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Trump waves sadly
Trump waves goodbye (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
...and it’s gone

Most of the knee-jerk “Trump trades” have fizzled out

Besides bitcoin, the US dollar, and Geo Group, positions that are presumptive beneficiaries of the new administration have lost ground since November 6.

Luke Kawa

Financial markets reacted decisively the morning after President-elect Donald Trump’s and congressional Republicans’ electoral successes as investors scrambled to price in a litany of potential policy shifts and what those might mean for companies and the economy.

Bitcoin, banks, private prison stocks, small caps, steel companies, oil and gas producers, Treasury yields, and the US dollar all rocketed higher on November 6. 

A month removed from the vote, how many of those moves have had staying power and built on those gains? Well, not many.

Hopes for a more lax regulatory environment propelled banks and energy stocks higher — in the case of the latter, even as crude-oil prices sank. That impulse has proved short-lived.

The Russell 2000’s burst of outperformance versus the S&P 500 has also faded. Stocks that are presumptive beneficiaries of Republican policies are down compared to Democrat-linked companies since November 6. And Treasury yields are now below preelection levels.

A caveat: since Trump’s prospective victory was getting priced into financial markets before Election Day, some of these trades were doing well ahead of the event. In addition, given the significant repricing of a lot of these pair trades on November 6, it’s not surprising that there’d be a bit of consolidation afterward.

And, of course, there are a few big exceptions where the postelection knee-jerk reactions had significant follow-through. GEO Group’s strong run of outperformance continued, the US dollar has extended its gains, and bitcoin has broken above $100,000.

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Sandisk rides Wall Street price target hikes toward new record

Sandisk leapt Friday, riding a resurgent wave of AI-related market exuberance as well as two price target hikes from Wall Street analysts.

Goldman Sachs lifted its target for the stock to $320 from $280, while keeping a “buy” rating on the stock. Mizhuho lifted its target to a Street high of $410 from its previous target of $250, while maintaining an “outperform” rating on the shares.

Long considered a maker of commodity data storage products, Sandisk was spun off by Western Digital in an IPO in February.

When it dawned on the market sometime in the fall that the AI boom would mean an explosion in demand for data storage, Sandisk shares went parabolic.

Its more than 350% run-up between the ends of August and December led to Sandisk’s inclusion in the S&P 500. And its 560% gain for the year made it the index’s top performer.

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It looks like the stock market was expecting some tariff relief

The S&P 500 briefly dipped into negative territory and tariff-sensitive stocks swung from big gains to big losses after the Supreme Court declined to give a ruling on tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the IEEPA.

A basket of “Trump Tariff Losers” stocks compiled by UBS, which includes Under Armour, American Eagle, Yeti, Mattel, and Deckers Outdoor, was up as much as 1.5% in early trading before falling as much as 1.7% after news of the lack of news surfaced.

The good news is that for the market as a whole (and even this group in particular), the pain seems to have been short-lived, with both bouncing back to erase losses.

It’s a decent little snapshot or case study to show that, yes, as prediction markets imply, the stock market is pricing in tariff relief.

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Amazon pharmacy to begin offering home delivery for Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill

Amazon Pharmacy announced Friday that it will offer Novo Nordisk’s recently approved weight-loss pill Wegovy, the newest frontier in the drugmaker’s push toward direct-to-consumer options.

Amazon said it will offer delivery for the pill through insurance and cash-pay options. Novos cash-pay price for the pill is $149 a month — less than half of what its injectables cost through the same channel.

Novo has partnered with big-box stores like Costco and Walmart as well as several big telehealth companies, including Ro, Weight Watchers, and LifeMD, to distribute the pill. This comes as the Danish pharma giant is trying to regain ground after Eli Lilly surpassed it in market share, in large part because of its early emphasis on direct-to-consumer channels.

The Food and Drug Administration approved Novos weight-loss pill in December, making it the first approved weight-loss pill to go to market. It has the same active ingredient, semaglutide, as its injectable products, Ozempic and Wegovy. Lillys oral version, orforglipron, is expected to come to market later this year.

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Intel gains after a favorable post from Trump

Intel continued its strong 2026 start by rising early Friday, following a favorable online post from President Trump, whose administration partially nationalized the ailing American chip giant in August.

In a Truth Social post Thursday afternoon, he praised CEO Lip-Bu Tan, boasted about the amount of money the government’s 10% investment in the company has made, and said, “Our Country is determined to bring leading edge Chip Manufacturing back to America, and that is exactly what is happening!!!”

Even after adjusting for the Trumpian tendency toward hyperbole, that last comment will be intriguing to Intel watchers. The company’s search to make deals with external customers willing to use its next-generation contract chip manufacturing business, crucial to the future of Intel’s ailing foundry business, will likely be a key driver of the stock price this year.

It’s not nuts to think that having the US government as a shareholder and the president as an active cheerleader — especially one who’s not shy about putting pressure on private sector companies to get what he wants — could be helpful in corralling reticent foundry customers.

Intel is up roughly 16% year to date and has more than doubled over the last year.

Even after adjusting for the Trumpian tendency toward hyperbole, that last comment will be intriguing to Intel watchers. The company’s search to make deals with external customers willing to use its next-generation contract chip manufacturing business, crucial to the future of Intel’s ailing foundry business, will likely be a key driver of the stock price this year.

It’s not nuts to think that having the US government as a shareholder and the president as an active cheerleader — especially one who’s not shy about putting pressure on private sector companies to get what he wants — could be helpful in corralling reticent foundry customers.

Intel is up roughly 16% year to date and has more than doubled over the last year.

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