Markets
markets
Luke Kawa
7/22/25

Oscar Health whipsaws after preliminary Q2 earnings and guidance affirm it’s suffering just like Centene

Oscar Health shares are volatile this morning after the company released preliminary second-quarter results showing a big operating loss. Shares traded as much as 10% lower and as much as 8.7% higher in the wake of this news, and are currently down about 3% as of 8:20 a.m. ET.

Management expects a $230 million loss from operations in the three months ending June 30, while analysts had anticipated operating income of $55.5 million.

The preannouncement was prompted by “a review of 2025 Marketplace data (‘2Q Risk Adjustment Reports’) from Wakely, an independent actuarial firm, that analyzes paid claims submissions through April 30, 2025, for most Marketplace insurance carriers.”

It’s shades of Centene, another company with significant exposure to the ACA marketplace, which cratered and pulled Oscar down with it after pulling its 2025 guidance when Wakely’s data showed the assumptions underpinning its outlook were all wrong. The downdraft following that release at the start of the month led to Oscar Health erasing its year-to-date gains.

Per the Oscar Health press release:

“The analysis of the 2Q Risk Adjustment Reports, covering nearly 100% of Oscar’s geographic footprint, shows that overall ACA Marketplace risk scores, a measure of the average morbidity of the market, have increased by more than the Company’s prior estimates. Based on the reports, the Company now expects a medical loss ratio of 86.0% to 87.0% for full year 2025. Utilization by Oscar’s members remained elevated in the second quarter of 2025, however cost trends moderated as compared to the first quarter of 2025.”

In February, Oscar offered full-year guidance anticipating operating earnings of about $250 million. That’s now flipped to guidance for a $250 million loss. That’s driven by the aforementioned much higher outlook for its medical loss ratio, from around 81.2% to about 86.5% at the midpoint of the guidance. However, management does have a brighter view for revenues, expecting about $12.1 billion for the full year versus the prior view for $11.25 billion.

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Luke Kawa
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Traders resurrected the long-dead “confidence fairy,” and it's juicing consumption despite the tariffs

It’s not the stock market versus the economy. It’s that the stock market is the economy.

2017 New York Comic Con - Day 1
markets
Luke Kawa
9/5/25

Robinhood, AppLovin, and Emcor pop on announcement of addition to S&P 500

Shares of Robinhood Markets, AppLovin, and Emcor are all rallying in post-market trading on Friday upon news that they’re being added to the S&P 500.

Shares of the brokerage popped 7.2%, the adtech company rose 7.8%, and the construction company was up a more modest 2.7% in the minutes following the announcement.

(Robinhood Markets, Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

Strategy, another stock rumored to be in the running for inclusion in the benchmark US stock index that has been passed over, sank 2.5% in postmarket trading.

Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa
9/5/25
S&P 500 falls as rate-cut optimism fizzles

The S&P 500 gave up early gains to close down 0.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 eked out a 0.1% advance and the Russell 2000 outperformed, rising 0.5%.

Brown bear on a rock
markets
Nia Warfield
9/5/25

Kenvue plunges after reports suggest RFK Jr. may try to link prenatal Tylenol use to autism

Kenvue sank 15% Friday after a WSJ report said Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may attempt to link prenatal Tylenol use to autism in an upcoming government report.

Kenvue, the maker of Tylenol and formerly a division of Johnson & Johnson prior to a 2023 spin-out, pushed back, saying the science shows “no causal link” between acetaminophen use during pregnancy and autism, and pointed to FDA and medical groups that agree on the drug’s safety.

The FDA itself has found no “clear evidence” of harm but advises pregnant women to consult providers before taking OTC meds.

The report is also expected to float a folate-derived therapy as a potential treatment.

Tylenol is just the latest well-established medication to face scrutiny under Kennedy, who has already stirred controversy by reshaping vaccine policy and amplifying doubts about mRNA shots.

Kenvue shares are now down over 18% year-to-date.

RFK Jr., HHS to Link Autism to Tylenol Use in Pregnancy and Folate Deficiencies

RFK Jr.

The FDA itself has found no “clear evidence” of harm but advises pregnant women to consult providers before taking OTC meds.

The report is also expected to float a folate-derived therapy as a potential treatment.

Tylenol is just the latest well-established medication to face scrutiny under Kennedy, who has already stirred controversy by reshaping vaccine policy and amplifying doubts about mRNA shots.

Kenvue shares are now down over 18% year-to-date.

markets
Max Knoblauch
9/5/25

Lucid surges following 6 days of losses after headlines misidentify Cantor Fitzgerald’s lower split-adjusted price target as a good thing

It’s been a shortened week, but still a rough one for Lucid. Investor blowback to the luxury EV maker’s 1-for-10 reverse stock split has sent shares to all time lows this week.

After six straight days of closing lower, Wall Street appears to have decided enough is enough and is loading up on Lucid shares on Friday, sending them up 13% in recent trading. As of 2:10pm eastern, Lucid trading volumes were at more than 240% of their 30 day average.

Some of the move could be attributed to traders reading headlines that don’t take into consideration Lucid’s reverse split. Cantor Fitzgerald on Friday slapped a new price target on Lucid of $20, compared to its previous target of $3. Some news outlets (not us!) presented that as an increase. The problem: With the 1-for-10 reverse split in effect, a comparable price target would have been $30. The new $20 target is actually... a cut.

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