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Luke Kawa

Oscar Health whipsaws after preliminary Q2 earnings and guidance affirm it’s suffering just like Centene

Oscar Health shares are volatile this morning after the company released preliminary second-quarter results showing a big operating loss. Shares traded as much as 10% lower and as much as 8.7% higher in the wake of this news, and are currently down about 3% as of 8:20 a.m. ET.

Management expects a $230 million loss from operations in the three months ending June 30, while analysts had anticipated operating income of $55.5 million.

The preannouncement was prompted by “a review of 2025 Marketplace data (‘2Q Risk Adjustment Reports’) from Wakely, an independent actuarial firm, that analyzes paid claims submissions through April 30, 2025, for most Marketplace insurance carriers.”

It’s shades of Centene, another company with significant exposure to the ACA marketplace, which cratered and pulled Oscar down with it after pulling its 2025 guidance when Wakely’s data showed the assumptions underpinning its outlook were all wrong. The downdraft following that release at the start of the month led to Oscar Health erasing its year-to-date gains.

Per the Oscar Health press release:

“The analysis of the 2Q Risk Adjustment Reports, covering nearly 100% of Oscar’s geographic footprint, shows that overall ACA Marketplace risk scores, a measure of the average morbidity of the market, have increased by more than the Company’s prior estimates. Based on the reports, the Company now expects a medical loss ratio of 86.0% to 87.0% for full year 2025. Utilization by Oscar’s members remained elevated in the second quarter of 2025, however cost trends moderated as compared to the first quarter of 2025.”

In February, Oscar offered full-year guidance anticipating operating earnings of about $250 million. That’s now flipped to guidance for a $250 million loss. That’s driven by the aforementioned much higher outlook for its medical loss ratio, from around 81.2% to about 86.5% at the midpoint of the guidance. However, management does have a brighter view for revenues, expecting about $12.1 billion for the full year versus the prior view for $11.25 billion.

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Opendoor surges on bullish options bets as traders look to potential real estate tokenization

Opendoor Technologies is surging on Friday amid bullish options bets and social media posts referencing unconfirmed rumors about the company.

The stock moved higher in the premarket session after the soft inflation report boosted stocks and briefly pushed long-term bond yields lower (positive for a real estate company). But the real gains came after the opening bell rang and options demand picked up.

As of 12:11 p.m. ET, roughly 664,000 call options have changed hands versus a 10-day average of about 364,000 for a full session.

What seems to be galvanizing members of the “$OPEN Army” is the potential for the company to pursue the tokenization of real-world assets, with Robinhood often bandied about as a potential partner in this endeavor.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

Opendoor bulls have often pointed to signs that Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev appears to be fond of the company, from what appeared on-screen during a demo of a social trading feature at HOOD’s conference in Las Vegas in September to offering support to Opendoor CEO Kaz Nejatian in setting up an opportunity for retail shareholders to ask questions during the online real estate company’s next earnings call.

Opendoor is currently in a quiet period ahead of earnings, which restricts what type of announcements a company can make.

The call options seeing the most demand expire this Friday with strike prices of $8, $8.50, and $9.

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Beyond Meat gains amid slightly better-than-expected Q3 sales, positive commentary on legal issues

Shares of Beyond Meat built on their premarket gains after the plant-based meat seller reported preliminary Q3 sales a bit ahead of Wall Street’s expectations, before paring this advance after the market opened.

For the three months ended September 27, management said net revenue would be approximately $70 million. That’s in line with their guidance range of $68 million to $73 million, but Wall Street was expecting sales to skew toward the lower end of that range, at $68.7 million.

However, its anticipated gross margin of 10% to 11% is lower than analysts had been expecting (13.8%). That’s still the case even adjusting for expenses related to its downsizing of operations in China, which would have left margins around 12% to 13%, per Beyond.

Perhaps more importantly, the company provided positive commentary regarding arbitration discussions with a former co-manufacturer that appear to bring it closer to a resolution while limiting potential damages:

“As previously disclosed, in March 2024, a former co-manufacturer brought an action against the Company in a confidential arbitration proceeding claiming that the Company inappropriately terminated its agreement with the co-manufacturer and claimed damages of at least $73.0 million. On September 15, 2025, the arbitrator issued an interim award (the ‘Interim Award’) and found that the Company had a valid basis to terminate the agreement with the Manufacturer. The details of the Interim Award are confidential, and a final arbitration award has not been issued. Additional proceedings will be held to determine the award of attorneys’ fees, prejudgment interest and costs, if any, before a final arbitration award will be issued. On September 25, 2025, the Manufacturer filed a request with the arbitrator to re-open the arbitration hearing. On September 29, 2025, the Company opposed this request. On October 20, 2025, the arbitrator denied the Manufacturer’s request.”

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