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Retail traders’ success is thanks to doubling down on two things that have worked: “AI” and “buy the dip”

Main Street bought after weakness at three distinct moments early in the year.

This year, we’ve seen evidence that the increased presence of retail traders is changing how stocks behave around earnings announcements, and even forcing institutional investors to buy what they’re buying.

“2025 is set to be a record year for retail traders,” JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain wrote on the footprint of the retail community, noting that inflows by the cohort are “tracking at ~1.9 times the 5-year average, 50% above the levels seen last year and 12% above the previous peak seen during the retail mania of 2021.”

And for these traders, it’s also been a successful stretch because of a continued willingness to double down on a theme that’s been the biggest driver of market success in recent years (AI) and a tactic that hasn’t yet let them down (buy the dip).

“Retail investors began the year by sizeably buying the dip during three episodes of weakness (Post-DeepSeek correction, Momentum Unwind, and Liberation Day meltdown) — building 75% of their year to date single stock position during Jan-Apr and making Tech, particularly Nvidia and Tesla, clear winners of this trend,” he wrote.

JPM cumulative retail buying
JPMorgan

(Side note: poor Apple!)

For years, retail has been building an increasingly de facto “overweight AI, underweight everything else” position.

“In fact, retail investors have proved their conviction in the AI theme by funding large purchases in AI30/Mag 7 with holdings in the SPX 470,” Jain added. “This bifurcation has been persistent since 2023 following the launch of ChatGPT.”

JPM retail quarterly buying activity
JPMorgan

Since the release of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, the maximum number of days between fresh highs in the S&P 500 has been 128 sessions (or a little over six months), a milestone-free dry spell that ran from February 19 to June 27 of this year. During that period and thereafter, AI-geared stocks have played a key role in fueling the market’s gains.

As such, buying the dip — and doing so across AI stocks in particular — has been an extremely potent combination.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

markets

Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

markets

Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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