A Sunrun worker carries a solar panel for installation on a roof (David Becker)

Sunnova warns it may not survive as solar industry flails

Sunnova missed earnings and gave a “going concern” warning. Its peers haven’t done much better.

3/3/25 10:03AM

Residential solar company Sunnova’s stock price plummeted 64% Monday after the company warned investors that it’s unsure whether it will be able to stay in business.

Sunnova Energy also posted quarterly results that missed Wall Street estimates, racking up a loss per share of $1.14, which is an improvement from the same period last year but steeper than the $0.66 analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. It also reported $224 million in sales, $10 million under what the Street was expecting.

But perhaps most worrying to investors, Sunnova said it doesn’t have enough cash coming in to meet its obligations and is suspending guidance. “Substantial doubt exists regarding our ability to continue as a going concern for a period of at least one year from the date we issue our consolidated financial statements,” the company said in its quarterly filing.

“Going concern” is an accounting term that signals the company has reason to believe it may not be able to cover its costs within the next year.

Sunnova has been squeezed by high interest rates and lower state incentives for residential solar, which has weakened demand. President Trump also poses a headwind for the industry: he is hostile to the federal tax credits for renewable energy and has imposed tariffs on China, a major solar panel producer.

Sunnova recently announced that it would lay off 15% of its staff, which it said would save it $70 million in 2025. It also said on Monday that it took out a $185 million loan at 15% interest.

Sunnova competitor Sunrun also missed Wall Street estimates when it reported results last week. First Solar, which sells utility-scale solar, also posted mixed earnings and is down more than 12% in the past week.

Sunrun reported a net loss of $2.8 billion, largely because of a hefty $3.1 billion goodwill impairment charge it took during the quarter. Its adjusted earnings per share were $1.41, compared to analysts’ expectations of a loss of $0.29.

Sunrun said it expects installations to stay flat this year. The company could still grow its revenue as it focuses on selling systems that have battery storage (often a Tesla powerwall), which have a higher profit margin for them.

Sunrun has shifted away from selling solar energy systems and solar panels and more toward customer agreements like leases and power purchase agreements. Sunnova has similarly prioritized customer agreements over selling panels themselves.

Toby Bochan

Market Wrap

Markets cheer surprise gift of cooler CPI amid renewed AI optimism to finish higher

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 surged on Thursday — perhaps we’ll have a Santa rally after all!

CAMARILLO, CA FEBRUARY 09: A cannabis farm worker de-leafs cann

Trump signs executive order expediting reclassification of marijuana as a less dangerous drug

Rescheduling would lift regulatory pressures that have been weighing on US cannabis operators’ margins. Shares of weed companies, many of which don’t sell cannabis in the US, tumbled an hour before the executive order was signed.

J. Edward Moreno4h

Max Knoblauch5h

Rivian climbs as it rolls out a “universal hands-free” update and scores an upgrade from Baird

Shares of EV maker Rivian are on pace for their 10th best day of 2025 on Thursday, following an upgrade from Baird to “buy” from “hold” and the rollout of its new hands-free driving update.

Baird raised its price target on Rivian nearly 79% to $25, writing that “2026 is the year of R2.”

Meanwhile, Rivian says its new hands-free feature will allow drivers to take their hands off the wheel across 3.5 million miles of US and Canadian roads.

Despite referring to it as “universal hands-free” driving, the EV maker says the feature will not stop or slow for traffic lights or stop signs, follow navigation systems, or make turns, and will function only on roads with visible lane lines.

Rivian revealed the update at its AI Day last week, when it also hinted at a robotaxi plan.

Rivian rolls out new 'Universal Hands-Free' driving feature | TechCrunch

Meanwhile, Rivian says its new hands-free feature will allow drivers to take their hands off the wheel across 3.5 million miles of US and Canadian roads.

Rivian revealed the update at its AI Day last week, when it also hinted at a robotaxi plan.

Matt Phillips6h

The stock market loves your rising electricity bill

Utilities with a footprint in the massive PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest power grid, were up Thursday after prices set in a key auction hit a record high of $333.44 per megawatt-day.

Such power providers, including Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and Vistra, saw tidy gains shortly before midday.

“This auction leaves no doubt that data centers’ demand for electricity continues to far outstrip new supply, and the solution will require concerted action involving PJM, its stakeholders, state and federal partners, and the data center industry itself,” Stu Bresler, set to become PJM’s chief operating officer next month, told Reuters.

As I’ve previously mused, political pushback from high power prices, partially created by the AI boom, could become a constraint on development of such sites. Democrats in the US Senate are now calling for hearings on the issue.

It’s fertile political soil. This morning’s US CPI report for November showed electricity prices up nearly 7% year over year, the highest since the tail end of the postpandemic inflation in April 2023.

Costs on Key US Grid Hit New Record, Testing Affordability

Luke Kawa7h

Micron’s earnings, soft inflation, and OpenAI valuation chatter revive speculative AI trade

The three biggest news events since markets closed yesterday are all helping spur a big bounce-back for the more speculative companies tied to AI:

Micron’s eye-popping Q2 guidance reaffirmed beyond a shadow of a doubt how hot AI demand continues to run in the near term.
While the data is undoubtedly messy, core CPI inflation decelerated by much more than anticipated in November. Lower rates are a clear positive for more marginal companies levered to the AI theme, whose stocks trade with a higher embedded risk of default and whose bonds have also been suggesting more credit risk as of late.
OpenAI reportedly getting its hands on more money (and commanding a higher valuation in the process) provides some semblance of valuation support for these firms and also a better fundamental foundation as well: more cash in CEO Sam Altman’s pockets means more cash he has to make good on commitments to OpenAI’s many suppliers.

Put together, the key news items since Wednesday’s close are producing massive gains for the likes of Bloom Energy, Cipher Mining, POET Technologies, CoreWeave, IREN, and Nebius.