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Protesters outside a New York City Tesla dealership on March 1 (Leonardo Munoz/Getty Images)

Palantir shareholders unsure if Musk’s attention is a good thing or not

The tech oligarch’s de facto takeover of the federal bureaucracy has huge implications for the company, whose biggest client remains the US government.

Matt Phillips

Elon Musk has been a fan of Palantir and its brash CEO for a while now. Over the weekend, he again demonstrated his support for Alex Karp after his new book topped The New York Times’ list of nonfiction bestsellers.

But not everyone seems comfortable with the level of attention the Tesla CEO is giving Palantir. While Musk’s Trump adjacency made Tesla one of the big winners of the market’s postelection run-up last year, his close association with right-wing politics both in the US and worldwide has had costs as well. Amid cratering sales in Europe, and signals that China sees Tesla as a potential point of leverage on the administration, Tesla stock has cratered by over 40% since December.

Over at a subreddit frequented by Palantir shareholders, Musk’s latest endorsement for Karp prompted a wave of debate both from those uncomfortable with his politics and work for the Trump administration ...

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byu/Fun-Journalist2276 from discussion
inPLTR

... to those who see a closer association with Musk as a clear boon to Palantir...

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byu/Fun-Journalist2276 from discussion
inPLTR

... and others who essentially say their investment in Palantir was premised in part on what they see as the potential corruption of the Trump administration and DOGE.

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byu/Fun-Journalist2276 from discussion
inPLTR

Musk’s position as the Trump administration’s semiofficial deputy, tasked with cutting the federal workforce and taking unprecedented control of key parts of the US government’s tech infrastructure, could clearly be consequential for Palantir. The data analytics and AI software company’s main customer remains the US government, due to its long standing focus on defense and intelligence applications.

On Wall Street, analysts have been trying to game out how the Trump administration’s DC disruptions — including potentially unprecedented cuts to defense spending and Musk’s DOGE — will work out for contractors.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Palantir bull, wrote in a note out Monday:

“Palantir is so well positioned for this new disciplined spending environment at the Pentagon and this will ultimately be a positive growth catalyst as the various programs are scrutinized and as Karp & Co. get a bigger seat at the table in the Beltway. We also believe Palantir is attached to many programs/contracts in the DOD that are safe and not at risk of getting cut in this new spending climate given their high priority.”

Likewise, BofA analysts suggested in a note that some software and IT services companies would benefit from the administration’s cuts to the federal workforce:

“We see the cohort as net beneficiaries in a market landscape measured by modernization, efficiency, and outsourcing. Booz Allen Hamilton (Booz Allen Hamilton) and Palantir (PLTR) are most strongly positioned to early DOGE actions, in our view.”

At any rate, both Tesla and Palantir are up on the day, after tumbling 20% and 30% over the last two weeks, suggesting that the “bro bubble” may have a bit of air left in it yet.

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Carvana craters after Q4 earnings miss estimates

Used car retailer Carvana plummeted after fourth-quarter profits came in shy of estimates.

Adjusted EBITDA of $511 million came in below the consensus call for $535.7 million, more than offsetting better-than-expected sales of $5.6 billion (estimate: $5.27 billion).

Carvana sold 163,522 used vehicles to retail customers in the quarter, up 43% from last year and ahead of expectations. With that result, Carvana further closes its retail sales gap with rival CarMax, which sold 169,557 vehicles in its most recent quarter.

Carvana posted a retail gross profit per vehicle of $3,076, down 7.7% from the same period last year. In a letter to shareholders, Carvana said its reconditioning costs came in higher than expected in Q4, which led to an additional impact on retail gross profit per unit. Lower shipping fee revenue, higher non-vehicle costs, and higher industrywide retail depreciation rates also drove the decline, the company said.

Carvana said it expects to see elevated reconditioning costs again in the first quarter, but expects a sequential increase in retail GPU. Carvana said it expects “significant growth in both retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA” in the first quarter and full year ahead.

As of Wednesday’s close, Carvana shares were down about 24% since an all-time closing high in January, after a report from short seller Gotham City questioning its accounting practices sent the stock reeling. A Carvana spokesperson told Sherwood News that the report was “inaccurate and intentionally misleading.”

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DoorDash reports earnings miss, underwhelming earnings guidance

DoorDash reported earnings results that missed Wall Street expectations and provided underwhelming earnings guidance Wednesday after the bell, which it attributed to harsh weather and increased spending.

For the final three months of 2025, DoorDash reported:

  • Earnings per share of $0.48, compared to the $0.59 analysts polled by FactSet were expecting.

  • Revenue of $3.9 billion, in line with the $3.9 billion analysts were penciling in.

  • Gross order value (the total amount spent on the platform) of $29.7 billion, compared to the $29.2 billion analysts were expecting.

For the current quarter, the company expects:

  • GOV between $31.0 billion and $31.8 billion, versus the $30.7 billion analysts are expecting.

  • Adjusted EBITDA between $675 million and $775 million, far below the $801.9 million analysts are expecting. The company said spending on Deliveroo, its recent UK acquisition, as well as extreme winter weather in the US are weighing on its profit guidance.

Shares fell as much as 11% in after-hours trading. The stock is down more than 20% so far this year.

DoorDash’s costs have gone up as it ramps up investment in autonomous delivery and international expansion, among other things. “This is a massive and expensive undertaking and honestly one you shouldn’t do if you thought your best days were behind you,” CEO Tony Xu said in a letter to shareholders.

Ethan Feller, a strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said the underlying business remains strong even if the stock faces pressure in the near term.

“None of these are structural issues, but soft guidance is soft guidance — and the market rarely gives credit for context when a stock is already under pressure,” he said.

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Figma spikes after reporting better-than-expected Q4 results, blowout Q1 and full-year sales guidance

Figma reported Q4 results that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations and robust sales guidance for the current quarter and full year.

Shares are spiking in after-hours trading.

For the final three months of 2025, the digital design and development platform company reported:

  • Revenue of $303.8 million, compared to the $293.1 million analysts were penciling in.

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.08, compared to the $0.07 analysts polled by Bloomberg expected.

For sales, management expects:

  • Q1 revenue between $315 million and $317 million (estimate: $293.6 million).

  • Full-year revenue between $1.366 billion and $1.374 billion (estimate: $1.29 billion).

The lower ends of these ranges are above the highest analyst sales estimates for both Q1 and 2026 as a whole.

This marks the company’s second earnings report since going public over the summer. Its share price has taken a hit this year alongside many of its software peers, and management will be looking to show that AI can be an accelerant, rather than a threat, to its business. On Tuesday, Figma announced a partnership with Anthropic to integrate AI coding tools.

“Our healthy balance sheet and positive free cash flow gives us the flexibility to continue investing in AI and the platform while maintaining financial discipline for sustainable, long-term growth,” CFO Praveer Melwani said in the press release.

As of the close on Wednesday, the stock was down 35% for the year and roughly 80% below its closing level at the time of its July IPO.

markets

Record labels dip as Google adds AI music generation to its Gemini app

Google on Wednesday said it’s rolling out the ability for Gemini app users aged 18 and up to generate 30-second AI music tracks.

The tool is available globally, as Google launches beta access to its Lyria 3 generative-AI music model.

Addressing the potential for skirting the lines of copyright law (as seen in other recent DeepMind AI tools), Google said:

“If your prompt names a specific artist, Gemini will take this as broad creative inspiration and create a track that shares a similar style or mood. We also have filters in place to check outputs against existing content. We recognize that our approach might not be foolproof, so you can report content that may violate your rights or the rights of others.”

Shares of record labels including Universal Music Group and Warner Music dropped 2% on the news. Spotify briefly dipped before rebounding, and Sony shares also saw a slight decline.

Last month, Morgan Stanley published a survey that found up to 60% of Gen Z respondents listen to AI music, for an average of three hours per week. Earlier this year, Bandcamp banned all music wholly or substantially generated using AI.

Addressing the potential for skirting the lines of copyright law (as seen in other recent DeepMind AI tools), Google said:

“If your prompt names a specific artist, Gemini will take this as broad creative inspiration and create a track that shares a similar style or mood. We also have filters in place to check outputs against existing content. We recognize that our approach might not be foolproof, so you can report content that may violate your rights or the rights of others.”

Shares of record labels including Universal Music Group and Warner Music dropped 2% on the news. Spotify briefly dipped before rebounding, and Sony shares also saw a slight decline.

Last month, Morgan Stanley published a survey that found up to 60% of Gen Z respondents listen to AI music, for an average of three hours per week. Earlier this year, Bandcamp banned all music wholly or substantially generated using AI.

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