There are two ways in which tariffs are pushing down inflation. They’re both bad news.
Hotel prices in the Northeast are slumping, while West Texas Intermediate crude prices are at $60 per barrel.
There are a couple ways all the tariff talk and follow-through — which is poised to give prices an uncomfortable jolt higher — are having the opposite effect in some parts of the economy.
Here’s Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights, with a crisp observation on a major surprise from this morning’s March consumer price inflation report: a relatively small rise in hotel prices.
“The 1.0% non-seasonally adjusted rise was the weakest since March 2020, and excluding that, it was the weakest in any March since 1992,” he wrote. “However, this does not look to be broad-based cyclical weakness and instead looks to have been centered in the Northeast, perhaps reflecting wariness about US travel among Canadians and other international visitors.”
Sherwood News’ Max Knoblauch has reported that, as of late March, airline bookings from April through September for cross-border travel between Canada and the United States have plummeted by more than 70%. That’s a precipitous decline from the country that’s the top source of international visitors.
Canadians have been (understandably) ticked off not only by tariffs, but also President Trump’s threats against the nation’s sovereignty. It goes without saying that a decline in tourism would be a clear negative for economic activity.
“It is possible, although far from certain given the typical volatility in this index, that lower demand from foreign travelers, including Canadians, could be hitting the Northeast region a bit harder than other areas,” Sharif added.
Of course, the much larger way that tariffs will bring some disinflation to offset some of the looming upward pressure on prices comes from oil, which has cratered amid demand fears and OPEC+’s plan to return barrels to market. The declines have been so severe that some analysts are warning that US oil producers might start cutting production.
