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A Different Kind of Red Wave

Options whales looking for Chinese stimulus up tens of millions in less than 10 days

Words from Beijing speak louder than action, spurring a major rally in domestic stocks.

Luke Kawa

With Trump 2.0 looming, traders put on massive bets that Chinese policymakers would be doing something to buttress the economy.

Those wagers are paying off big time now that “something” — a pledge from the Chinese Communist Party to “implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies” in 2025 — has happened.

The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF, which aims to deliver about 3x the daily return of the FTSE China 50, is up over 20% in early trading.

Traders had been piling into call options that would be money-good if this ETF broke above $27 by January 16, 2026. The appetite for these contracts exploded higher on the last trading day of November and the first one of December, right as these contracts started to be in the money. About 40% of the total call demand for this ETF is tied to this specific strike and expiry.

Based on the volume-weighted price on November 29 and December 2, more than $125 million was spent accumulating a position that is now worth over $200 million.

There was similar whale-type behavior in the Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares ETF, which seeks to deliver double the daily return of the CSI 300 Index, in December’s opening trading day.

Open interest in contracts that would be money-good if this ETF for more conservative but still leveraged China bulls eclipsed $15 by May 15, 2025, jumped on December 2 and is up about 50% since then.

This communique from the Politburo may not seem like a sufficient catalyst for such a market rally, until you realize the governing body had been calling for a “prudent” monetary policy for 14 years. The last time China was looking for monetary policy to be moderately loose was in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. 

“This is the strongest signal yet that more aggressive techniques/measures will be used to boost the struggling economy, as it has domestic battles (think of the property sector, for one) and international ones (think big trading partners putting tariffs on many exports coming out of China),” wrote BMO Capital Markets senior economist Jennifer Lee.

On the other hand, this isn’t the first time this year — heck, not even the first time in the past three months — that traders have gone gaga over Chinese stocks.

We’ll see yet again if the hopes embedded in equity markets are discounting a future in which Chinese policymakers actually do more to shore up the economy and financial markets. 

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Lionsgate closes higher on Netflix acquisition rumor, streaming giant denies report

Shares for the film production company Lionsgate soared on Tuesday following rumors of a potential buyout.

According to a person familiar with the possible merger and acquisitions deal, streaming giant Netflix is one of the companies that may be interested in buying Lionsgate Studios, per reporting by Semafor. A Netflix spokesperson denied the rumor to Deadline.

Neither Lionsgate nor Netflix confirmed the news, but nevertheless the stock climbed, closing up 14%. The stock fell 4.6% in premarket trading after Netflix denied the rumor.

Netflix closed lower on news that Fox will acquire Roku in an approximately $22 billion deal after it was also rumored that the streaming company was interested in that acquisition. “Netflix did not make a bid for Roku,” a spokesperson told Semafor. This comes after Netflix withdrew its buyout bid for Warner Bros. Discovery earlier this year.

Lionsgate’s shares are up 77% since January. Lionsgate owns massive franchises like “John Wick” and “The Hunger Games.” The film company has a market cap of approximately $4.7 billion, making it roughly 5x smaller than Roku and 13x smaller than Warner Bros.

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Oil tumbles below $80 to 3-month low on US-Iran deal

Oil prices slid to their lowest levels in more than three months today after a preliminary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran raised expectations that more crude could return to global markets and key shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz could reopen.

Brent crude fell below $78 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate dropped to $73.31, extending losses as traders priced in lower geopolitical risk premiums tied to Middle East supply disruptions.

The preliminary pact announced by President Donald Trump and Iranian leaders establishes a 60-day ceasefire to end the active hostilities that have choked the Middle East since late February. A formal memorandum of understanding is scheduled to be officially signed in Switzerland this Friday, according to Bloomberg report.

Trump said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened when the agreement is signed in Switzerland on Friday, writing on Truth Social, “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!

US Energy Department data, meanwhile, showed that Americas strategic oil stockpiles sank last week to their lowest level since 1983, indicating sustained demand to rebuild them even if the Mideast conflict ends.

Stocks that moved lower:

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Eos Energy surges on commercial launch of second battery production line

Eos Energy Enterprises is surging in early trading after announcing the official start of commercial production at its second automated battery manufacturing line.

In a statement, the company said this milestone positions it to scale production of its proprietary zinc-based long-duration energy storage systems to meet rising commercial demand.

Management touted the enhanced efficiency of this facility, with design upgrades slashing raw material travel by 86% and shortening the physical production line length by 40% compared to Line 1.

“Battery Line 2 demonstrates our ability to continuously improve as we scale,” said John Mahaz, Chief Operating Officer of Eos. “It validates that our manufacturing system can be replicated and scaled with discipline.”

The battery energy storage company confirmed that while subassemblies will continue coming online through the early third quarter, full production capacity is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026. The ultimate goal is to hit an aggregate 4 gigawatt-hours of annual manufacturing capacity by the end of 2026. Management also highlighted that Battery Line 1 already surpassed its full-year 2025 output within the first 164 days of 2026.

Today’s announcement builds on recent operational momentum for Eos, which posted better-than-expected Q1 sales and announced a joint venture with Cerberus Capital Management in May. However, shares are still down 37% year to date.

For the full year, Eos still expects to achieve revenues between $300 million and $400 million, in line with its previously provided guidance.

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Luke Kawa

Qualcomm reportedly in talks to acquire AI chip design company Tenstorrent

Qualcomm is in talks to acquire AI chip design firm Tenstorrent for $8 billion to $10 billion, according to The Information.

This transaction, if completed, would be another concrete signal of the San Diego-based chip company’s attempt to carve out a niche in the upstream AI space (data centers), rather than focusing on end-user devices.

Qualcomm’s key business of handset chips has fallen on hard times, particularly in China, due to the memory chip shortage.

Less than eight weeks ago, the chip company was the lowlight in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, down about 20% year to date.

Shares proceeded to surge over 60%, buoyed by optimism that the rising AI tide will lift all boats. With the release of Q2 earnings, CEO Cristiano Amon said that initial shipments of AI chips to a “leading hyperscaler” were on track for later this year, and to expect more on the company’s AI growth plans at its investor day on June 24 (next week). Last month, Bloomberg reported that Qualcomm is poised to sell “millions” of AI chips to TikTok parent ByteDance.

Established AI chip giants and hyperscalers alike have reached agreements with or gobbled up burgeoning AI chip companies as the boom rolls on. In December, Nvidia announced a major licensing deal with AI inference specialist Groq, while Meta bought AI chip startup Rivos in September.

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