Nvidia, AMD tumble as Broadcom reportedly secures OpenAI as a major new customer
For the stock market, AI has been the rising tide that lifts any boat that can loosely be seen as flying its colors.
But in the genesis of the AI trade this morning — the powerful chip designers of the picks and shovels for this gold rush — there’s a little bit of a zero-sum element at play:
Broadcom is flying up double digits on the reported addition of OpenAI as the major customer that’s ordered $10 billion in custom chips, significantly improving its 2026 revenue outlook in the process.
Meanwhile, Nvidia is down 3% and No. 3 US chip player Advanced Micro Devices is faring even worse, as this news comes one day after analysts at Seaport cut that stock to neutral, saying that its AI accelerator business hasn’t gained much traction yet. The Street had been very optimistic about the prospects for its new line of chips.
AMD and Nvidia both reported quarterly sales that exceeded expectations, with guidance for revenues in the current quarter that were also ahead of estimates. Nevertheless, both stocks fell after reporting results. To get a positive reaction as a major AI chip designer this earnings season, it seems you need to have done something so good for your company that it actually hurts your competitors’ outlooks.
As we’ve noted, Nvidia’s data center revenues are extremely concentrated, with just three customers (one of which is suspected to be OpenAI) making up over half of direct hardware sales. And despite the chip designer’s protestations to the contrary, the AI boom is more supply-constrained than demand-constrained. So it makes sense that hyperscalers aiming to equip themselves with state-of-the-art technology are looking to do so from a variety of major suppliers.
In its latest conference call, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang downplayed the threat of custom chips (or ASICs) muscling in on his turf, and highlighted several of the perceived advantages of choosing his company’s products:
“One of the advantages that we have is that NVIDIA is available in every cloud. We're available from every computer company. We're available from the cloud to on-prem to edge to robotics on the same programming model. And so it's sensible that every framework in the world supports NVIDIA. When you're building a new model architecture, releasing it on NVIDIA is most sensible.
And so the diversity of our platform, both in the ability to evolve into any architecture, the fact that we're everywhere, and also we accelerate the entire pipeline. Everything from data processing, to pre-training, to post-training with reinforcement learning, all the way out to inference. And so, when you build a data center with NVIDIA platform in it, the utility of it is best. The lifetime usefulness is much, much longer.”
“Because our performance per dollar is so incredible, you also have extremely great margins. So, the growth opportunity with NVIDIA's architecture and the gross margins opportunity with NVIDIA's architecture is absolutely the best. And so there's a lot of reasons why NVIDIA is chosen by every cloud and every startup and every computer company. We're really a holistic, full-stack solution for AI factories.”
