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Tesla Reports First Annual Sales Drop
(Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Wall Street says Tesla really isn’t about cars anyway

It’s more about the hazy and tough-to-quantify potential for Musk’s business.

So Tesla’s fourth-quarter auto deliveries whiffed versus expectations and year-over-year annual sales were down for the first time since the company went public.

Not great. But analysts have been saying for a while that the bull case for Tesla simply can’t be premised on growth in the EV auto market.

No, the storyline now is all about the hazy and tough-to-quantify potential for businesses like Tesla’s full self-driving software and Cybercab under a Trump administration. Trump seems fairly receptive to ideas from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who, after all, dipped into his spare-change jar and spent about $250 million to make Trump 2.0 a reality.

“We reiterate our belief that traction on [full self-driving] and Cybercab will be critical drivers to TSLA shares in 2025,” wrote Stephen Gengaro, an analyst covering Tesla for brokerage firm Stifel.

Analysts at Baird wrote that they “believe growth in the Energy business, launching (and scaling) a robotaxi business, and expanding the capabilities/use of Optimus are additional milestones to watch for, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Generating excitement about the future among retail shareholders is a speciality of Musk, and arguably it’s that skill — and his alchemical ability to transform it into a financial advantage in the form of dirt-cheap capital from a devoutly loyal shareholder base — that has made him the world’s wealthiest man.

On the other hand, at a certain point excitement has to turn into tangible results. And the never-ending delays and lack of details surrounding the Cybercab, for instance, or the problems with Tesla’s self-driving software — analysts from Truist on Thursday published a note that bluntly said they couldn’t recommend using full self-driving as it’s “not ready for prime time yet” — could be a concern, especially if the company can’t reverse Tesla’s stalled-out auto sales.

On that front, it’s pretty clear that Musk’s personal hobby of meddling in politics — his latest political project, for some reason, is doubling down on support for Germany’s extreme right-wing party, AFD — is perhaps unsurprisingly a turnoff to would-be buyers of electric vehicles.

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The US government is taking a 10% equity stake in USA Rare Earth, the FT reports

The US government is poised to invest $1.6 billion in USA Rare Earth via a mix of equity and debt, according to a report from the Financial Times on Saturday.

Per the FT, the Trump administration will receive a 10% stake in the company (as well as warrants) which were priced at about a 30% discount to where the stock closed on Friday. Shares of the rare earths producer had jumped 9% to end the week on a high note, as did most of its peers. The rally came amid President Donald Trump’s push for a deal that gives the US more control over Greenland, including access to its mineral resources.

The equity position reportedly accounts for less than $300 million of the $1.6 billion package, with the remained dedicated to debt and linked to the CHIPS Act.

Aside from Intel and L3Harris, the Trump administration’s forays into equity ownership have focused on critical minerals producers. These include a 15% position in MP Materials revealed in July as well as 5% and 10% stakes in Lithium Americas and Trilogy Metals, respectively, announced in October.

The government’s involvement has helped spur more private interest in the space, both from massive institutions like JPMorgan aiming to support the development of strategically important industries as well as investors looking to “follow the feds” and own companies that the government has already invested in or may do so in the future in hopes of outsized returns.

Other companies involved in the production of rare earths and other critical minerals include Critical Metals, United States Antimony Corp., and American Battery Technology Co..

Hong Kong Disneyland Marvel Season Of Super Hero Media Day

Earnings season a chance for AI hyperscalers to “get their mojo back”

Hyperscalers need more “hype” on their potential AI moneymaking opportunities or to show that their “scale” continues to drive huge growth through this spending binge.

Luke Kawa1/23/26
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Active ETF offers exposure to Elon Musk’s SpaceX

Active ETF Baron First Principles ETF has added a large stake in Elon Musk’s privately held SpaceX, with daily disclosures of the active ETFs holdings on Friday showing SpaceX now makes up 22% of the fund’s portfolio.

Such a stake would open up a potentially big opportunity for those looking to get access to some of the eccentric billionaire’s privately held business empire, ahead of any public offering of the shares — which is reportedly in the works for this year.

Run by mutual fund manager Ron Baron, the ETF also owns stakes in other Musk vehicles such as privately held xAI and publicly traded Tesla. The fund — which has only been trading since December 15 — is down slightly on the day.

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Luke Kawa

AMD jumps as Intel’s supply constraints offer chance for CPU market share gains

As investors react negatively to Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s warning that the chipmaker’s turnaround effort will be a “multiyear journey,” that cautionary note is also a reminder that Advanced Micro Devices has more time to make hay while the sun shines.

AMD had been one of the companies with the most to lose should attempts by the government and Nvidia to prop up the beleaguered chipmaker bear fruit. In particular, Intel and AMD are locked in a fierce competition in the CPU market. During its earnings call on Thursday, Intel said that supply constraints were preventing the company from realizing strong demand.

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur thinks that gives AMD more room to continue to muscle in on Intel’s CPU turf.

“We still view Intel as being at risk of further share loss in its product businesses (particularly in server CPU given AMD’s strong product portfolio/roadmap and Intel’s supply constraints),” he wrote.

AMD is up nearly 3% as of 11:40 a.m. ET, working on its ninth straight day of gains. A positive close would match its longest winning streak since 2005.

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