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Scholz Inaugurates Europe's First IBM Quantum Data Center
A model of IBM Quantum (Thomas Niedermueller/Getty Images)

Quantum stocks sputter after nearly doubling thanks to the US government calling the technology an R&D priority

The happiest words for an emergent technology: “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.”

Luke Kawa

Quantum computing stocks have been on an absolute tear, driven in large part by rumors of more US government support for the nascent technology that were realized in a memo earlier this week highlighting quantum technology as an R&D budgetary priority for fiscal 2027.

Emergent technologies — most notably the internet — have historically benefited from a strong government push. Even now, the President Trump-backed AI joint venture known as Stargate is playing a starring role in driving billions in market value for established tech giants like Oracle.

The quantum industry, and the investors flocking to the space, are hoping that their development is similarly turbocharged by state support.

“Agencies should deepen focused efforts, such as centers and core programs, to advance basic quantum information science, while also prioritizing R&D that expands the understanding of end user applications and supports the maturation of enabling technologies,” the memo says. “Opportunities to support pre-competitive R&D through mechanisms such as consortia and other technology transition efforts, investment in critical infrastructure and testbeds, and advanced manufacturing to enable next-generation quantum devices should also be pursued.”

The memo, which was written by Director Russell Vought and Michael Kratsios, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, also calls calls for agencies to “prioritize R&D for cybersecurity resilience, to ensure the Nation is prepared with post-quantum cryptography to defend against future threats.”

The news is being cheered by quantum computing execs, who would also appreciate some more urgency behind this support for their industry.

“It’s encouraging to see the Trump Administration recognize that the private sector must play a central role in applied research and commercialization for quantum technologies,” D-Wave CEO Dr. Alan Baratz told Sherwood News. “As the government explores emerging technologies, we urge policymakers to consider how quantum and AI can work together to address pressing public-sector challenges. While these priorities are reflected in the FY27 budget, there’s no need to wait.”

The handful of pure-play quantum computing companies we track closely — IonQ’s, D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and Quantum Computing — have added a whopping $23 billion in market capitalization over the past month, nearly doubling in the process through Wednesday’s close. That hot run is reversing course on Thursday, however.

Other positive catalysts for the industry over this period include M&A activity, tech breakthroughs, new deals with governments and affiliated agencies, and a wave of price target hikes by Wall Street — even as those more optimistic outlooks have been outstripped by each and every pure-play quantum stock’s recent rallies.

That being said, current valuations for quantum computing firms embed a lot of optimism around the idea that a government push will soon lead to explosive revenue growth in the future. Combined, these firms have generated less than $100 million over the past four quarters. And these companies have their fair share of detractors, including former hedge fund manager and biotech founder Martin Shkreli, who has been a vocal opponent of their businesses. Short interest as a share of float is about 18%, on average, across these four stocks as of mid-September, per exchange data.

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DraftKings drops after issuing downbeat 2026 sales, profit forecasts

DraftKings plunged after the sports betting company gave downbeat guidance for the current year.

Shares were down 15% in recent after-hours trading.

It forecast: 

  • Revenue between $6.5 billion and $6.9 billion, compared with analysts’ estimates of $7.29 billion, according to FactSet. 

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $900 million, compared with estimates of $981 million.

For the fourth quarter, DraftKings posted: 

  • Revenue of $1.99 billion, in line with Wall Street’s $1.99 billion expectation 

  • Earnings per share of $0.25, compared with a consensus estimate of $0.09. 

It forecast: 

  • Revenue between $6.5 billion and $6.9 billion, compared with analysts’ estimates of $7.29 billion, according to FactSet. 

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $900 million, compared with estimates of $981 million.

For the fourth quarter, DraftKings posted: 

  • Revenue of $1.99 billion, in line with Wall Street’s $1.99 billion expectation 

  • Earnings per share of $0.25, compared with a consensus estimate of $0.09. 

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Rivian climbs after posting better-than-expected Q4 results; sees R2 SUV hitting the market in Q2

EV maker Rivian reported its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings results after markets closed on Thursday. Its shares climbed 13% in after-hours trading.

In the fourth quarter, which coincided with the end of federal EV tax credits in the US, Rivian booked $1.29 billion in revenue, down 26% year over year but above analysts’ expectations of $1.26 billion. The company posted an adjusted loss of $0.54 per share in Q4, compared to the expected loss of $0.68 per share.

Rivian forecast full-year adjusted losses in the range of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion, compared to the $1.75 billion loss expected by Wall Street.

2026 is set to be a big year for the company, with its upcoming $45,000 R2 SUV planned to begin deliveries in the second quarter. Rivian issued full-year delivery guidance of between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles, compared to Wall Street’s expectations of 65,700. Analysts polled by FactSet expect 14,700 of those 2026 deliveries to be R2s. Last year, Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles.

“It’s incredibly exciting to see the early strong reviews of the R2 pre-production builds, and we can’t wait to get them to our customers next quarter,” CEO RJ Scaringe said.

markets

Arista Networks soars as it beats on Q4 EPS and revenue, gives upbeat sales guidance

Arista Networks, which sells equipment and software used to run and monitor data center networks, reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and sales after the close of trading on Thursday.

Arista shares were up about 9% in the after-hours session.

Here’s what the switch and router maker reported:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.82 vs. Wall Street expectations for $0.76, according to FactSet.

  • Sales of $2.49 billion vs. an expected $2.38 billion, per FactSet data.

  • A non-GAAP Q4 gross margin, a measure of how profitable a company’s core products are to produce, of 63.4% vs. previous guidance of 62% to 63%.

  • Guidance for Q1 sales of approximately $2.6 billion vs. the $2.46 billion expected on Wall Street.

  • Guidance for a Q1 non-GAAP gross margin of between 62% and 63% vs. the 63% FactSet forecast.

markets

Coinbase posts record stablecoin revenue but falls short of expectations for Q4 sales

Shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase jumped after-hours on Thursday after the company reported record stablecoin revenue, despite Q4 revenue numbers that missed Wall Street expectations. 

The stock was up 3.1% in recent trading.

  • Revenue came in at $1.78 billion vs. the $1.81 billion consensus analyst expectation, per FactSet.

  • Transaction revenue was $982.7 million vs. a $998 million forecast.

  • The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.66, compared with $3.37 a year earlier.

  • Stablecoin revenue hit a record $364.1 million, up 61% from the same quarter the previous year.

Earlier Thursday, Coinbase seemingly suffered an outage, saying it was “aware that customers may be unable to buy, sell, transfer on Coinbase.com at this time,” but noting that “your funds are safe.” The company said the issue was resolved just over an hour later.

Coinbase shares — which were added to the S&P 500 last May — have been crushed by the downturn in crypto this year. Through Wednesday’s close, the stock was down by more than 30% in 2026. And that was before the stock caught a double downgrade on Thursday before the report.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.