Markets
Tesla Reports First Annual Sales Drop
(Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Wall Street says Tesla really isn’t about cars anyway

It’s more about the hazy and tough-to-quantify potential for Musk’s business.

1/2/25 5:40PM

So Tesla’s fourth-quarter auto deliveries whiffed versus expectations and year-over-year annual sales were down for the first time since the company went public.

Not great. But analysts have been saying for a while that the bull case for Tesla simply can’t be premised on growth in the EV auto market.

No, the storyline now is all about the hazy and tough-to-quantify potential for businesses like Tesla’s full self-driving software and Cybercab under a Trump administration. Trump seems fairly receptive to ideas from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who, after all, dipped into his spare-change jar and spent about $250 million to make Trump 2.0 a reality.

“We reiterate our belief that traction on [full self-driving] and Cybercab will be critical drivers to TSLA shares in 2025,” wrote Stephen Gengaro, an analyst covering Tesla for brokerage firm Stifel.

Analysts at Baird wrote that they “believe growth in the Energy business, launching (and scaling) a robotaxi business, and expanding the capabilities/use of Optimus are additional milestones to watch for, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Generating excitement about the future among retail shareholders is a speciality of Musk, and arguably it’s that skill — and his alchemical ability to transform it into a financial advantage in the form of dirt-cheap capital from a devoutly loyal shareholder base — that has made him the world’s wealthiest man.

On the other hand, at a certain point excitement has to turn into tangible results. And the never-ending delays and lack of details surrounding the Cybercab, for instance, or the problems with Tesla’s self-driving software — analysts from Truist on Thursday published a note that bluntly said they couldn’t recommend using full self-driving as it’s “not ready for prime time yet” — could be a concern, especially if the company can’t reverse Tesla’s stalled-out auto sales.

On that front, it’s pretty clear that Musk’s personal hobby of meddling in politics — his latest political project, for some reason, is doubling down on support for Germany’s extreme right-wing party, AFD — is perhaps unsurprisingly a turnoff to would-be buyers of electric vehicles.

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Rocket lab soars to new record close amid rally for retail faves

Rocket Lab ripped by roughly 10% Friday to close at a new all-time high, riding an upturn of retail enthusiasm for a coterie of tech-themed favorites, even as the broader market was more or less flat on the day.

Goldman Sachs’ basket of “retail favorites” — its heaviest weights are Reddit, AppLovin, and Tempus AI — was the second-biggest gainer among the company’s flagship US equity baskets on Friday, rising about 1.6%. The S&P was almost dead flat.

It’s not Rocket Lab’s first retail rodeo, as the money-losing company has more than doubled this year and is up nearly 700% over the last 12 months.

Oracle Wall Street Revisions

Analysts revise up anything and everything they thought about Oracle

After the company’s bombshell earnings this week, Wall Street thinks Oracle’s trajectory has changed.

markets

Six Flags pops after reiterating its guidance as theme park attendance rebounds

Six Flags shares rose more than 7% today after the company reported a rebound in attendance and early season pass sales heading into the fall. The nine-week period ended August 31 saw 17.8 million guests, up about 2% from the same stretch last year, with stronger momentum in the final four weeks. 

More importantly, Six Flags reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $860 million to $910 million, showing confidence that its cost and operations strategy can stay strong for the duration of the year. Riding that wave, Six Flags also said early 2026 season pass unit sales are pacing ahead of last year, and average season pass prices are up about 3%.

The good vibes come despite a drop in in-park per-capita spending, especially from admissions, where promotions and changes to attendance mix (which parks or days guests visit) have weighed. Earlier this week, the amusement giant signed a new agreement that extended its position as the exclusive amusement park partner for Peanuts™ in North America through 2030.

Despite the rally, Six Flags shares are down about 52% year to date.

markets

Rivian turns red on the year, squeezed by a recall and the looming end of the EV tax credit

Shares of EV maker Rivian are down more than 5% on Friday following the company’s recall of 24,214 vehicles due to a software issue. The stock move erases Rivian’s year-to-date gain and turns the company negative on the year.

Rivian’s 2025 model year R1S and R1T are affected by the defect, which was identified after a vehicle’s hands-free highway assist software failed to identify another vehicle on the road, causing a low-speed collision. Rivian said it’s released an over-the-air update to fix the issue.

The recall marks Rivian’s fifth this year, affecting nearly 70,000 of its vehicles.

Rivian’s shares are down more than 20% from their 2025 high, which came prior to the passage of President Trump’sbig, beautiful bill.” Through the legislation, the $7,500 EV tax credit is set to expire at the end of the month.

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