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Luke Kawa

Tariffs, data, earnings are a trifecta of troubles sending the S&P 500 sharply lower

Let’s run through everything ailing the US stock market on Thursday, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF poised for its first 1% loss since mid-June:

  • Tariffs: President Donald Trump is planning to follow through with additional tariff hikes for countries that didn’t reach deals with the US. A UBS basket of “Trump tariff losers” is down 2.4% as of 10:15 a.m. ET.

  • Data: Nonfarm payroll growth in the US disappointed, coming in at 73,000 in July versus an expected 104,000. To make matters worse, there were also massive negative revisions to the prior two months. The July ISM Manufacturing report also posted a big miss, coming in at 48 while economists had anticipated 49.5. Readings below 50 imply a contraction in the sector. These two reports had led to mounting worries about the potential for everything else in the economy to roll over, outweighing the ongoing AI boom — especially when the aforementioned tariff shock threatens to heap additional pressure on economic activity.

  • Earnings: There are some good and bad ones out there, but the bad ones really sting. Amazon is single-handedly driving nearly 20% of the SPY’s decline as of 10:30 a.m. ET, as even the overwhelming AI demand it’s seeing isn’t strong compared to its rivals.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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