A Sunrun worker carries a solar panel for installation on a roof (David Becker)

Sunnova warns it may not survive as solar industry flails

Sunnova missed earnings and gave a “going concern” warning. Its peers haven’t done much better.

3/3/25 10:03AM

Residential solar company Sunnova’s stock price plummeted 64% Monday after the company warned investors that it’s unsure whether it will be able to stay in business.

Sunnova Energy also posted quarterly results that missed Wall Street estimates, racking up a loss per share of $1.14, which is an improvement from the same period last year but steeper than the $0.66 analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. It also reported $224 million in sales, $10 million under what the Street was expecting.

But perhaps most worrying to investors, Sunnova said it doesn’t have enough cash coming in to meet its obligations and is suspending guidance. “Substantial doubt exists regarding our ability to continue as a going concern for a period of at least one year from the date we issue our consolidated financial statements,” the company said in its quarterly filing.

“Going concern” is an accounting term that signals the company has reason to believe it may not be able to cover its costs within the next year.

Sunnova has been squeezed by high interest rates and lower state incentives for residential solar, which has weakened demand. President Trump also poses a headwind for the industry: he is hostile to the federal tax credits for renewable energy and has imposed tariffs on China, a major solar panel producer.

Sunnova recently announced that it would lay off 15% of its staff, which it said would save it $70 million in 2025. It also said on Monday that it took out a $185 million loan at 15% interest.

Sunnova competitor Sunrun also missed Wall Street estimates when it reported results last week. First Solar, which sells utility-scale solar, also posted mixed earnings and is down more than 12% in the past week.

Sunrun reported a net loss of $2.8 billion, largely because of a hefty $3.1 billion goodwill impairment charge it took during the quarter. Its adjusted earnings per share were $1.41, compared to analysts’ expectations of a loss of $0.29.

Sunrun said it expects installations to stay flat this year. The company could still grow its revenue as it focuses on selling systems that have battery storage (often a Tesla powerwall), which have a higher profit margin for them.

Sunrun has shifted away from selling solar energy systems and solar panels and more toward customer agreements like leases and power purchase agreements. Sunnova has similarly prioritized customer agreements over selling panels themselves.

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Nate Becker & Matt Phillips4h

Oil drops, yields fall, and stocks rise on reports the US has sent Iran a plan to end war

Oil, stock, and bond markets flipped as investors continued to digest the latest reports on a potential wind-down of the war in Iran, with The New York Times reporting that the US has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the conflict.

Crude oil futures dropped sharply, from around $92 a barrel to about $88.50. Yields on two-year and 10-year Treasurys dropped, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF shot up after-hours.

From the Times:

“The United States has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East, according to two officials briefed on the diplomacy, reflecting the Trump administration’s eagerness to find an offramp from the conflict as it grapples with its economic fallout.

It was unclear how widely the plan, delivered by way of Pakistan, had been shared among Iranian officials and whether Iran was likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations. Nor was it clear whether Israel, which has been bombing Iran together with the United States, was on board with the proposal.

But the delivery of the plan showed that the administration was ramping up efforts to conclude a war, now in its fourth week, that has drawn in several other countries.”

Some individual shares had outsized reactions to the news in the postmarket session. Gold miners Freeport-McMoRan and Newmont, which have been battered since the war started, rose. Ammonia maker CF Industries — which had risen on expectations of rising prices for fertilizer products linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — fell.

US natural gas producers such as APA Corporation, EOG Resources, Devon Energy, and Diamondback Energy also declined after-hours.

The Times report also said that “for now, there is no indication that the war will let up imminently.”

United States Said to Have Sent Iran a Plan to End the Middle East War

Crude oil futures dropped sharply, from around $92 a barrel to about $88.50. Yields on two-year and 10-year Treasurys dropped, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF shot up after-hours.

From the Times:

“The United States has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East, according to two officials briefed on the diplomacy, reflecting the Trump administration’s eagerness to find an offramp from the conflict as it grapples with its economic fallout.

It was unclear how widely the plan, delivered by way of Pakistan, had been shared among Iranian officials and whether Iran was likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations. Nor was it clear whether Israel, which has been bombing Iran together with the United States, was on board with the proposal.

But the delivery of the plan showed that the administration was ramping up efforts to conclude a war, now in its fourth week, that has drawn in several other countries.”

US natural gas producers such as APA Corporation, EOG Resources, Devon Energy, and Diamondback Energy also declined after-hours.

The Times report also said that “for now, there is no indication that the war will let up imminently.”

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Luke Kawa, Max Knoblauch5h

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Stocks close lower after fluctuating as traders digest war updates

Stocks pared steeper losses on hopes of US-Iran talks, but were unable to maintain gains on reports that the US is deploying 3,000 troops to the Middle East.

Matt Phillips6h

Amid Mideast conflict, investors cling to faith in the AI build-out

Data center build-out stocks showed impressive resilience to the slump that hit big indexes Tuesday.

In fact, construction companies, server system makers, fiber-optic technology stocks, and memory makers — all cornerstones of the AI trade — were having a pretty good day, suggesting the market sees the wave of AI construction continuing, war or no war.

Optical stocks seen as crucial to efficiently transmitting the flood of information AI data centers both produce and depend on were surging. Corning, Lumentum, Coherent, and Ciena Corp. ramped.

Server rack makers HP Enterprise and Dell jumped. Construction and engineering companies like Sterling Infrastructure, MasTec, and Comfort Systems USA, which have benefited from the growth in building data centers, posted solid gains.

Hard disk drive makers Seagate Technology Holdings and Western Digital were also positive, though other memory plays such as Sandisk and Micron were in the red.

It was an impressive display of positivity on a day when the S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and the Nasdaq 100 (Invesco QQQ Trust) were both fluttering between positive and negative territory for completely understandable reasons.

After all, the 82nd Airborne is heading to the Middle East, suggesting the US is considering sending troops into Iran. US crude oil is back above $90 a barrel and climbing, as the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially shut.

Additionally, the problems in the private credit market continue, with major fund managers preventing investors from withdrawing all the money they would like to. We even had a weak auction for US two-year Treasury notes — investors seemed to think the offered yield might not be sufficient to offset inflation risks stirred up by the war — that sent short-term interest rates up sharply.

But apparently it will take more than all that for investors to worry that the AI build-out may be halted, delayed, or even just trimmed back.

Nate Becker9h

Stocks get a bump on CNN report that Iran is willing to listen to proposals to end war

Stocks got a small bump midday Tuesday as CNN reported on what appeared to be a softening in Iran’s position toward ending the war in the Middle East.

The S&P 500 briefly turned green following the report, before paring some of those gains in the afternoon.

From the CNN report:

“An Iranian source told CNN on Tuesday that there had been ‘outreach’ between the United States and Tehran and that Iran is willing to listen to ‘sustainable’ proposals to end the war.

‘There has been outreach between the United States and Iran, initiated by Washington, in recent days, but nothing that has reached the level of full-on negotiations,’ the source said. ‘Messages have been received through various intermediaries to scope out whether an agreement to end the war can be reached.’”

Markets had zoomed Monday as President Trump said there had been discussions between the two nations, but they gave back some of their gains after Iran starkly denied the claim. Markets seemed to read this new reporting as a softening of Iran’s position.

Iranian source says there has been US "outreach" and Tehran "willing to listen"

“An Iranian source told CNN on Tuesday that there had been ‘outreach’ between the United States and Tehran and that Iran is willing to listen to ‘sustainable’ proposals to end the war.

‘There has been outreach between the United States and Iran, initiated by Washington, in recent days, but nothing that has reached the level of full-on negotiations,’ the source said. ‘Messages have been received through various intermediaries to scope out whether an agreement to end the war can be reached.’”

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