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Luke Kawa10/28/24

Trump’s Truth Social might be worth more than Elon Musk’s X now

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, has been at a number of Trump rallies recently to promote the former president ahead of next Tuesday’s election. Perhaps while the two are rubbing shoulders, he might get some tips from the Republican nominee on how to grow a social-media company.

A September 28 filing from Fidelity’s Blue Chip Fund, which owns a stake in the private company, suggests the firm thinks X is worth $9.4 billion. After Monday’s eye-popping 22% gain on record volumes, Trump Media & Technology Group (parent company of Truth Social) has a market capitalization of $9.48 billion.

We don’t want to take this judgement as gospel for myriad reasons. The numbers are close, the dates aren’t perfectly apples-to-apples, and there are different ways to assess how much companies are worth (market cap versus enterprise value, etc.). Also, this is just one institution’s view.

We doubt that Musk is sweating any of this too much, seeing as X’s operational performance is not his top priority in running the social-media platform, and also because of the bit about him still being the world’s richest man who saw that net worth swell by billions last week thanks to Tesla’s strong earnings report and guidance.

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AMD posts top and bottom line beat in Q3 with Q4 sales guidance ahead of estimates

Advanced Micro Devices reported third-quarter results that exceeded analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines, with guidance to match.

Adjusted diluted earnings per share: $1.20 (estimate: $1.17)
Revenue: $9.25 billion (estimate: $8.74 billion, guidance for $8.4 billion to $9 billion)
Data center revenue: $4.34 billion (estimate: $4.14 billion)
Adjusted gross margin: 54% (estimate: 54%, guidance for 54%)

Its Q4 guidance for sales of $9.3 to $9.9 billion was strong relative to the anticipated $9.2 billion, while its adjusted gross margin outlook of 54.5% is bang in line with estimates.

Even so, shares are off about 2% in after-hours trading as of 4:24 p.m. ET.

AMD has had a high-profile Q4 so far, striking a megadeal with OpenAI that its CFO said “is expected to deliver tens of billions of dollars in revenue.” That announcement prompted more than 20 price target hikes from Wall Street analysts in a 24-hour span.

The company followed that up with a pact with Oracle, which said it would deploy 50,000 of AMD’s new flagship chips in data centers starting in the second half of next year. On the upcoming conference call, the Street will be looking for as much color as possible on the sales outlook for those MI450 chips.

Ahead of this release, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore wrote:

The focus should remain on MI450. AMD's rack scale solution shipping next year is the key, and we are excited to see what the company can do. It's still early to make market share assessments, and while the Open AI agreement is clearly an accelerant, the reliance on cloud providers to ramp those 6 gigawatts still creates some uncertainty. Ultimately, to drive share gains, the company will need to provide better ROI than NVIDIA can offer, and customers still raise questions about that given lower rack density and the need to resolve ecosystem issues.

The chip designer was the third-best performing member of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF in 2025 heading into this report, with shares having more than doubled year to date.

Rivian climbs after hours as it beats on top and bottom lines

Rivian posted its third-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.

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markets

Super Micro tumbles after reporting disappointing results, boosts full-year sales outlook

Super Micro Computer just released results for its fiscal Q1, the three months ended September 30, and they’re a top- and bottom-line miss — but with very strong sales guidance for the current quarter and a boost to the full-year outlook.

Shares are sinking in after-hours trading.

The Q1 results:

Net sales: $5 billion (estimate: $6.1 billion, guidance of about $5 billion)
Adjusted diluted net income per share: $$0.35 (estimate: $0.41, guidance of $0.40 to $0.52).

Its fiscal Q2 guidance:

Net sales: $10 to 11 billion (estimate: $8.1 billion)
Adjusted diluted net income per share: $0.46 to $0.54 (estimate: $0.62).

The server giant took away some of the suspense from these results by announcing preliminary figures on October 23, saying Q1 net sales would be about $5 billion, which it attributed to “recent design wins in excess of $12 billion, requesting delivery in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026” — that is, the quarter we’re currently in. That figure was far short of the consensus estimate and its previously-issued guidance for the quarter.

(Hilariously, the consensus estimate only went down to $6.1 billion from $6.5 billion after that release).

At that time, president and CEO Charlies Liang reiterated expectations for $33 billion in sales for fiscal year 2026. Management now upped that full-year sales outlook to $36 billion. Analysts were expecting $32.6 billion.

Pushing back the timing of expected sales has been a common theme for Super Micro this calendar year.

Tasha Matsumoto, Luke Kawa

Stocks sell off as tech falls and investors question frothy valuations

Stocks tumbled and the VIX rose as investors worried about a broader pullback.

Brown bear (Ursus arctos) looks out of its den in the woods under a large rock in winter

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