Luke Kawa4/21/25

US stocks dumped as recession fears ramp higher

Monday was a “sell everything” day in US markets, with stocks, bonds, and currency all taking it on the chin. Traders seemingly ratcheted their views on recession risk higher as more prominent economists warned of a US downturn, and they also reacted to escalating critiques of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Donald Trump. The president reportedly met with executives from retail giants Walmart, Target, and Home Depot, among others, to get intel on what tariffs are doing to their business outlooks.

Stocks managed to recover from their lows of the day in the last hour of trading, with the S&P 500 finishing down 2.4%, the Nasdaq 100 off 2.5%, and the Russell 2000 2.1% lower on the day.

Consumer discretionary, energy, and tech were the worst-performing S&P 500 sectors, and all but consumer staples and materials fell at least 2%.

Nvidia tanked as its earnings estimates start to come under the knife, leaving little appeal for the stock even as it’s become cheap to the S&P 500 relative to history.

Tesla, which reports earnings on Tuesday, tumbled following a report from Reuters that the electric vehicle company’s lower-cost Model Y is being delayed once again.

Netflix, which reported strong earnings after the close last Thursday, managed to hold on to some gains amid a host of analysts upping their price target on the stock, thinking it can weather any negative lurch in the economy.

Uber declined after being sued by the Federal Trade Commission, which alleges that the ride-hailing service deceived customers and made it difficult to cancel its subscription service.

Boeing fell on the heels of reports from Reuters that jets sent to China have been returned to sender.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

Job growth was 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.

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Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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