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Nia Warfield7/30/25

Peloton spins higher after big upgrade from UBS

Peloton shares climbed 15% Wednesday morning after UBS slapped a “buy” rating on the stock, saying it could take off from here.

The bank hiked its price target from $7.50 to $11 (more than 50% higher than current levels), citing recent subscription price hikes and early signs that user declines may be leveling off.

“Interactive visits for May improved to flattish [year-over-year] from down -11% in May, while active users have turned positive in May/June after declines since the beginning of the year,” analyst Arpine Kocharyan wrote in a note indicating better traffic and engagement data.

UBS also sees room for upside to Peloton’s 2026 earnings outlook, thanks to top-line growth and deeper cost cuts. That includes trimming general expenses, curbing tech debt, and shrinking its showroom footprint. UBS said a recent 11% to 12% hike in connected fitness subscription prices could bring in up to $100 million annually, even when factoring in churn.

Analysts polled by FactSet now have an average “overweight” (or buy) rating on the stock for the first time since 2022, as Peloton doubles down on cost cuts and a steadier business model.

Even with today’s boost, Peloton shares are still down about 18% year to date.

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Marvell sinks after Benchmark cuts company, saying that it lost its Amazon custom chip design business

Over the past two trading days, Marvell Technology has faced vexing questions about its relationship with its top two custom chip hyperscaler customers.

Shares are tumbling, down 9% as of 10:21 a.m. ET.

Late last week, The Information reported that Microsoft, its second-biggest custom chip buyer, was in talks to shift that business from Marvell to Broadcom.

Now, Benchmark analyst Cody Acree thinks that Marvell’s largest custom chip customer, Amazon, has done the same, writing that “we now have a high degree of conviction that the company has lost both Amazon’s Trainium3 and 4 designs to its Taiwanese competitor, Alchip.”

Acree downgraded Marvell to “hold” from “buy,” recommending that investors take profit after its post-earnings bounce.

(Harlan Sur at JPMorgan, for what it’s worth, does not believe this is the case, pointing to Marvell’s acquisition of Celestial AI as providing key technology that aligns the company with Amazon’s future chip design needs.)

During the conference call that followed earnings, Sur asked Marvell CEO Matt Murphy about its role with Amazon chips going forward.

“What I would say, which is incorporated into our numbers, is that our product transition from where we are today with our lead XPU customer to the next one is baked into all the numbers I gave you. And yes, I got the backlog, and I got the orders, and we got great visibility there,” Murphy said.

Murphy’s answer was not quite definitive, according to Acree, who thinks that Marvell’s revenue forecast is being “driven by expected continued Trainium2 volumes and a Kuiper low-earth orbit engagement and not the successful transition to Trainium3 designs that many on the sell-side have concluded.”

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J. Edward Moreno11m

Structure Therapeutics posts mid-stage weight-loss pill data in line with Eli Lilly rival

Structure Therapeutics soared in early trading after it reported mid-stage results for its weight-loss pill that were roughly in line with Eli Lilly’s competing product.

The San Francisco-based biotech reported that patients lost roughly 11.3% of their body weight on a lower dose of the pill, aleniglipron, in a mid-stage study. That puts it roughly in line with Lilly’s competing pill, orforglipron, and slightly below Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy.

Both Lilly and Novo’s pills are awaiting regulatory approval and are expected to go to market next year. While the weight-loss numbers were encouraging, Structure’s pill did report higher rates of side effects like nausea and vomiting.

Investors have been closely watching drugmakers’ once-daily pills, which could replace the weekly injections currently on the market. While pills tend to be less effective than shots, they are less expensive to manufacture than prefilled injection pens and are more inviting to squeamish patients.

Warner Brothers To Put Itself Up For Sale

Paramount launches hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share, trying to upend Netflix deal

Paramount is taking its Warner Bros. Discovery purchase effort straight to shareholders.

Max Knoblauch1h

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Max Knoblauch2h

Rivian, Lucid, and Tesla all downgraded by Morgan Stanley on tougher EV market

US EV makers are seeing red in premarket trading on Monday, following a fresh downgrade from Morgan Stanley. Lucid, Rivian, and Tesla shares were all trading lower in early hours.

Analyst Andrew Percoco downgraded Rivian from “equalweight” to “underweight” and dropped his price target to $12 — 33% below the stock’s price as of Friday’s close. Percoco wrote that Rivian faces a host of upcoming headwinds, fueled by slowing adoption amid the end of the EV tax credit. According to Morgan Stanley, Rivian’s lower-priced R2 SUV could cannibalize demand for its other vehicles.

The firm also downgraded Lucid to “underweight,” slashing its price target to $10 from a previous target of $30. The new figure would represent an all-time low for the luxury EV maker. Percoco highlighted the potential for further dilution for Lucid investors given the company’s cash needs.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla from “overweight” to “equalweight,” citing high AI expectations, but the bank bumped its price target to $425.

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CoreWeave tumbles after announcing $2 billion convertible debt offering

Shares of CoreWeave tumbled in early trading after the company announced plans to raise $2 billion through the sale of convertible senior notes due in 2031 in a private offering.

The deal includes an option to boost the sale to $2.3 billion. Some portion of the capital raised will be used to enter into capped call transactions designed to limit potential dilution in the event the stock rises enough that noteholders convert their holdings to shares, and the remainder of the funds will be used for general corporate purposes.

While much of the focus on AI credit risk has centered on Oracle, CoreWeave hasn’t been immune from fixed-income jitters. Its existing 2030 and 2031 notes, which carry coupons of 9.25% and 9%, respectively, saw significant selling pressure from early October through late November.

It’s also been viewed as a less than pristine customer by credit investors. Investors demanded a higher coupon for Applied Digital’s bond offering compared to similar offerings by Terawulf and Cipher, in part because those companies are being backstopped by Alphabet, while Applied Digital is relying on CoreWeave as its key tenant.

A month ago, the company announced that it had increased its revolving credit facility to $2.5 billion, from $1.5 billion, to provide “enhanced flexibility” and “support its growth initiatives.”

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