Markets
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Luke Kawa

‘The most volatile earnings season since the financial crisis’

A wild fact from Goldman Sachs managing director Brian Garrett about the significant swings in individual stocks as quarterly results roll in:

“If it’s felt like a volatile earnings season, that's because it is,” he writes in a note to clients. “In fact, this has been the most volatile earnings season since the financial crisis.”

So far, the average S&P 500 stock has gone up or down about 5% on the heels of releasing quarterly results.

Goldman Sachs earnings season volatility
Stock absolute move on earnings (Goldman Sachs)

And yes, it certainly has felt like a volatile earnings season. Match Group, Stanley Black & Decker, 3M, Mohawk Industries, Charter Communications, and Bristol Myers all had double-digit gains on strong results recently, for instance. And on the day the S&P 500 broke its streak of consecutive sessions without a 2% decline, poor financial performance from the likes of Tesla and Lamb Weston certainly played a part.

Goldman’s data are as of the end of July, so we’re not even capturing things like Meta’s spike on earnings or Qualcomm’s slide to kick off this month.

“By the end of this week we will largely be through eps and onto a hopefully quiet August,” writes Garrett.

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Luke Kawa

Klarna sinks after Q1 guidance for revenue and gross merchandise value comes in short of estimates

Buy now, pay later, issue guidance that Wall Street likes even later.

Shares of Klarna are tumbling in early trading after the fintech payments company’s Q1 outlook came in below analysts’ projections.

Management sees Q1 revenues between $900 million and $980 million, the midpoint of which is below Wall Street’s call for $965.1 million. The company’s range for gross merchandise value in the current quarter of $32 billion to $33 billion is fully below the consensus estimate for $33.37 billion.

(Gross merchandise value is the dollar figure associated with all purchases made via Klarna’s different modes of payment.)

This disappointing outlook outweighed a solid set of Q4 top-line results. Revenues of $1.08 billion came in $10 million above expectations, gross merchandise volume beat estimates at $38.7 billion (consensus: $38.06 billion), and active consumers of 118 million were nearly a full million above what Wall Street had penciled in.

The stock is poised to open at an all-time low.

markets
Luke Kawa

Palantir dips as stock removed from Bank of America’s list of best US investment ideas

Palantir is lower in premarket trading amid news that the stock has been removed from Bank of America’s US 1 List.

That list is the best of the best: the subset of “buy”-rated stocks that BofA selects as its top US-listed investment ideas.

Between this news, Michael Burry, and, well, just the share price, it certainly seems like investor sentiment has decisively shifted on the once high-flying AI retail darling.

Palantir recently traded at its biggest discount to Wall Street’s average price target since late 2022.

markets
Luke Kawa

Herbalife rallies after Cristiano Ronaldo invests $7.5 million in its personal health and wellness software subsidiary

SIUUUUUU!

Herbalife is soaring in premarket trading after announcing that longtime partner Cristiano Ronaldo has invested $7.5 million into one of its subsidiaries.

The football/soccer legend acquired a 10% equity interest in Herbalife’s HBL Pro2col in a deal that also sees him commit to providing services and sponsorship rights to this entity.

Pro2col offers individualized health and wellness tips based on user-input information, data from wearable tech, DNA analysis, and more.

Herbalife reached a deal to acquire these assets in March 2025. At that time, Ronaldo was tapped as an adviser who would be supporting the development and deployment of this technology. He’s endorsed Herbalife products since 2013.

The company made this announcement along with the release of Q4 earnings, which were mixed to roughly in line with estimates.

Walmart Retail Location. Walmart introduced its Veterans Welcome Home Commitment and plans on hiring 265,000 veterans.

Walmart slumps after full-year guidance underwhelms

The company reported Q4 earnings results and issued its full-year outlook on Thursday.

J. Edward Moreno3h
markets
Max Knoblauch

Carvana craters after Q4 earnings miss estimates

Used car retailer Carvana plummeted after fourth-quarter profits came in shy of estimates.

Adjusted EBITDA of $511 million came in below the consensus call for $535.7 million, more than offsetting better-than-expected sales of $5.6 billion (estimate: $5.27 billion).

Carvana sold 163,522 used vehicles to retail customers in the quarter, up 43% from last year and ahead of expectations. With that result, Carvana further closes its retail sales gap with rival CarMax, which sold 169,557 vehicles in its most recent quarter.

Carvana posted a retail gross profit per vehicle of $3,076, down 7.7% from the same period last year. In a letter to shareholders, Carvana said its reconditioning costs came in higher than expected in Q4, which led to an additional impact on retail gross profit per unit. Lower shipping fee revenue, higher non-vehicle costs, and higher industrywide retail depreciation rates also drove the decline, the company said.

Carvana said it expects to see elevated reconditioning costs again in the first quarter, but expects a sequential increase in retail GPU. Carvana said it expects “significant growth in both retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA” in the first quarter and full year ahead.

As of Wednesday’s close, Carvana shares were down about 24% since an all-time closing high in January, after a report from short seller Gotham City questioning its accounting practices sent the stock reeling. A Carvana spokesperson told Sherwood News that the report was “inaccurate and intentionally misleading.”

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