Markets
Yiwen Lu

Stocks gain ahead of Big Tech earnings; oil slumps

The S&P 500 climbed 0.3% on Monday. The Russell 2000, which tracks small caps, kicked off the week up 1.6%. The Nasdaq 100 finished the day flat.

Most major S&P 500 groups advanced, except for the technology and energy sectors. The energy sector ETF fell 0.6%. The likes of APA Corporation and Diamondback Energy lost more than 3%, as they joined the biggest daily drop of crude oil this year. Both the US and global crude benchmarks plunged more than 6% at settlement on Monday, after a widely anticipated Israeli strike on Iran did not hit major oil facilities. 

Conversely, financials and materials led major S&P 500 sectors.

Shares of mega caps were mixed today. Google, Meta, Amazon, and Apple — which all report earnings this week — gained on the day. Microsoft, which reports on Wednesday, slid 0.4%. Last quarter, big tech companies saw a significant rise in AI expenditures and expected to spend more, while investors questioned whether this spending generated actual returns. 

Longer-term Treasury yields rose, hitting their highest levels since early July on an intraday basis. The Japanese yen weakened against the dollar following this weekend’s election.

And, one week ahead of the US vote, Trump Media & Technology Group spiked more than 20% on Monday, recouping losses from the sell-off in August and September.

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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