US job growth crushes estimates in March, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipping to 4.3%
US hiring surged in March, with job growth of 178,000 well ahead of estimates while the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 4.3%.
Economists had anticipated non-farm payrolls growth of 65,000 for the month with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%
Event contracts had presumed that job growth would come in between 70,000 and 80,000, a sunnier view than Wall Street.
Prediction markets had anticipated roughly 70% odds that the unemployment rate would hold steady at 4.4%, with a much higher implied likelihood of an increase versus a decrease.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
S&P 500 equity futures, which were modestly negative ahead of the report in thin holiday trading, were little changed in the immediate aftermath of this release. Treasury yields jumped, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.35% from 4.31%.
The inflationary impact of the higher crude prices in the wake of US-Israeli attacks on Iran and the subsequent challenges shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz has been the dominant macroeconomic development of the past month, rather than US labor market data.
Before the conflict began, roughly 60 basis points of easing by the Federal Reserve was priced in for 2026. Heading into this release, that’s slimmed to just 5 basis points as US gas prices jumped above $4 per gallon.
The Federal Reserve’s “dot plot” from the March meeting still suggests that officials think it will be appropriate to lower the policy rate this year if the economy unfolds in line with their expectations.
The February jobs report had been a big disappointment, with jobs unexpectedly contracting and the unemployment rate edging higher. With this release, the February figures were revised to show an even larger decline of 133,000.
Strikes which had weighed on employment in health care during February, a critical source of US employment growth in recent years, seemingly reversed. The industry accounted for more than half of net job growth for March.
