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Bookings for China-to-US shipping containers plunge

Bookings for China-to-US shipping containers are down 44.5% from the same time last year.

4/28/25 12:11PM

The dramatic effects of President Trump’s global trade war are starting showing up in the data.

Looking at the signals around Chinese imports to the US — which are subject to a whopping 145% tariff for most goods — we’ve already seen some alarming data. The volume of shipping containers forecast to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles is falling off a cliff.

Looking at the actual bookings for shipping containers coming from China to the US (known as twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs), we can see similar warning signs.

According to data from supply chain analytics firm Vizion, bookings for China-to-US TEUs for the week of April 13 are down 44.5% from the same period last year.

Vizion’s report on the latest data underscored the speed and depth of the decline:

“Between the week of March 24 and April 14, 2025, container bookings from China to the U.S. dropped from 134,911 to 81,239 TEUs — a sharp 39.9% decrease in just three weeks. The decline highlights the severity of the market’s reaction to the April 4 and April 5 tariff announcements, as shippers paused new movements mid-cycle to reassess cost, routing, and inventory risk.”

Looking at both the shipping bookings and the volume of containers arriving at ports, a clear trend is taking place. The report noted:

“The signal is clear. Shippers rushed to move product in Q1, then pulled back sharply as new tariff policies introduced widespread uncertainty. These dramatic shifts, visible in booking data well before they appear at ports or in customs reports, highlight the importance of early indicators in a rapidly changing trade environment.”

Jake Lahut2h

Ceasefire holds on Tuesday morning following an “Exchange of fire” and shipping clashes

The nearly one-month ceasefire in the Middle East was under threat of being shattered, the Times reported, after a series of strikes between the US and Iran escalated on Monday. That fragile ceasefire seems to be holding, however, early on Tuesday.

US warships intercepted Iranian cruise missiles aimed at navy vessels, according to Admiral Brad Cooper, the leader of US Central Command. The US attacked Iranian speedboats in response, per the NYT, and sank six of them, according to Cooper.

On top of the UAE facing a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones the same day, hostilities appeared to be opening up on multiple fronts in the region. Al Jazeera reported one of the strikes hit a key oil facility in the emirate of Fujairah, setting it ablaze.

The BBC reported early Tuesday that Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and a top negotiator in last month’s talks, had written on X: “We know well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America, while we are just getting started.”

Oil prices, by far the strongest and most immediate signal of investor sentiment about the prospect of future clashes, ticked lower on Tuesday morning as reports of attacks diminished and shipping giant Maersk said that one of its ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz under US protection.

Resumed hostilities have US-Iran ceasefire on the ropes

Jake Lahut4/29/26

US on par for $4.50 per gallon in the next week or 2: Gas Buddy

Gas prices shooting up across several Midwestern states is putting the national average on track to hit $4.50 per gallon within the next two weeks, according to Gas Buddy’s Patrick De Haan.

In Michigan, the price went from $3.78 a week ago and $4.18 Tuesday to over $4.25 on Wednesday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Wisconsin, where gas remained below the national average of $4.22 as of Wednesday afternoon, saw a more modest but similar jump up to $3.96 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

Patrick De Haan (@gasbuddyguy.bsky.social)

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

Max Knoblauch4/27/26

In a 1,100-word statement, United CEO says merger talks with American have ended

United’s pursuit of its rival American Airlines has ended, according to a lengthy statement from United CEO Scott Kirby on Monday.

Per Kirby, American “declined to engage” with his “big, bold vision” of a megamerger that would have controlled more than a third of the US market, instead “publicly closing the door.”

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Kirby’s effort — and sheer word count — in explaining the logic and benefits of the deal could be read as evidence that the executive is still in the market for a big combination. A common theory in the industry has been that the megamerger could have been a means to actually pitch a smaller (but still huge) merger between United and JetBlue.

President Trump last week told CNBC that he didn’t like the United-American idea and would instead “love somebody to buy Spirit.” In American’s earnings call last week, CEO Robert Isom swiftly rejected a United merger, saying the two carriers are “going to be roommates and we’re not getting married.”

Statement from United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Millie Giles

CAPITOL LOSSES

4/24/26

Washington, DC, lost over 100,000 jobs last year, the most in the US

Sweeping federal job cuts and a shrinking hospitality sector have resulted in high unemployment in the nation’s capital.

United States Capitol and Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC

Jon Keegan4/23/26

In December, the White House announced a new program to let wealthy foreigners get a shortcut to US citizenship — the “Trump Gold Card.” After paying a $15,000 application fee, passing a vetting process, and ultimately paying a $1 million “contribution,” the applicant gets a card in President Trump’s favorite color that grants the owner US citizenship “in record time.”

So, how many of these rich foreigners have received their shiny ticket to American residency? Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told a House committee today that only one of the cards has been issued, but “hundreds” of applications are being reviewed.

In December, Lutnick predicted that the cards could generate up to $1 trillion in revenue.