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Palantir share price Stephen Miller trump administration
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Stephen Miller, top Trump aide, discloses Palantir stake

It’s yet another linkage between the stock — the best performer in the S&P 500 this year — and the administration.

Matt Phillips

Stephen Miller, the influential Trump adviser at the heart of the administration’s aggressive deportation effort, has family shareholdings in ICE contractor Palantir Technologies, according to new financial disclosures spotlighted by the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), a nonprofit focusing on corruption and ethics in the federal government.

The stake in the company — which the disclosure says is between $100,000 and $250,000 — was not previously reported, POGO says.

The stock is technically held in the account of one of Miller’s young children, though “that does not legally matter, according to the Office of Government Ethics, which says ‘an asset that is owned by a spouse or minor child is analyzed under 18 U.S.C. § 208 [the criminal conflict of interest law] as if the employee owns it,’” the nonprofit reported.

The Miller disclosure is another example of the myriad financial, professional, and personal linkages that Palantir has with the administration.

The company’s largest individual shareholder is venture capitalist, Republican megadonor, and right-wing ideologue Peter Thiel, whose stake in the company he cofounded is worth nearly $10 billion. Thiel has been a long-standing ally of Vice President JD Vance, who was Thiel’s employee at a venture capital fund. Thiel later helped back Vance’s own VC fund and spent $15 million to help Vance win a US Senate seat representing Ohio in 2022.

The POGO report highlights other connections between the administration and the company:

“While the federal government’s chief information officer and former Palantir employee Gregory Barbaccia and at least 10 other Trump White House staffers have owned stock in Palantir, according to disclosures analyzed by the Project On Government Oversight (POGO), Miller’s disclosure shows he has a larger stake in the company than the rest.

Barbaccia and nine of the others have owned between $1,001 and $15,000 of Palantir stock each, amounts low enough they cannot pose a criminal conflict of interest due to a legal exemption. The tenth, Kara Frederick, is a senior policy advisor to Miller who owns between $50,001 and $100,000 of Palantir stock.

For Don Fox, a former acting head and former general counsel of the Office of Government Ethics, the nature of Miller’s work and his investments in Palantir could pose a conflict of interest.

‘He could easily become involved in policy matters that have a direct and predictable impact on Palantir,’ Fox said.”

Palantir shares have soared this year. It’s currently on track to be the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 for the second year in a row, thanks to several favorable thematic tailwinds.

The company has exposure to the AI technology frenzy through its AIP software for corporate clients. It’s a defense tech stock with a lot of business in a destabilized Middle East, where spending on tech weaponry will undoubtably grow. And it’s seen by some as a drone stock — a hot spot for investors as a result of the centrality of drones in the Russia-Ukraine war — as a result of the software it sells for unmanned aircraft.

But arguably, more than anything else, it’s a Trump trade, one of a coterie of companies whose share prices exploded after the 2024 US presidential election.

In fact, it’s the best-performing Trump trade by far, as traders have wagered that some combination of either alignment with administration policy shifts or cozy connections with the administration would benefit the company.

Despite Palantir’s exposure to other hot parts of the software business, the US government remains its single largest customer. The New York Times recently reported on the growing scope of the company’s business with the US government, and we, likewise, noted the massive expansion of a contract with the Department of Defense. The nonprofit report published Tuesday also wrote that this month, ICE announced it planned to award Palantir a contract without going through a competitive bidding process.

“ICE has conducted extensive market research that suggests there are no vendors other than Palantir capable of performing the necessary work to meet ICE mission needs,” the agency said.

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CarMax rises after activist investor Starboard takes $350 million stake

Online car retailer CarMax is climbing in premarket trading on Wednesday following reports that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a $350 million stake in the company.

Starboard nominated two directors to CarMax’s board, including its own CEO, Jeff Smith, and Frontdoor CEO Bill Cobb.

According to a letter sent by Starboard to CarMax, the hedge fund thinks the company can improve performance by adopting more dynamic pricing, reconditioning vehicles more efficiently, and reducing admin and other costs by more than $300 million.

Per Starboard’s letter: “If the experience is superior, CarMax does not need to be the lowest-priced provider to win. We strongly encourage you to be hyper-focused on the digital end-to-end consumer experience. We believe there is an ample amount of low hanging fruit; so much fruit that it may even be touching the ground.”

CarMax is the largest US used car retailer, but rival Carvana has closed the retail sales gap between the two companies to about 6,000 vehicles as of the two most recent comparable quarters.

According to a letter sent by Starboard to CarMax, the hedge fund thinks the company can improve performance by adopting more dynamic pricing, reconditioning vehicles more efficiently, and reducing admin and other costs by more than $300 million.

Per Starboard’s letter: “If the experience is superior, CarMax does not need to be the lowest-priced provider to win. We strongly encourage you to be hyper-focused on the digital end-to-end consumer experience. We believe there is an ample amount of low hanging fruit; so much fruit that it may even be touching the ground.”

CarMax is the largest US used car retailer, but rival Carvana has closed the retail sales gap between the two companies to about 6,000 vehicles as of the two most recent comparable quarters.

markets

A “Pokémon” game similar to “Animal Crossing” is selling out at US retailers, boosting Nintendo shares

“Pokémon Pokopia,” a Switch 2 exclusive game in the vein of “Animal Crossing,” has become something of a sleeper mass hit for Nintendo, sending the gaming giant’s shares climbing. The stock closed up more than 8% in Japan on Wednesday. US ADRs are up 5% in premarket trading.

Physical editions of “Pokopia” are currently out of stock on Walmart’s website, and earlier this week Amazon temporarily hiked the price of the game to $80 as demand surged.

“Pokopia” falls into a category of cozy games that have become a major industry category. “Animal Crossing” is the second-most-popular title on the original Switch and has sold more than 49 million copies. The 10-year-old “Stardew Valley” has sold more than 50 million copies across consoles and PC.

The Switch 2 is seeing a momentum boost from the “Pokémon” exclusive, Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal wrote in a recent note. That’s helping to offset investor fears around the growing issue of memory prices.

markets

Nebius spikes after announcing $2 billion investment from Nvidia

Nebius is soaring in premarket trading after deepening its partnership with the world’s most valuable company.

Nvidia will invest $2 billion in the neocloud to help “develop and deploy the next generation of hyperscale cloud for the AI market, from AI natives to enterprises,” according to the press release. “To enable Nebius to deploy more than 5 gigawatts of capacity by end of 2030, NVIDIA will support Nebius’s early adoption of the latest generation of NVIDIA’s accelerated computing platform.”

The chip designer already held roughly $100 million in Nebius stock as of the end of 2025, per a filing.

Nvidia has actively sought out $2 billion equity stakes via partnerships with smaller publicly traded AI plays as of late. Earlier this month, Nvidia said it would take $2 billion positions in advanced optics firms Lumentum and Coherent. In late January, the chip designer announced an investment of the same amount in CoreWeave, the neocloud whose IPO it also anchored.

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Oracle jumps after Q3 results exceed expectations, boost to sales guidance

Oracle had gained nearly 12% in early trading on Wednesday after the company's quarterly results and outlook gave investors reason to cheer.

The hyperscaler reported:

  • Sales of $17.2 billion (estimate: $16.9 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $1.79 (estimate: $1.70).

  • RPO (remaining performance obligations, or backlog) of $553 billion (estimate: $537.8 billion).

Oracle’s closely watched capex for the quarter was $18.64 billion, above analyst estimates of $14 billion.

Management also raised its sales outlook for the next fiscal year to $90 billion; analysts had expected $86.7 billion.

One year ago, management suggested that its fiscal 2027 top-line growth rate would be around 20%. And last quarter, the company said that 2027 sales would be $4 billion higher than previously expected. Putting this all together, this means Oracle’s previous 2027 sales guidance was in the neighborhood of $84.4 billion ahead of this report.

Breaking down Oracle’s cloud business:

  • Cloud revenue was $8.9 billion, up 44% year on year.

  • Cloud infrastructure revenue was $4.9 billion, up 84% year on year.

  • Cloud application revenue was $4 billion, up 13% year on year.

All of those figures were marginally ahead of estimates.

The cloud company’s elevated indebtedness and expected cash burn compare unfavorably to other hyperscalers, which caused markets to treat its aggressive capex plans as more risky than those of its peers. That’s been exacerbated by OpenAI, itself a cash incinerator, being the source of much of Oracle’s pipeline of future business.

Oracle’s five-year credit default swap spreads widened significantly from mid-September through late January due to this counterparty and credit risk. The company’s perceived creditworthiness recovered after announcing plans to raise money through equity, not just debt, to find its expansion plans, before CDS spreads once again blew out to their widest level since 2009.

“Oracle has been stained by the negative sentiment around OpenAI and is generally viewed as a poster child for AI Capex excess / madness and so a super squeezy rally in the stock could tell us AI Capex fears have peaked for now,” Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, wrote ahead of this release.

Oracle shares took a beating recently, as a number of analysts have lowered their price targets for the stock, which is down about 56% from its 52-week high of $345.72.

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