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Retail traders’ success is thanks to doubling down on two things that have worked: “AI” and “buy the dip”

Main Street bought after weakness at three distinct moments early in the year.

This year, we’ve seen evidence that the increased presence of retail traders is changing how stocks behave around earnings announcements, and even forcing institutional investors to buy what they’re buying.

“2025 is set to be a record year for retail traders,” JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain wrote on the footprint of the retail community, noting that inflows by the cohort are “tracking at ~1.9 times the 5-year average, 50% above the levels seen last year and 12% above the previous peak seen during the retail mania of 2021.”

And for these traders, it’s also been a successful stretch because of a continued willingness to double down on a theme that’s been the biggest driver of market success in recent years (AI) and a tactic that hasn’t yet let them down (buy the dip).

“Retail investors began the year by sizeably buying the dip during three episodes of weakness (Post-DeepSeek correction, Momentum Unwind, and Liberation Day meltdown) — building 75% of their year to date single stock position during Jan-Apr and making Tech, particularly Nvidia and Tesla, clear winners of this trend,” he wrote.

JPM cumulative retail buying
JPMorgan

(Side note: poor Apple!)

For years, retail has been building an increasingly de facto “overweight AI, underweight everything else” position.

“In fact, retail investors have proved their conviction in the AI theme by funding large purchases in AI30/Mag 7 with holdings in the SPX 470,” Jain added. “This bifurcation has been persistent since 2023 following the launch of ChatGPT.”

JPM retail quarterly buying activity
JPMorgan

Since the release of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, the maximum number of days between fresh highs in the S&P 500 has been 128 sessions (or a little over six months), a milestone-free dry spell that ran from February 19 to June 27 of this year. During that period and thereafter, AI-geared stocks have played a key role in fueling the market’s gains.

As such, buying the dip — and doing so across AI stocks in particular — has been an extremely potent combination.

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Broadcom jumps after locking down Google as a customer for future generations of TPUs

Shares of Broadcom rose more than 3% in postmarket trading on Monday after its most important customer doubled down on the custom chip specialist’s ability to produce its most valuable commodity.

In a filing, Broadcom said that it entered into a long-term agreement with Google to supply future generations of TPUs (custom AI accelerator chips) as well as a supply assurance agreement for networking and other equipment “through up to 2031.”

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon indicated that Broadcom’s investor relations team told him that Google’s long-term agreement “has revenue commitments that go along with it through the timeline.”

Gemini 3 launched to rave reviews in November. The model was trained on TPUs co-developed by Broadcom and Google.

The same Monday filing showed that Broadcom, Google, and Anthropic expanded a partnership that will see the Claude developer access 3.5 gigawatts of AI compute capacity beginning in 2027, powered by the TPUs co-designed by the custom chip specialist and the search giant.

Bernstein’s Rasgon added that Broadcom’s team suggested these 3.5 gigawatts are “only part of a larger partnership over time.” He thinks Broadcom’s fiscal year 2027 guidance for AI revenues of $100 billion “is looking increasingly light” thanks to this news.

For what it’s worth, the enhanced pact with Anthropic hinges upon the firm’s ability to afford AI compute. But based on the insane trajectory of its run-rate revenue that may not be a big hurdle to clear.

“Broadcom’s expanded agreements with Google and Anthropic add rare multi-year visibility, reinforcing a $40-$50 billion AI revenue opportunity tied to Anthropic’s 3.5 gigawatt deployment starting in 2027, while building on the previously disclosed 1GW ($10 billion) starting in 2H,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kunjan Sobhani and Oscar Hernandez Tejada.

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Health insurers surge after Medicare agrees to pay 2.48% more in 2027, a bigger-than-expected boost

Health insurance stocks are surging after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said it plans to boost Medicare Advantage and Part D payments by 2.48% in calendar year 2027.

The likes of CVS, Humana, UnitedHealth, Molina Healthcare, Oscar Health, and Elevance Health are gaining in postmarket trading.

Wall Street analysts had anticipated that rates for 2027 would go up between roughly 1% and 1.5%.

These stocks had gotten crushed in late January when the Trump administration proposed relatively flat federal payment rates.

Insurance companies that provide government-sponsored plans, like Medicare Advantage, faced headwinds from higher-than-expected costs in 2025.

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Iran war winners Dow, LyondellBasell downgraded by Bank of America

Dow, Inc. and LyondellBasell — two petrochemicals stocks that surged as markets priced in shortages due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — should decline as investors focus on the long-term outlook for normalized petrochemical prices once the war resolves, Bank of America analysts wrote in a note downgrading the two stocks Monday.

BofA moved its rating on the shares from “neutral” to “underperform,” writing:

“Over time, as chemical markets normalize, we expect 1) investor focus to shiſt back to ‘normal’ or ‘sustainable’ earnings profiles and 2) the conflict to resolve without material asset rationalization, both of which likely bias shares lower over the next twelve months.”

Analysts also lowered their stance on another petrochemicals and building materials stock, Westlake, to “neutral” from “buy.”

While cutting those ratings, BofA actually raised its more near-term price targets for the shares. It upped LyondellBasell to $68 from $55, and Dow to $35 from $31.

But those price targets still imply declines of more than 10% compared to where both shares were trading late Monday morning. Both stocks are up roughly 30% since the start of the Iran war.

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