Markets
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Luke Kawa

US private sector job creation is sputtering

The August non-farm payrolls report showed the private sector added just 118,000 jobs in April, lower than the 140,000 estimate, with downward revisions taking July’s figure down to a paltry 74,000.

On average, private sector job growth is running at a little over 96,000 from June through August. Excluding the COVID-induced job losses, the US economy hasn’t added this few private sector jobs in a three-month span since 2012.

We can’t really hand-wave away prior bouts of weakness as due to bad weather. This is a trend and the latest addition to the pattern of lackluster US jobs data.

Traders are pricing the odds of a 25 versus a 50 basis point cut at this month’s Federal Reserve meeting as a coin flip following this release.

The optimistic spin on the August jobs data is that the unemployment rate edged lower this month (from 4.3% to 4.2%) and initial jobless claims are subdued, with both metrics well below their historical averages. As well, the prime-age employment rate (that is, the share of 25-54 year olds who have a job) is at 80.9%, tying its cycle high. This could lead you to believe that we’re in a state of maximum employment, and simply running out of people to fill the jobs.

But… we have to take off the rose-colored glasses. That line of thinking is completely undermined by the upward trend in the unemployment rate over the past year and a half. That’s telling us a greater share of people who want a job are unable to find one, and is in direct opposition to the idea that the labor market is doing the best it can do.

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J. Edward Moreno

FDA says it will take “decisive steps” against GLP-1 compounders, HHS refers Hims to DOJ for investigation

The Food and Drug Administration said it would take "decisive steps" to restrict GLP-1 compounding, a day after Hims & Hers announced that it would sell copies ofNovo Nordisk’sWegovy pill.

The FDA specifically called out Hims in the announcement. Additionally, Department of Health and Human Services' General Counsel Mike Stuart said in a post on X on Friday he has referred Hims to the Department of Justice "for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions."

In a statement, Hims said the company "has always operated with a deep commitment to the safety and best interests of consumers and in compliance with applicable law."

"We have a long history of successfully working with regulators, and look forward to continuing to engage with the FDA to ensure safe access to affordable healthcare," they said.

This marks a significant shift in tone from the FDA, which has done little to prevent companies like Hims from marketing copies of Novo's lucrative weight loss drugs.

Shares of Hims fell 14% after hours. The stock had already taken a hit after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said in an X post on Thursday that the agency would “take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs.”

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Hims, long flying under regulators’ radar, finally strikes a nerve with its Wegovy pill copy

Hims, long flying under regulators’ radar, finally strikes a nerve with its Wegovy pill copy

The FDA specifically called out Hims in the announcement. Additionally, Department of Health and Human Services' General Counsel Mike Stuart said in a post on X on Friday he has referred Hims to the Department of Justice "for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions."

In a statement, Hims said the company "has always operated with a deep commitment to the safety and best interests of consumers and in compliance with applicable law."

"We have a long history of successfully working with regulators, and look forward to continuing to engage with the FDA to ensure safe access to affordable healthcare," they said.

This marks a significant shift in tone from the FDA, which has done little to prevent companies like Hims from marketing copies of Novo's lucrative weight loss drugs.

Shares of Hims fell 14% after hours. The stock had already taken a hit after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said in an X post on Thursday that the agency would “take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs.”

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Tasha Matsumoto
11h
Tech rebound propels stocks to best day since May

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all climbed higher as the AI trade was back on.

Chicago Bulls Dennis Rodman (91) and Michael Jordan (23) in action, rebounding vs Charlotte Hornets
Max Knoblauch

Airlines rise, continuing their volatile 2026, as US-Iran talks may foreshadow some oil supply relief

Airline stocks are surging on Friday, as the market appears to be pricing in some medium-term oil pricing relief following talks between the US and Iran. Iranian officials referred to the meeting as “a good beginning.”

Shares of budget carriers, which have tighter margins and are more sensitive to fluctuations in fuel costs, are leading the surge. Frontier Airlines and Allegiant up more than 13%, while major airlines like United Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines are also up at least 6%. JetBlue and Alaska Air are similarly up about 6%.

The market more broadly is rebounding on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and bitcoin recovering some of this week’s losses.

Airlines have been volatile to start 2026 amid geopolitical tensions, varying annual forecasts, and the impact of winter storms.

markets
Luke Kawa

The AI supply chain is soaring thanks to Amazon’s capex budget

If tech companies are going to spend way more than expected on capex, well, that means other companies are poised to benefit from that massive spending spree.

Amazon’s plan for $200 billion in business investment this year was the exclamation point to end a reporting period that saw every Magnificent 7 hyperscaler that provides guidance offer a 2026 capex budget well above what Wall Street had anticipated.

Here’s a look at the different parts of the supply chain that are soaring on the persistent demand for, and seeming scarcity of, AI compute:

Big Tech capital expenditure soared in 2025. It’s going up another 50% in 2026.

Big Tech capital expenditure soared in 2025. It’s going up another 50% in 2026.

Here’s a look at the different parts of the supply chain that are soaring on the persistent demand for, and seeming scarcity of, AI compute:

markets
Matt Phillips

For memory chips, the “parabolic price hike” is continuing to ramp higher

The remarkable run-up in prices for memory chips continued into early February, analysts at Bernstein Research say, driven largely by data center demand from hyperscalers and cloud service providers (CSP).

Prices for NAND flash memory wafers — a type of memory used in devices, as it retains data even when powered down — soared 35% between the end of 2025 and February 2.

Spot prices for DRAM — ubiquitous short-term data storage chips — jumped about 28% in that period. But that massively understates the remarkable shift in pricing for what were long seen as commodity tech hardware inputs. DRAM prices are more than 2,000% over the last year, while NAND prices are up more than 600% in that period.

The ongoing momentum provides still more support for memory chip plays like Micron and Sandisk, which have been big market winners in recent months.

In a note published earlier this week, Bernstein Research analysts wrote:

“The parabolic price hike continued in Jan. Indicated price increase for 1QCY26 is much stronger than we expected and we hence see upside to our near term memory pricing projection. Unrelenting CSP demand remained the main driver. PC and Mobile demand hasn’t been destroyed yet because of lean inventory & pull-forward purchase. Going forward price hike is expected to continue but likely at a slower rate, as PC and Mobile demand should contract meaningfully this year. Price however may stay elevated throughout this year, supported by CSP demand.”

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