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Robinhood bull removes “buy” rating, cuts estimates

Morgan Stanley’s analysts covering brokerages also cut their price target and pivoted to more defensive, bond-focused firms like MarketAxess, Cboe, and CME.

Matt Phillips

Analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their “overweight” rating (basically, a buy) on Robinhood to “equal weight” (or hold), and downgraded their earnings forecast and price target for the stock, citing risks “that retail investors begin to disengage (for which we saw signs in March) in a period of prolonged market volatility and sharp drawdowns in broad market indices.” They wrote:

“In the context of a highly volatile and less certain macro environment with risks/uncertainty surrounding government policy, economic growth, and inflation, we lower our retail trading forecasts at the retail brokers and market infrastructure firms… and shift our preferences towards stocks that are less levered to retail trading.”

Morgan Stanley cut its price target for the shares to $40 from $90 — which was the second highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg data — and cut its earnings per share estimate for 2025 by 29%.

Robinhood has been hit hard since the stock market topped out on February 19, falling 40% through yesterday’s close, though the shares are bouncing higher today.

For what it’s worth, the bank also cut its ratings on Nasdaq, Virtu Financial, and Tradeweb to “equal weight” from “overweight,” and upgraded its rating on bond- and hedging-focused financial companies like CME Group, Cboe, and Marketaxess, shares that have done relatively well during the recent market tumult.

(Sherwood Media is an editorially independent subsidiary of Robinhood Markets Inc. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation.)

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Record labels dip as Google adds AI music generation to its Gemini app

Google on Wednesday said it’s rolling out the ability for Gemini app users aged 18 and up to generate 30-second AI music tracks.

The tool is available globally, as Google launches beta access to its Lyria 3 generative-AI music model.

Addressing the potential for skirting the lines of copyright law (as seen in other recent DeepMind AI tools), Google said:

“If your prompt names a specific artist, Gemini will take this as broad creative inspiration and create a track that shares a similar style or mood. We also have filters in place to check outputs against existing content. We recognize that our approach might not be foolproof, so you can report content that may violate your rights or the rights of others.”

Shares of record labels including Universal Music Group and Warner Music dropped 2% on the news. Spotify briefly dipped before rebounding, and Sony shares also saw a slight decline.

Last month, Morgan Stanley published a survey that found up to 60% of Gen Z respondents listen to AI music, for an average of three hours per week. Earlier this year, Bandcamp banned all music wholly or substantially generated using AI.

Addressing the potential for skirting the lines of copyright law (as seen in other recent DeepMind AI tools), Google said:

“If your prompt names a specific artist, Gemini will take this as broad creative inspiration and create a track that shares a similar style or mood. We also have filters in place to check outputs against existing content. We recognize that our approach might not be foolproof, so you can report content that may violate your rights or the rights of others.”

Shares of record labels including Universal Music Group and Warner Music dropped 2% on the news. Spotify briefly dipped before rebounding, and Sony shares also saw a slight decline.

Last month, Morgan Stanley published a survey that found up to 60% of Gen Z respondents listen to AI music, for an average of three hours per week. Earlier this year, Bandcamp banned all music wholly or substantially generated using AI.

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Figure Technology rises amid big appetite for its blockchain-native share offering

Figure Technology Solutions is rising in early trading after upsizing its secondary offering of “blockchain native” shares.

The offering is priced at $32, roughly a 13% discount to Tuesday’s closing price and below any closing price for Figure since the week of its IPO in September.

This is not a dilutive offering: selling shareholders are able to exit common stock at $32, and in exchange the buyers will receive “blockchain native” shares at a discount to the current share price, presumably to help more activity migrate to Figure’s Provenance Blockchain. Holders could then lend these securities for yield, borrow against them, or have the option of converting these blockchain-native shares into common stock.

This secondary offering was originally announced on February 13 along with the release of Figure’s preliminary Q4 results.

Berkshire

Berkshire Hathaway invests in The New York Times, cuts stakes in Amazon and Apple

The latest SEC filing shows the company’s first media buy since 2020.

markets

Riot Platforms rises on activist push to accelerate AI data center pivot

Shares of major crypto miner Riot Platforms jumped as much as 5.6% in premarket trading Wednesday after activist investor Starboard Value urged the company, in a letter seen by Bloomberg, to accelerate its shift from bitcoin mining toward AI-focused data center operations.

markets

Applied Digital, WeRide, and Recursion Pharmaceuticals dip as Nvidia exits positions

Three stocks took a dip in after-hours trading on Tuesday after Nvidia’s 13F filing showed the chip designer sold its stake over the final three months of 2025 in:

  • Applied Digital, a data center operator in which Nvidia was the seventh-largest holder as of the end of Q3.

    • That being said, Nvidia still has some quasi-direct Applied Digital exposure through its still substantial CoreWeave position. The neocloud acquired warrants in APLD last June.

  • WeRide, the Chinese self-driving firm.

  • Recursion Pharmaceuticals, which engages in AI-driven drug development.

Nvidia also sold its stake in Arm Holdings, but that was offset by some good news: part of Nvidia’s expanded pact with Meta will see Arm-based CPUs assume a more prominent role in data center environments, which may help boost its volumes and selling prices.

Nvidia added positions in Nokia, Intel, and Synopsys in Q4, all of which had been previously announced via press releases. Its CoreWeave and Nebius positions were unchanged relative to Q3.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.