The Hail Mary options bets on another GameStop mania are getting crushed
The lottery-ticket bets looking for another round of intense speculative fervor in GameStop by midway through this month have turned to ashes.
For the January 17 expiry, which is just 14 days away, the most popular option by far are calls with a strike price of $125 — that is, nearly 300% above its current price.
A series of large wagers on another frenzy were made via these call options on December 16, with lopsided options activity that was eerily similar to what preceded the embattled video game and collectibles retailer’s parabolic move higher in the second quarter of 2024. Since that session, even as GameStop shares have rallied about 8% (while the S&P 500 has given back more than 2%), the price of those options contracts has cratered.
On December 16, those options ended the day at $1 with a volume-weighted average price of a little more than $0.75. They’re now trading at $0.15 — 80% below that volume-weighted average price. The nice bump in the stock has been nowhere near robust enough to lift the options as their time value decays.
The open interest has edged higher over this period alongside elevated trading activity in the contract. Volumes were particularly elevated at year-end, with most transactions taking place on the bid side, indicating a motivated seller. So, while the original buyer may have exited the position, there’s still a lot of seemingly extremely low-probability lottery tickets floating around out there.
To quote a track from Light Sweet Crude, “No matter how low you get, you can always go down another 100%.”