platform has been run through CyrusOne’s data center in Aurora, Illinois, after the derivatives exchange sold the campus to the operator in 2016. CyrusOne and the city of Aurora recently reached an agreement to address noise complaints over its chillers, per the Chicago Tribune.

A record daily average of 26.3 million contracts traded through CME in October, with CME one of the biggest sources of liquidity for contracts on a number of core markets, including 10Y Treasurys as well as futures on major US indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

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Luke Kawa

Beyond Meat jumps amid spike in call activity

Shares of Beyond Meat are soaring on Wednesday amid heavy call activity and little news.

Over 200,000 call options have changed hands as of 11 a.m. ET, already above the 20-day average of 194,098 for a full session. Its put/call ratio of close to 0.1 is the lowest in months.

The three most traded options contracts are calls that expire this Friday with strike prices of $1 and $1.50, as well as calls that expire next Friday with a strike price of $1.

Those remain out-of-the-money call options: after its meme moment drove shares to $7.69 on October 22, the stock has given all that back and then some as the air came out of many speculative pockets of the market.

Because of how much call demand spiked during the boom times, today’s pickup registers as more of a blip on the chart:

Beyond Meat’s recent refinancing efforts, which were cited as a supposed fundamental catalyst for the explosion of retail interest, started when the stock was trading at $2.85.

Based on today’s activity, the dust hasn’t fully settled on this story, but so far: management has eliminated about $800 million in debt and all it got in exchange so far is a near 70% decline in its stock price and a longer runway to make processed peas into faux meat.

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Luke Kawa

AI stocks linked to OpenAI are rallying in a reversal of recent trends

The AI pendulum appears to be swinging back in the other direction, at least for one day.

The TL;DR trade within AI has recently been “long Google and its supply chain partners, short anything closely affiliated with OpenAI.”

As we discussed yesterday, the Google ecosystem has been booming, while key OpenAI suppliers and investors have been languishing.

Today, we’re seeing a bit of a reversal in that seeming pair trade — and, in what’s very positive for markets on the whole, this is being driven by the outperformance of the OpenAI-linked cohort rather than intense pain for the Google group.

Nvidia, CoreWeave, Oracle, and Advanced Micro Devices are all trading well to the upside in early trading. Meanwhile, Google is modestly lower, and Broadcom and Lumentum are in the green, though not by as much as most of the OpenAI-linked suite of stocks.

“With the trillions set to be spent over the coming years many Big Tech players will benefit besides Nvidia on the chip front... that should not be mistaken for Nvidia being the indisputable Rocky Balboa champion of the AI Revolution and that is not changing any time soon on the chip front,” wrote Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives.

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