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Luke Kawa

Nebius Group’s $3 billion deal with Meta takes some of the sting out of soft Q3 results

The knee-jerk move lower in Nebius after the company reported underwhelming Q3 results is not being fully offset by its concurrent announcement of a fresh $3 billion deal with Meta to deliver AI infrastructure over the next five years.

The numbers:

  • Revenue: $146.1 million (compared to analyst estimates of $156.5 million)

  • Adjusted net income: -$100.4 million (estimate: -$95.7 million)

In its earnings presentation, the neocloud highlighted that it sold out of all available capacity in Q3.

Management also significantly boosted guidance related to capacity, seeing contracted power at more than 2.5 gigawatts at the end of calendar year 2026, up from 1 gigawatt previously. Next year is poised to be huge for Nebius in terms of putting that power to good use, as management sees connected power (that is, energy that can be immediately activated upon GPU installation) rising from 220 megawatts at year-end 2025 to a range of 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt by the end of 2026, or roughly quadrupling its active operations.

In a letter to shareholders, founder and CEO Arkady Volozh said that the firm is “currently in the process of securing additional sites” that would allow this contracted power guidance to be realized.

“The only real limitation on our revenue growth in 2025 has been the amount of capacity that we have been able to bring online,” Volozh wrote.

As the company works to resolve these constraints, “we believe that we can achieve annualized run-rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026,” he added. There’s only one ARR estimate for Q4 2026 among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, and that’s for $4 billion.

Management also announced an at-the-market equity program that will allow them to opportunistically raise capital by issuing up to 25 million shares.

Peer CoreWeave is slumping after posting its Q3 results after the close on Monday, in which management highlighted that supply constraints in the “powered shell” — that is, the supporting electrical infrastructure for the data center — are delaying its ramp, prompting a cut to full-year revenue guidance.

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Luke Kawa
7/13/26
Meet the newly public, Bezos-backed company that’s recreating the sun and stars

General Fusion CEO Greg Twinney spoke with Sherwood News from the Nasdaq during the stock’s first day of trading.

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J. Edward Moreno

SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

Luke Kawa
7/2/26
US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

Job growth was 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.

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Luke Kawa
7/1/26
Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

The story of the hyperscalers in 2026 has largely been “the beatings will continue until the cash flow outlook improves;” this could help change the story for Meta. Or not.

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markets
Paige Oamek

Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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