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Former President Trump And VP Nominee Sen. JD Vance Hold Rally In St. Cloud, Minnesota
Vice President Vance and President Trump (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Stocks crater as the trade war investors doubted would ever happen is here now

Tariffs go from negotiating tactic to policy real quick.

A relentless breakdown in momentum stocks plus tariff threats that finally became real are a toxic combination for the US stock market.

The S&P 500 suffered its biggest loss of the year on Monday after President Donald Trump said 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, as well as a doubling of levies on Chinese imports to 20%, will go into effect tomorrow.

A basket of stocks highlighted by Goldman Sachs as particularly vulnerable to tariffs tumbled 3%, which eliminates all their gains since the US election. It’s the worst one-day loss for the group since the Federal Reserve warned in its December meeting about upside risks to inflation following Trump’s election victory.

General Motors, perhaps the company most impacted by these levies, fell nearly 3% intraday following the affirmation of these tariffs shortly before 3 p.m. ET, deepening its daily loss.

Among investors, there was little consensus as to whether or not these tariffs would be enacted, per this survey from 22V Research at the end of last week:

Tariff consensus
Source: 22V Research

By and large, markets had not been reacting too much to the chatter over trade barriers. Tariff-sensitive stocks had been (and still are!) handily outperforming shares of companies deemed insulated from levies since the November 5 election. As such, there’s plenty of scope for this theme to assert a larger role in driving price action going forward.

The assumptions investors had made as to why disruptive trade measures wouldn’t be high on the list of policy priorities for Trump 2.0 are quickly being revisited.

Trump 1.0 was carrots first, sticks second. Trump 2.0, however...

“The sequencing is a challenge as the administration is beginning with the hits to growth and confidence, rather than cementing a higher floor first, the opposite of the approach in the first Trump administration which began with tax cuts and deregulation,” wrote Peter Williams, strategist at 22V Research.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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Jake Lahut

Comcast shares rise on news of NBCUniversal spinoff deal

Comcast rose on the news that the telecom behemoth is spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky from its cable portfolio. 

Comcast initially jumped up to 17% in early trading, with the deal leaving management to focus on its core verticals of cable, wireless, and business services. 

NBCUniversal and Sky will form a new publicly traded company, similar to Versant Media, the holding company of CNBC and MS NOW that Comcast officially spun off in January. Bravo, one of the most lucrative properties that remained at Comcast, will remain part of NBCUniversal in the deal. The Universal theme parks and studios will also come with the new spinoff entity, along with Telemundo and Peacock.

Mike Cavanagh, the co-CEO of Comcast, will become the CEO for NBCUniversal, according to CNBC. 

The spinoff will be completed in about a year, according to a Comcast company statement. Its shareholders will also own shares in NBCUniversal, according to the same statement.

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