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Stephen Miller, top Trump aide, discloses Palantir stake

It’s yet another linkage between the stock — the best performer in the S&P 500 this year — and the administration.

Matt Phillips

Stephen Miller, the influential Trump adviser at the heart of the administration’s aggressive deportation effort, has family shareholdings in ICE contractor Palantir Technologies, according to new financial disclosures spotlighted by the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), a nonprofit focusing on corruption and ethics in the federal government.

The stake in the company — which the disclosure says is between $100,000 and $250,000 — was not previously reported, POGO says.

The stock is technically held in the account of one of Miller’s young children, though “that does not legally matter, according to the Office of Government Ethics, which says ‘an asset that is owned by a spouse or minor child is analyzed under 18 U.S.C. § 208 [the criminal conflict of interest law] as if the employee owns it,’” the nonprofit reported.

The Miller disclosure is another example of the myriad financial, professional, and personal linkages that Palantir has with the administration.

The company’s largest individual shareholder is venture capitalist, Republican megadonor, and right-wing ideologue Peter Thiel, whose stake in the company he cofounded is worth nearly $10 billion. Thiel has been a long-standing ally of Vice President JD Vance, who was Thiel’s employee at a venture capital fund. Thiel later helped back Vance’s own VC fund and spent $15 million to help Vance win a US Senate seat representing Ohio in 2022.

The POGO report highlights other connections between the administration and the company:

“While the federal government’s chief information officer and former Palantir employee Gregory Barbaccia and at least 10 other Trump White House staffers have owned stock in Palantir, according to disclosures analyzed by the Project On Government Oversight (POGO), Miller’s disclosure shows he has a larger stake in the company than the rest.

Barbaccia and nine of the others have owned between $1,001 and $15,000 of Palantir stock each, amounts low enough they cannot pose a criminal conflict of interest due to a legal exemption. The tenth, Kara Frederick, is a senior policy advisor to Miller who owns between $50,001 and $100,000 of Palantir stock.

For Don Fox, a former acting head and former general counsel of the Office of Government Ethics, the nature of Miller’s work and his investments in Palantir could pose a conflict of interest.

‘He could easily become involved in policy matters that have a direct and predictable impact on Palantir,’ Fox said.”

Palantir shares have soared this year. It’s currently on track to be the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 for the second year in a row, thanks to several favorable thematic tailwinds.

The company has exposure to the AI technology frenzy through its AIP software for corporate clients. It’s a defense tech stock with a lot of business in a destabilized Middle East, where spending on tech weaponry will undoubtably grow. And it’s seen by some as a drone stock — a hot spot for investors as a result of the centrality of drones in the Russia-Ukraine war — as a result of the software it sells for unmanned aircraft.

But arguably, more than anything else, it’s a Trump trade, one of a coterie of companies whose share prices exploded after the 2024 US presidential election.

In fact, it’s the best-performing Trump trade by far, as traders have wagered that some combination of either alignment with administration policy shifts or cozy connections with the administration would benefit the company.

Despite Palantir’s exposure to other hot parts of the software business, the US government remains its single largest customer. The New York Times recently reported on the growing scope of the company’s business with the US government, and we, likewise, noted the massive expansion of a contract with the Department of Defense. The nonprofit report published Tuesday also wrote that this month, ICE announced it planned to award Palantir a contract without going through a competitive bidding process.

“ICE has conducted extensive market research that suggests there are no vendors other than Palantir capable of performing the necessary work to meet ICE mission needs,” the agency said.

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Margins, and selling the news: analysts look to explain Oracle’s tumble

The somewhat counterintuitive tumble in Oracle shares continued into afternoon trading Friday, despite Wall Street analysts’ more or less favorable reaction to Oracle’s investor day presentation Thursday, where executives said the company’s AI cloud business would eventually sport margins of between 30% and 40%, far better than the figures reported by The Information back on September 7.

And yet, the stock is on its way to its worst day in the last six months. What gives?

Gil Lauria, who covers Oracle for D.A. Davidson & Co. — who has it at “hold” with a $300 price target — has a theory, telling Sherwood News:

“Investors are disappointed that the entire growth acceleration in Oracle is from the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business, and that Oracle expects the rest of the business to grow low single digits.

The other disappointment came from Oracle acknowledging that the GPU rental business only had 30-40% gross margins, far lower than the 80% gross margins for the rest of the business.”

Other analysts we’ve chatted with on background say they’re not convinced the margin story is the source of today’s slump, suggesting the also plausible explanation that the drop might just be a sign traders bought the stock ahead of the presentation to analysts on Thursday anticipating positive announcements, and now they’re selling simply selling the news.

Gil Lauria, who covers Oracle for D.A. Davidson & Co. — who has it at “hold” with a $300 price target — has a theory, telling Sherwood News:

“Investors are disappointed that the entire growth acceleration in Oracle is from the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business, and that Oracle expects the rest of the business to grow low single digits.

The other disappointment came from Oracle acknowledging that the GPU rental business only had 30-40% gross margins, far lower than the 80% gross margins for the rest of the business.”

Other analysts we’ve chatted with on background say they’re not convinced the margin story is the source of today’s slump, suggesting the also plausible explanation that the drop might just be a sign traders bought the stock ahead of the presentation to analysts on Thursday anticipating positive announcements, and now they’re selling simply selling the news.

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Analysts generally like what they heard from Oracle, but shares are down

The big news out from the Oracle AI World conference was broadly positive: that margins on cloud infrastructure can be as high as 35%, and that the company predicts $166 billion in infrastructure revenue by 2030.

And in the wake of that news, today UBS raised its price target for Oracle shares to $380 from $360, saying they are undervalued.

But investors appear to have some concerns about Oracle’s huge capex plans, which are fueled by huge AI infrastructure deals with OpenAI and Meta, as shares dropped over 7% in Friday trading.

Analysts have pointed to Oracle’s high cash burn as it pursues its AI build-out and potential financing needs as flies in the ointment that could blunt the impact of the company’s strong longer-term growth forecasts.

On Friday, Jefferies analysts wrote:

“Questions remain about ORCL’s capex requirements to meet growing demand, as there was no forward-looking commentary on capex at the Analyst Day. Capex will need to ramp in line with [Oracle cloud infrastructure] revenue growth, raising concerns about ORCL’s financing options to support this expansion.”

However, if that’s the reason why the stock is getting hit today, it would mark a distinct change in how investors are evaluating the AI trade. Companies have tended to be increasingly rewarded for their aggressive capex commitments to enhance the boom, based on optimism that investments in this would-be revolutionary technology will bear fruit.

Friday’s dip comes on the back of a strong run leading up to the yesterday’s investor conference, fueled by a flurry of AI headlines. Oracle shares have gained over 18% in the past three months and more than 70% so far this year, well outpacing the Nasdaq’s approximately 7% and 16% rise over the same time periods.

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AST SpaceMobile drops after Barclays cuts rating to “underweight”

AST SpaceMobile, which provides cellular services from space, dove in early trading after Barclays analysts cut their rating on the shares to “underweight” (essentially a sell) from “overweight” (or a buy), citing “excessive” valuation on the still money-burning company. The fact that analysts went from “buy” to “sell” — with no momentary stop at a “hold” or “neutral” rating — makes it a fairly rare “double downgrade.”

They wrote:

“Valuation has run ahead of fundamentals... In our last update, we increased our price target from $38 to $60 as we took a more constructive view on pricing; we found it supportive that TMUS/Starlink launched a text only service for $10 per month and believe that AST products which will be richer (text, call, broadband) could see higher prices points. Since then the stock price has doubled from $48 to $95.7.”

With the shares up almost 120% over the last month through Thursday, and a price-to-forward-sales ratio of 140x — the Nasdaq Composite is around 5x — the stock might be due for a cooling-off period.

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