markets

J. Edward Moreno

3/4/25

Taco Bell arises as the day’s tariff hedge

Mexican food that no one in their right mind thinks comes from Mexico is one of the most tariff-immune investments of the day.

Yum! Brands, the owner of Taco Bell, reached a record high on Tuesday amid a widespread market meltdown over 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada. It’s almost as if Taco Bell, the maker of the Crunchwrap and Doritos Locos Tacos, has almost no economic ties to the country that inspires its eccentric cuisine.

The move came after the company reported that it expects same-store sales for Taco Bell — which has recently outperformed its fast-food peers — to increase by 8% in 2025. The stock went up by more than 2%, reaching a record high of about $161. (The word “tariff” has not come up in Yum! Brands’ earnings calls since December 2010, according to FactSet.)

Other inauthentic Mexican food chains were not so lucky. Chipotle, which uses more avocados than Taco Bell does, fell by more than 2%. Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said on Sunday that the burrito chain would eat the increased costs of tariffs rather than pass it to consumers.

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Oracle’s RPO Remaining Performance Obligations

What is an RPO, the number that drove Oracle’s giant share move?

Matt Phillips, Max Knoblauch1h

markets

2h

Pokémon trading cards skyrocketing in value and GameStop’s collectibles business taking off are two sides of the same coin

The Wall Street Journal’s fantastic piece “The Hot Investment With a 3,000% Return? Pokémon Cards” includes this vignette:

...the cards caught fire among amateur investors during the pandemic. As some investors banded together to spark the GameStop meme stock mania, a more fringe group of traders, also stuck at home and armed with cash from government stimulus, began scooping up Pokémon cards.

And the connection between Pokémon cards and the video game retailer is in fact even closer than that:

GameStop’s collectibles business played a big role in why it smashed Q2 revenue expectations! Sales in this segment exceeded $227 million, while the two analysts that provided forecasts had an average estimate of $170.4 million. Fiscal year-to-date, sales of collectibles make up 25.8% of its revenues, up from 16.4% at this time last year.

The company significantly expanded its footprint in the Pokémon trading card world in 2024 by launching in-store buying and selling of individual cards, and introduced “Power Packs,” which include one card graded at 8 or above by the Professional Sports Authenticator, in its most recent quarter.

As a 35-year-old man who still plays Pokémon (Nuzlockes are peak math + strategy entertainment!), thinks the release of Pokémon Go marked the peak for Western Civilization, and considers Christmas 1998 to be the second-best day of his life because it’s when he got Pokémon Red, I personally view the outperformance of Pokémon cards as being indicative of the power of nostalgia coupled with a drop-off in child-rearing by millennials that leaves more room for discretionary purchases/investments.

And the nostalgia business seems like a great place to be.

The Hot Investment With a 3,000% Return? Pokémon Cards

The Hot Investment With a 3,000% Return? Pokémon Cards

...the cards caught fire among amateur investors during the pandemic. As some investors banded together to spark the GameStop meme stock mania, a more fringe group of traders, also stuck at home and armed with cash from government stimulus, began scooping up Pokémon cards.

And the connection between Pokémon cards and the video game retailer is in fact even closer than that:

GameStop’s collectibles business played a big role in why it smashed Q2 revenue expectations! Sales in this segment exceeded $227 million, while the two analysts that provided forecasts had an average estimate of $170.4 million. Fiscal year-to-date, sales of collectibles make up 25.8% of its revenues, up from 16.4% at this time last year.

The company significantly expanded its footprint in the Pokémon trading card world in 2024 by launching in-store buying and selling of individual cards, and introduced “Power Packs,” which include one card graded at 8 or above by the Professional Sports Authenticator, in its most recent quarter.

As a 35-year-old man who still plays Pokémon (Nuzlockes are peak math + strategy entertainment!), thinks the release of Pokémon Go marked the peak for Western Civilization, and considers Christmas 1998 to be the second-best day of his life because it’s when he got Pokémon Red, I personally view the outperformance of Pokémon cards as being indicative of the power of nostalgia coupled with a drop-off in child-rearing by millennials that leaves more room for discretionary purchases/investments.

And the nostalgia business seems like a great place to be.

markets

3h

Oracle’s hyperscaler competitors lag after the cloud computing giant’s blowout revenue forecast

Oracle’s forecast for mind-blowing revenue growth through its fiscal 2030 is lifting most AI-adjacent stocks today.

However, the ones being left behind in this rising tide, falling or lagging well behind Morgan Stanley’s basket of AI tech beneficiaries (up 5.8% as of 12:22 p.m. ET), are its fellow hyperscalers.

Microsoft and Alphabet, which also have massive cloud divisions, are positive — but only just. Amazon, whose cloud revenue growth was deemed a disappointment relative to peers this quarter, is down 2.8%. Meta is down 1.2%.

This suggests, at the very least, that traders aren’t mapping Oracle’s outlook for Nvidia-like revenue growth onto the other major cloud players or one of their biggest customers.

markets

5h

Chewy sinks despite topping Q2 estimates, erasing much of its recent rally

Chewy dropped nearly 16% Wednesday, despite the online pet retailer fetching stronger-than-expected Q2 results and hiking its sales guidance for the year.

The move erased much of a recent blistering run-up for the stock, which had gained 23% off its recent August 5 low through Tuesday.

The company delivered adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 for the quarter, in line with analysts’ consensus forecast of $0.33. Sales jumped nearly 8.6% to $3.1 billion, also above forecasts, with sales to the company’s Autoship customers making up 83% of the total.

Looking ahead: Chewy boosted its full-year sales estimates to $12.5 billion to $12.6 billion, up from $12.3 billion to $12.45 billion. Wall Street was expecting sales of $12.49 billion for the year.

For the current quarter, Chewy guided adjusted EPS to $0.28 to $0.33, compared with the Street’s $0.30 estimate.

Chewy ended the quarter with nearly 21 million active customers, up 4.5% from last year. CEO Sumit Singh said the quarter showed “Chewy’s differentiated value proposition,” citing both customer growth and wallet share gains.

Still, headline net income fell to $62 million, with net margins slipping under cost pressures tied to share-based compensation.

Chewy shares were up 24% year to date going into the print.

Whitney Houston

Oracle is on pace for its best day in the stock market since 1992

Oracle shareholders are singing “I Will Always Love You” to the stock.

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