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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang
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Chip off the old block

It’s been 2,342 trading days since Nvidia and the Nasdaq 100 diverged like this

A lackluster response to Nvidia’s earnings report is not causing any negative market spillovers.

Luke Kawa

The 2024 stock market has, for all intents and purposes, belonged to Nvidia.

The chipmaker powering the AI boom has moved in the same direction as the S&P 500 on more than 70% of trading days this year; for the Nasdaq 100, that share is close to 80%.

That’s what makes the post-earnings divergence between Nvidia and the tech-heavy gauge so interesting, with the stock down over 3% while the Nasdaq 100 is up about 1.2% as of 12:15pm ET.

The landmark event that everyone thought might define the market direction, at least in the near-term, hasn’t.

We’ve gone 2,342 trading days since the Nasdaq 100 was up at least 1% while Nvidia was down at least 2.5%.

Nvidia is a $3 trillion company now; back then, its market capitalization was less than $12 billion. Its weighting in the Nasdaq 100 has increased substantially over this period, making this divergence all the more noteworthy.

What also makes this quite intriguing is that the volatility backdrop has been wildly different recently compared to previous times Nvidia has reported in the past year, as flagged by Macro Risk Advisors CEO and founder Dean Curnutt, ahead of the event.

We can backfill some good reasons why it hasn’t, like the strong performance of software stocks on the heels of Saleforce’s strong earnings, or this comment from Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives on how Nvidia is helping the entire semi industry (via BNN’s Amber Kanwar).

But stepping back, the conditions for a negatively-received Nvidia report to destabilize the broader market seemed to be present. That simply hasn’t happened.

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Broadcom jumps after locking down Google as a customer for future generations of TPUs

Shares of Broadcom rose more than 3% in postmarket trading on Monday after its most important customer doubled down on the custom chip specialist’s ability to produce its most valuable commodity.

In a filing, Broadcom said that it entered into a long-term agreement with Google to supply future generations of TPUs (custom AI accelerator chips) as well as a supply assurance agreement for networking and other equipment “through up to 2031.”

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon indicated that Broadcom’s investor relations team told him that Google’s long-term agreement “has revenue commitments that go along with it through the timeline.”

Gemini 3 launched to rave reviews in November. The model was trained on TPUs co-developed by Broadcom and Google.

The same Monday filing showed that Broadcom, Google, and Anthropic expanded a partnership that will see the Claude developer access 3.5 gigawatts of AI compute capacity beginning in 2027, powered by the TPUs co-designed by the custom chip specialist and the search giant.

Bernstein’s Rasgon added that Broadcom’s team suggested these 3.5 gigawatts are “only part of a larger partnership over time.” He thinks Broadcom’s fiscal year 2027 guidance for AI revenues of $100 billion “is looking increasingly light” thanks to this news.

For what it’s worth, the enhanced pact with Anthropic hinges upon the firm’s ability to afford AI compute. But based on the insane trajectory of its run-rate revenue that may not be a big hurdle to clear.

“Broadcom’s expanded agreements with Google and Anthropic add rare multi-year visibility, reinforcing a $40-$50 billion AI revenue opportunity tied to Anthropic’s 3.5 gigawatt deployment starting in 2027, while building on the previously disclosed 1GW ($10 billion) starting in 2H,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kunjan Sobhani and Oscar Hernandez Tejada.

markets

Health insurers surge after Medicare agrees to pay 2.48% more in 2027, a bigger-than-expected boost

Health insurance stocks are surging after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said it plans to boost Medicare Advantage and Part D payments by 2.48% in calendar year 2027.

The likes of CVS, Humana, UnitedHealth, Molina Healthcare, Oscar Health, and Elevance Health are gaining in postmarket trading.

Wall Street analysts had anticipated that rates for 2027 would go up between roughly 1% and 1.5%.

These stocks had gotten crushed in late January when the Trump administration proposed relatively flat federal payment rates.

Insurance companies that provide government-sponsored plans, like Medicare Advantage, faced headwinds from higher-than-expected costs in 2025.

markets

Iran war winners Dow, LyondellBasell downgraded by Bank of America

Dow, Inc. and LyondellBasell — two petrochemicals stocks that surged as markets priced in shortages due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — should decline as investors focus on the long-term outlook for normalized petrochemical prices once the war resolves, Bank of America analysts wrote in a note downgrading the two stocks Monday.

BofA moved its rating on the shares from “neutral” to “underperform,” writing:

“Over time, as chemical markets normalize, we expect 1) investor focus to shiſt back to ‘normal’ or ‘sustainable’ earnings profiles and 2) the conflict to resolve without material asset rationalization, both of which likely bias shares lower over the next twelve months.”

Analysts also lowered their stance on another petrochemicals and building materials stock, Westlake, to “neutral” from “buy.”

While cutting those ratings, BofA actually raised its more near-term price targets for the shares. It upped LyondellBasell to $68 from $55, and Dow to $35 from $31.

But those price targets still imply declines of more than 10% compared to where both shares were trading late Monday morning. Both stocks are up roughly 30% since the start of the Iran war.

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