Markets
Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa
7/31/25

US stocks end July on a soft note


The S&P 500 opened 1% higher after last night’s blockbuster earnings from Microsoft and Meta lit a fire under the entire AI complex. Unfortunately, the day only got worse from there.

US stocks slid throughout the session, ending near their lows. The S&P 500 gave back 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 underperformed with a 0.9% decline.

This ends July as the S&P 500’s first month without a daily gain or loss of at least 1% since two years ago, in July 2023.

Healthcare was far and away the worst-performing S&P 500 sector ETF, with drugmakers including Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Novo Nordisk falling after President Trump sent a letter to 17 pharma CEOs demanding they cut US drug prices within 60 days.

On the positive side, eBay soared 18%, touching an all-time high a day after the online marketplace posted strong Q2 results and analysts issued a pair of price target hikes. Declines were led by Align Technology, which sank a massive 36% after the Invisalign maker missed both top- and bottom-line Q2 estimates.

Elsewhere…

Meta shares jumped another 11% after the social media and AI behemoth topped Q2 estimates Wednesday. Ad revenue — which makes up the majority of its total — leapt 21%.

Microsoft shares rose another 4% after the company’s blowout fiscal Q4 earnings, pushing its valuation above $4 trillion for the first time.

Norwegian Cruise Line sailed up 9% after the cruise operator reaffirmed full-year guidance despite so-so Q2 results, citing a rebound in bookings.

Roblox jumped 10% after the gaming platform beat estimates, with total bookings climbing to $1.4 billion.

CVS Health climbed as much as 6% before closing flat after the pharmacy retailer topped Q2 estimates and raised its full-year outlook.

SoFi Technologies bounced up 3%, marking its third straight day of big moves after Deutsche Bank and Mizuho hiked their price targets on the stock.

Comcast shares closed up 2.2% after the media and cable giant delivered a strong Q2 earnings beat, fueled in part by the debut of its Epic Universe park and hit Peacock shows.

AB InBev fell 13% as the world’s largest brewer continued to report declining sales volume with each passing quarter.

Cigna shares dropped 10%, despite the healthcare insurer beating Q2 estimates and showing solid cost control during the quarter.

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Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa
9/19/25
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 end the week with fresh record closing highs

Another day, another record high for US stocks.

Charging Bull
markets
Luke Kawa

We’re about to enter the historically worst week of the year for US stocks

The September scaries — the tendency for US stocks to perform poorly in the ninth month of the year — have seemingly been vanquished this year. So far.

However, Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, was very early in highlighting a peculiar calendar quirk that implies some potential downside risk for next week.

Monday marks the start of the 39th trading week of the year. That’s historically been the worst week for the S&P 500, based on data going back to 1990, and the week that’s seen the highest incidence of 1% drops for the benchmark US stock index.

“Meanwhile, the week after next is the one where stocks are most likely to have a moment,” he wrote on September 11 (last Thursday). “There is something special about the week after September expiry and this has been true for basically ever. Could be a bit of the old fooled by randomness, but anyway.”

Median return of S&P 500 by week
Source: Brent Donnelly, Spectra Markets
% of time S&P 500 sees weekly drop of 1% or more
Source: Brent Donnelly, Spectra Markets

Donnelly also separately flagged, though, that seasonality has not been that useful of a trading tool this year:

“2025 has not been good for the seasonality believers. My view is that seasonality functions mostly because of asymmetry of flows and human behavior around specific times of the year and political and macro shocks are bigger than those flows. So if you have a series of randomly-timed policy shocks month after month, that will blow the flows and the behavioral seasonality out of the water. That’s my explanation for why seasonality has not worked this year. But I could be wrong.”

markets
Luke Kawa

Retail traders’ favorite stocks are on a record winning streak

Relatively speculative small-cap stocks, many of which are beloved by retail traders, are basking in the glow of the renewed Federal Reserve rate cuts.

A Goldman Sachs basket of stocks widely held by the retail community is going straight up and to the right, poised for a record 10th straight day of gains. It’s up 13% over this stretch.

Fed rate cuts provide a more supportive financing environment for smaller firms, and as such, a lower risk of default.

Quantum computing companies Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, which are both constituents in the aforementioned basket, are up big on Friday on little news. However, there is one report from Cyberscoop that the US government “is considering a broader set of actions related to quantum computing, both to improve the nation’s capacity to defend against future quantum-enabled hacks,” which may be spurring some buying activity.

On Thursday, Rigetti and IonQ announced fresh initiatives with the government.

Also enjoying big gains are classic meme stocks AMC Networks and SoundHound AI, both of which are not in Goldman’s group but also often receive a ton of retail attention.

For AMC at least, there’s a more fundamental catalyst at play: the theater chain announced that it’ll be hosting release parties for the upcoming Taylor Swift album, “The Life of a Showgirl.”

markets
Nia Warfield

FedEx pops after delivering Q1 earnings beat and receiving price target boost

FedEx shares rose Friday after the courier giant delivered better-than-expected fiscal Q1 results.

The company posted adjusted earnings of $3.83 a share, topping Wall Street’s $3.61 call. Revenue hit $22.2 billion, also ahead of forecasts, thanks to strong US delivery volumes, even as tariff pressures weighed on its international business.

Looking ahead, FedEx gave a full-year outlook calling for 4% to 6% sales growth and adjusted EPS between $17.20 and $19. That stacks up against Street expectations of 3.3% sales growth and EPS of $18.34. The company also reiterated plans to spin off its freight arm by mid-2026.

The stock got a price target boost from TD Cowen, which inched its estimate up to $271 from $269 while keeping a “buy” rating.

Even with Friday’s pop, FedEx shares are still down about 17% this year.

markets
Luke Kawa

Micron’s record-setting winning streak ends with a thud

Gravity has come for Micron.

The memory chipmaking specialist has been on an unreal run, rising for a record 12 consecutive sessions before Friday’s plunge.

The stock had been buoyed by the continued drumbeat of positive news regarding the expansion of AI data centers, rising more than 40% during its streak of up days. Its winning streak had pushed shares above Wall Street analysts’ average price target.

The company reports earnings next week.

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