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Same Strategy, different outcome

Why copying Strategy’s playbook isn’t working for GameStop

Buying bitcoin is an arbitrage play for Strategy that lets management take advantage of the elevated valuation of its shares. For GameStop, it’s something that puts the source of its premium valuation at risk.

Luke Kawa

GameStop is doing the exact same thing as Strategy: issuing convertible notes to (presumably) buy bitcoin.

Yet the tactic that’s seemingly worked so well for Strategy CEO Michael Saylor isn’t working for GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen, based on the stock’s tumble after Wednesday’s announcement.

What’s the difference here?

Well, as my former colleague Jack Raines explained, (then Micro)Strategy has had a huge incentive to raise capital to buy bitcoin. The market ascribes a much higher value to the stock than the value of its underlying bitcoin holdings. And it’s not like the underlying business is doing much to justify that — revenues have been flat to down over the past decade. To oversimplify, as long as this massive premium exists, Strategy can reasonably say that it’s selling high (on its stock) and buying low (in bitcoin), regardless of the price of the cryptocurrency.

On the other hand, GameStop already has an asset on its balance sheet that investors are ascribing huge value to: its cash. We can tell this because the company’s book value per share soared after capital raises in 2024 amid the meme stock mania, and has remained very elevated thereafter. Cash, equivalents, and short-term investments currently make up about 80% of GameStop’s assets, which is the numerator in book value per share.

“GameStop is following the MicroStrategy playbook, but MicroStrategy currently trades at less than 2x the value of its Bitcoin holdings,” wrote Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who has an “underperform” rating and $11.50 price target on the stock. “With GameStop already trading at more than 2x its cash holdings it is unlikely that its conversion of cash into Bitcoin will drive an even greater premium.”

While on the surface, this capital raise will increase GameStop’s cash, it’s not a sure bet that this ultimately nets out that way. For starters, let’s assume some cash is turned into bitcoin. Then, remember that holders of these notes will either end up getting their cash back or diluting existing shareholders.

Buying bitcoin is an arbitrage play for Strategy that lets management take advantage of the elevated valuation of its shares. For GameStop, it’s something that puts the source of its premium valuation at risk.

At the same time GameStop was able to raise a lot of cash, the market ascribed a much higher value to that cash. The thinking here was that Cohen would pull off some kind of transformative acquisition that would reinvigorate the company’s future prospects. To quote well-known GameStop bull Keith Gill, “It becomes a bet on the management, in particular, of course, Ryan fucking Cohen.”

Since then, I’d argue Cohen has displayed some operational prowess — just look at the company’s fourth-quarter operating income. But that’s come by making the retailer leaner and less inefficient, rather anything resembling a successful growth strategy.

“We find it hard to understand why any investor would be pay more than 2x cash value for the potential for GameStop to convert that cash into Bitcoin, particularly since the same investors can invest in Bitcoin or a Bitcoin ETF themselves,” Pachter added.

The conclusion here is that traders were simply hoping that whatever Cohen used that cash for, it would be a better investment opportunity than bitcoin.

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Data center trade deep in the red

The data center trade is seeing its steepest sell-off since the market rout that was ignited by President Donald Trump’s Rose Garden tariff announcement back in April.

Goldman Sachs’ themed basket of AI data center shares was down more than 6% at around 12 p.m. ET, putting it on track for its worst day since the tariff announcement.

Losses hammered seemingly every form of input needed for the sprawling concrete server warehouses at the heart of the investment boom.

Hardware makers including data storage companies like Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings, as well as DRAM maker Micron — some of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year — were taking a licking, as were networking stocks Cisco and Arista Networks and data center builders such as Vertiv Holdings and electrical and mechanical contractor Emcor.

Optimism for all things AI has seemed to evaporate throughout the week, as the stock market greeted lackluster quarterly numbers from Oracle and Broadcom with jittery sell-offs and concern about growing debts that could crater cash flows.

Those worries seem to be spreading to ancillary beneficiaries of the AI boom on Friday, gouging a chunk out of charts that retail dip buyers have not — at least so far — stepped in to buy as we head into the weekend.

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Luke Kawa

Oracle denies Bloomberg report that it’s delaying some data centers for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027

Getting a multi-hundred-billion-dollar backlog for cloud computing revenues from data center projects is easy. Building them is hard.

Oracle extended declines to as much as -6.5% on the day on the heels of a Bloomberg report that the cloud giant has pushed back the completion dates for some of the data centers it’s building for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027, citing people familiar with the work. Oracle denied this report, telling Reuters that there have been no delays to any sites required to meet its contractual commitments and that all milestones remain on track.

Shares had fully pared their report-induced drop ahead of Oracle’s reply, but remain in the red for the day.

Bloomberg said the reported postponement was attributed to labor and material shortages.

Oracle has been spending more on capex than Wall Street had anticipated, leading to higher-than-expected cash burn. Management boosted its full-year capital spending plans by $15 billion after reporting Q2 results earlier this week.

Oracle’s cloud infrastructure sales came in short of estimates in its fiscal 2026 Q2, a signal that markets already had reason to doubt its ability to quickly turn its humungous RPO (that is, remaining purchase obligations) into revenues.

Traders also seem to be of the mind that potential delays to data center completions are going to limit sales for what goes into them.

Some of the bigger losers since the Bloomberg headline hit the wires include:

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Luke Kawa

Broadcom’s post-earnings tumble is weighing on Google’s entire AI ecosystem

Broadcom’s post-earnings plunge is prompting a sharp pullback in Google-linked AI stocks, which had been on fire thanks to the warm reception to Gemini 3.

The stocks getting hit hard:

A basket of these Google-linked AI stocks compiled by Morgan Stanley is suffering one of its worst losses of the year. This brisk retreat also follows the release of GPT-5.2 by OpenAI.

markets

Citi initiates coverage of Planet Labs with “buy” rating

Planet Labs was up after aerospace and defense analysts at Citi initiated coverage with a “buy/high risk” rating and $19 price target.

The stock is up more than 40% this week, after a strong earnings result that spotlighted the company’s growing opportunity in linking its core business of capturing daily images of the planet with AI technologies.

Citi analysts noted the potential for a positive flywheel effect for Planet Labs as it deepens its focus on integrating AI into its offerings:

“AI is accelerating the conversion of pixels to decisions, where Planet’s daily scan and deep archive offer a uniquely large training corpus and broad-area foundation for automation. AI-enabled solutions (MDA/GMS/AMS) are gaining traction with customers such as NATO and the U.S. DoW, validating the approach of integrating AI into broad-area monitoring products... These AI moves create a compounding advantage: more coverage generates more training data, which improves models, which in turn increases product utility and addressable demand.”

The stock has also caught the attention of some of the retail trading crowd, with call options activity spiking on Thursday as traders rode the market reaction to the results.

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