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The Nasdaq Composite Index is now down 10% from its December peak

Tariffs and geopolitical tensions have sparked a sell-off, with high-flying tech stocks getting smacked.

David Crowther

On Friday, March 10, 2000, nearly 25 years ago to the day, the Nasdaq Composite — a growth-heavy index often synonymous with tech stocks — peaked at 5048.62 before slipping 2.8% in the following Monday’s trading.

At the time, investors had no idea what was to come, as that small release of pressure turned into a bump, which turned into a correction, which turned into a full-blown pop for the dot-com bubble that had turned an entire generation of web 1.0 entrepreneurs into paper millionaires. It took 15 years for the market to climb out of the crater it had eventually sunk into, with the Nasdaq Composite down 78% from its peak at its worst.

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Though things are very different today from that fateful time at the turn of the millennium, the same Nasdaq index has once again entered correction territory — falling 10.4% since its December 16 peak, as concerns over tariffs, trade, and geopolitical tensions weighed on stocks this week. Broader indexes, like the S&P 500, which is down only 6.6% from its high, haven’t hit the correction milestone yet.

While the urge to be alarmist is strong, this is, of course, a fairly regular occurrence. Stocks can’t go up forever, even if we’d like them to, and a drop of 10% has happened dozens of times before. What’s more, unlike in 2000, many of the companies that have seen their share prices soar over the last 24 months have real business momentum. Just yesterday, Broadcom reported a blockbuster set of numbers, with profits more than quadrupling to $5.5 billion in Q1.

History suggests that if we do enter a prolonged downturn, tech stocks with stretched valuations could be in for a lot more pain. It goes without saying, however, that dot-com darlings like Pets.com, and even giants like Cisco, were never posting $5.5 billion of quarterly profits.

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Lucid sinks following weaker-than-expected Q3 vehicle deliveries and lowered analyst outlook

Lucid delivered 4,078 vehicles in its third quarter, the seventh straight quarterly delivery record for the luxury EV maker. But despite that year-over-year growth, the figure came in below Wall Street’s estimates by about 18% in a quarter where EV makers (including luxury competitors like Rivian) sold thousands of vehicles leading up to the expiration of the US federal EV tax credit.

Lucid shares fell more than 8% in Tuesday trading. Also likely making investors skittish was a freshly lowered Lucid rating by CFRA from “sell” to “strong sell.”

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson wrote that the rating drop “reflects concerns regarding LCID’s cash burn rate, weak demand, pricing pressures, EV competition, and the fact it is nowhere near close to achieving the mass production rates needed to meaningfully drive down unit costs.” CFRA’s price target for Lucid is $10, 55% below the stock’s current price.

Nelson argues customer demand is a major issue for Lucid, which hasn’t updated its full-year production guidance of 18,000 to 20,000 vehicles since its earnings report in August. To achieve the low end of that range, Lucid will need to build more than 8,000 vehicles in its fourth quarter, which would reflect Q4 production growth of 137% year over year.

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Intercontinental Exchange makes strategic investment in Polymarket in bet on prediction markets

DraftKings and Flutter fell on the news, as prediction markets are clearly gaining traction and the risk to sports betting apps grows.

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Oracle tumbles after report that it’s lost nearly $100 million from renting out access to Nvidia’s Blackwell chips

You buy Nvidia’s flagship chips because they’re supposed to be best in class, empowering you to build better AI capabilities or make lots money off other companies that want to harness the power of the AI boom.

Not quite, per this report from The Information, whose final paragraph begins with this line:

“In the three months that ended in August, Oracle lost nearly $100 million from rentals of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, which arrived this year.”

The report notes that some of this is a timing issue, a gap between getting data centers equipped for use and when customers start paying for services.

Oracle, which was roughly flat, quickly fell more than 5% as traders digested this report. Shares of Nvidia, which were up nearly 2% at their highs of the day, turned negative.

Citing internal documents, The Information says that Oracle’s “fast-growing cloud business has had razor-thin gross profit margins in the past year or so,” booking a gross profit of $125 million on rentals of servers that utilize Nvidia chips for the three months ending in August, for a gross margin of just under 14%.

The damage in markets is far from localized in those two stocks, however. In a reversal of how OpenAI’s deal with AMD buoyed the AI trade on Monday, this news is sparking a broad-based retreat.

Nvidia’s top AI chip rival, Broadcom, went from flat to down 2%, with memory chip specialist Micron and foundry giant TSMC also well in the red. Neocloud companies Nebius and CoreWeave, disk drive sellers Western Digital and Seagate Technology Holdings, and zero-revenue nuclear energy firm Okloare among the other stocks selling off on the news.

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AMD soars again after getting more than 20 price target hikes across Wall Street following its deal with OpenAI

Over the past 24 hours, Wall Street has been scrambling to revise its view on how high shares of Advanced Micro Devices can climb in the wake of its recently announced megadeal with OpenAI.

While the terms of the arrangement may raise some eyebrows, Wall Street is expecting that OpenAI’s big foray into AMD’s AI chips will serve as a validation point and magnet for other potential buyers.

“OpenAI is arguably the most disruptive of GenAI cloud computing customers, and its success is likely to act as a force multiplier for other cloud vendors and LLM providers to accelerate their capex, positive for multiple chip, memory, optical, networking, and foundry suppliers,” wrote Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya, who estimates the agreement could be worth over $100 billion over the next four to six years.

As of publishing, we’ve tallied up 22 cases where the sell side has hiked its price target on the chip designer since news of the deal broke:

  • Jefferies, to $300 from $170 (also upgraded the stock to “buy” and had raised its price target just last week!)

  • Melius, to $300 from $200

  • Barclays, to $300 from $200

  • Wells Fargo, to $275 from $185

  • Argus Research, to $275 from $200

  • Cantor Fitzgerald, to $275 from $200

  • Truist, to $273 from $213

  • Benchmark, to $270 from $210

  • New Street Research, to $265 from $230

  • Bank of America, to $250 from $200

  • Roth Capital, to $250 from $200

  • Morgan Stanley, to $246 from $168

  • Baird, to $240 from $175

  • President Capital Management, to $240 from $186

  • Evercore ISI, to $240 from $188

  • Stifel, to $240 from $190

  • Piper Sandler, to $240 from $190

  • Citi, to $215 from $180

  • Goldman Sachs, to $210 from $150

  • Morningstar, to $210 from $155

  • Bernstein, to $200 from $140

  • Deutsche Bank, to $200 from $150

Bloomberg has average price target data going back to September 2005. Over the past two decades and change, there have been only 12 instances where the two-day average price target rose more than the 16% upward revision since the OpenAI pact was announcement.

  • Jefferies, to $300 from $170 (also upgraded the stock to “buy” and had raised its price target just last week!)

  • Melius, to $300 from $200

  • Barclays, to $300 from $200

  • Wells Fargo, to $275 from $185

  • Argus Research, to $275 from $200

  • Cantor Fitzgerald, to $275 from $200

  • Truist, to $273 from $213

  • Benchmark, to $270 from $210

  • New Street Research, to $265 from $230

  • Bank of America, to $250 from $200

  • Roth Capital, to $250 from $200

  • Morgan Stanley, to $246 from $168

  • Baird, to $240 from $175

  • President Capital Management, to $240 from $186

  • Evercore ISI, to $240 from $188

  • Stifel, to $240 from $190

  • Piper Sandler, to $240 from $190

  • Citi, to $215 from $180

  • Goldman Sachs, to $210 from $150

  • Morningstar, to $210 from $155

  • Bernstein, to $200 from $140

  • Deutsche Bank, to $200 from $150

Bloomberg has average price target data going back to September 2005. Over the past two decades and change, there have been only 12 instances where the two-day average price target rose more than the 16% upward revision since the OpenAI pact was announcement.

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AppLovin rebounds as Citi says tumble on report of SEC probe is a buying opportunity

AppLovin got thwacked late in the session on Monday following a report by Bloomberg that the SEC is investigating the ad tech company’s data collection practices.

Shares are paring some of that decline on Tuesday, up about 3% in early trading. Citi analyst Jason Bazinet calls yesterday's late tumble “a bit extreme,” as he estimates it’s equivalent to pricing in a $680 million hit to revenues.

“We would be buyers on any weakness,” he wrote.

Bazinet, who has a “buy” rating and $850 price target on AppLovin — the highest among all analysts polled by Bloomberg — suggested the company’s response to the report implies it may not be that serious of an issue, in management’s eyes. AppLovin told Bloomberg that it would disclose material developments through appropriate public channels.

“We view the lack of an 8K filing as a positive in that the firm does not view this probe as a ‘material’ risk,” he wrote. “In addition, we would suspect Apple and Google would properly monitor their respective platforms and enforce any potential violations.”

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