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RIP, Magnificent 7

Nearly everything that made the Magnificent 7 magnificent has disappeared.

Luke Kawa

I have lived through FANG, BAT, GRANOLAS, FAAMG, and enough others to know that the age of the Magnificent 7 is over.

Whatever we’re going through in markets — whether it’s a repair from healthy correction or a dead-cat bounce before the start of something worse — I’m fairly confident that coming out the other side of this, we won’t be talking about Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla as some kind of collective. 

Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings report in May 2023 didn’t just mark the unofficial kickoff for the AI stock market boom. Judging by references in news articles, this was also the time “Magnificent 7” began to live rent-free in investors’ heads.

Now, nearly everything that made the Magnificent 7 “magnificent” is fading. There were three components that underpinned the decision to group these stocks together:

  1. They’re all megacap tech-adjacent stocks.

  2. They were (mostly) growing earnings far faster than the S&P 500, and this was expected to continue.

  3. They consistently outperformed the benchmark US stock index.

Well, No. 1 is still true, so there’s that.

But on the bottom line, there’s not across-the-board magnificence to speak of. For Tesla, there never was. Perhaps, to hearken back to the movie that bears the same name as this group of stocks, it’s the Josh Faraday of the bunch.

The premium earnings per share growth from most of these companies relative to the S&P 500 in 2024 is leading to some convergence in 2025, at best, and outright below-market earnings growth for others.

And the price performance that used to speak for itself now speaks volumes — in the other direction. On average, this is both the deepest decline for the cohort since it became popular as well as its largest underperformance versus the S&P 500.

Now only one member of the cohort — Meta — is outperforming the S&P 500 over the past three months, tying the lowest number since the end of May 2023.

The good news: there’s an infinite number of options to replace “Magnificent 7” in the market lexicon going forward.

Colleagues more creative than myself (like David Crowther, among many others) can now get to work dreaming up the next acronym that defines stock market dominance.

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Exxon and Chevron surge as oil rises; gold keeps getting clobbered

Exxon and Chevron jumped again on Friday, the two largest positive contributors to the S&P 500 as of midday, even as the broader market remained mired in the red.

The two giant US energy companies are also on track to notch another in a series of new all-time highs as well Friday, and for obvious reasons.

Energy continues to be the bright spot for the S&P 500 since the start of the Iran war. (It is the only gainer of the 11 separate sectors that compose the blue-chip index, rising more than 7% in March.)

But energy’s gain has come with pain elsewhere. Since rising gas prices work mechanically as a tax on other forms of consumer spending, staples stocks have been hit hard, with the sector down more than 6% this month alone. Meanwhile, the inflationary pressure pushing the Fed away from further rate cuts continues to hit precious metals and miners. SPDR Gold Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust futures both fell further on Friday; they’re down roughly 10% and 15% for the week, respectively, and producers like Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan also continue to drop.

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Investors have been drawn to software stocks since the Iran war started — Figma has been an exception

Since the Iran war started, risky assets have been in the crosshairs. Stocks have sold off as oil prices spiked, the odds of rate cuts later this year have been slashed, and even the usual safe havens like gold and silver have been unreliable ports in the growing storm.

One port of refuge, however, has been in software stocks. As noted by my colleague Matt Phillips recently, a number of high-profile software names — the same ones that some pundits doomed to obsolescence because of AI just a few short weeks ago — have held up well. Design company Figma, however, has not been one of those names.

Figmas stock has dropped 19% since the close of trading on February 27, while the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF has gained 2%.

Though still notching very respectable top-line growth, with sales up 40% last year, Figma is far from the cash cow stage of its life — perhaps why its been hit harder than peers such as Adobe, Workday, or Salesforce. Indeed, on a GAAP basis, Wall Street still expects the company to lose $477 million this year, as heavy stock-based compensation weighs on its profitability.

Figmas pain was then compounded when Google announced a major update to Stitch on Wednesday — a product described as an AI-native software design canvas that allows anyone to create, iterate and collaborate on high-fidelity UI from natural language.

Debate is still raging on Reddit and other social media platforms as to whether Stitch, or other vibe-coding platforms and tools, will meaningfully eat into Figmas core business. One user said that it offers very little to experienced designers. It removes the tools Figma offers and delegates everything to AI. Figma at least has all the capabilities plus AI for people who want to use AI. Another — complaining about the newly prohibitive cost of credits in Figmas own AI-powered tool, Figma Make — was more bearish on Figmas usefulness, saying that the number of credits the designer would need to use would cost $16,000 under Figmas new pricing model.

For now, investors arent giving Figma the benefit of the doubt, with the stock down 12% in the last two days alone.

markets

Chip-smuggling charges against Super Micro cofounder boost rival server maker Dell

Dell is up in early Friday trading after rival Super Micro Computer plunged on news that one of its cofounders had been charged by US prosecutors with allegedly illegally smuggling AI chips to China.

Dell, Super Micro, and HP Enterprise are all what’s known as “system makers”: they sell ready-to-roll rack servers, storage systems, and the other hardware that’s needed to fill all those data centers that hyperscalers are so desperate to build.

Dell and Super Micro both sell systems built around Nvidia GPUs, so the US government’s allegations against key personnel tied to Super Micro could jeopardize the company’s access to Nvidia products and give Dell a leg up in that crucial AI-related server market.

Dell, Super Micro, and HP Enterprise are all what’s known as “system makers”: they sell ready-to-roll rack servers, storage systems, and the other hardware that’s needed to fill all those data centers that hyperscalers are so desperate to build.

Dell and Super Micro both sell systems built around Nvidia GPUs, so the US government’s allegations against key personnel tied to Super Micro could jeopardize the company’s access to Nvidia products and give Dell a leg up in that crucial AI-related server market.

markets

Planet Labs soars after earnings beat and positive analyst commentary

Planet Labs held on to huge post-earnings gains early Friday as analysts that cover the retail favorite issued largely upbeat reviews of its Q4 report released Thursday after the bell. Here’s some of their commentary on the satellite services company:

Wedbush (rating: “outperform, price target: $40): PL is seeing major tailwinds in the geopolitical space, continuing to drive mission-critical demand globally. Total RPO came in at ~ $852 million (up ~106% y/y) with backlog of ~$900+ million (up ~79% y/y) highlighted by 9- figure deal with the Swedish Armed Forces which was the third 9-figure Satellite Services contract over the past 12 months totaling $500+ million across Sweden, Japan, and Germany, with management noting on the call that both deal count and average size in the satellite services pipeline has grown appreciably.”

Citizens (rating: “market perform, price target: N/A): “In our view, Planets solid performance in the quarter and the significant revenue acceleration implied for FY27 reflect the companys success in shifting to a satellite services model and leaning (heavily) into the needs of Defense & Intelligence segment customers. We believe this is the correct area of focus (for management and investors) and view some of the flashier announcements around Project Suncatcher (space-based data centers), or more recently, AI enabling a renaissance within Planet’s Civil and Commercial businesses as somewhat of a distraction.”

Clear Street (rating: “buy, price target: $34): “While F2026 revenue grew 26%, non-defense verticals have lagged. Management signaled an inflection point, with use cases such as maritime awareness data poised towards gaining traction across finance, insurance, and supply chain, supported by a more tailored approach with LLM partnerships like Anthropic (private).”

There’s a reason the stock has built a strong retail following: it had already surged more than 500% over the past year, even before jumping another 20% after last night’s earnings.

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