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Palantir fails to hold the line as momentum cracks

Last year’s retail trading fave Palantir tumbled alongside popular tech behemoths like Tesla and Nvidia in early trading on Monday.

The defense, data analytics, and enterprise AI software firm is on track for its fifth consecutive down day, which has lopped 15% of the shares and sunk the share price once again below its 50-day moving average, a technical level often seen as providing a modest support for share prices that it had recently cleared.

With the first hour of trading in the bag, Palantir is off its worst levels. (It was down as much as 8%.)

Palantir isn’t the only tech stock taking a beating on Monday, amid concerns about the Trump administration’s continued tariff threats as well as their effect on the economy, inflation, investor confidence, and what the Fed will do with interest rates this year.

But Palantir also has specific exposure to the Trump administration’s push to sharply reduce government spending, given that the US government is its top customer.

In a note published last week, Morgan Stanley software analysts put the company on a list of stocks “at higher risk for downward estimate revisions” because of their reliance on federal government spending.

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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