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Luke Kawa

Megacap tech roars back, sending US stocks higher

The S&P 500 ended its longest losing streak since April with a jump of 1.3%. The Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 fared even better, up 1.7%.

Nine of 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs advanced, with marginal losses from consumer staples and materials as the lone holdouts. Consumer discretionary, tech, real estate, and industrials all rose more than 1%.

The Magnificent 7 cohort advanced 2.4%, with Tesla leading the way after yesterday’s big losses. Nvidia also put in another big gain to open the year as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF booked its largest one-day rally since September. Super Micro Computer was the best-performing S&P 500 constituent, up double digits.

Many automakers also moved higher after reporting strong EV sales, including General Motors, Ford, and Rivian, which had its biggest one-day gain since its IPO.

The US dollar, whose strength was a pain point for stocks in the first session of the year, fell against every G10 currency except the Canadian dollar on the day.

US Steel tumbled after President Biden blocked Japan’s Nippon Steel from acquiring the company.

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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