Markets
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Luke Kawa

Microsoft is the biggest drag on the US stock market since Gemini 3’s launch

Microsoft is the publicly traded company that, due to its partnership with OpenAI, had a place of pride at the epicenter of the AI boom.

It doesn’t have that much to show for it.

Thanks to last week’s plunge following the release of its earnings, the tech behemoth is now trailing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF for the first time since November 30, 2022 — the day ChatGPT was released. It’s the only member of the so-called Magnificent 7 to trail the fund that tracks the benchmark US stock index over this stretch.

The OpenAI relationship has been more of a burden than a boon for the company as of late, as the ChatGPT maker’s cash burn and competitive pressures have cast a pall over its partners.

Per data from Bloomberg, Microsoft has been the biggest drag on SPY since the release of Gemini 3, shaving off 80 basis points. Alphabet, on the other hand, has been the largest driver of the ETF’s advance over this period.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

Luke Kawa
7/2/26
US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

Job growth was 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.

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Luke Kawa
7/1/26
Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

The story of the hyperscalers in 2026 has largely been “the beatings will continue until the cash flow outlook improves;” this could help change the story for Meta. Or not.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg visits U.S. Capitol for Senate meetings

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