Imports are about to collapse at America’s busiest port

This is like watching a car crash in slow motion.

President Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese imports to the US are still hurting businesses, though his stance on how long they’ll be in place may be softening.

Despite the chaotic tariff rollout, companies are turning off the China-to-US trade spigot. But like a garden hose that wraps halfway around the world, it takes some time before the water stops flowing on our end.

A typical cargo ship filled with goods manufactured in China needs two to three weeks to travel to the Port of Los Angeles. After a flurry of panicked pre-tariff imports to fill warehouses, we are about to see what it looks like when most imports from China stop arriving at US ports.

The Port of Los Angeles is the largest port in the US. Sitting on San Pedro Bay, the 7,500-acre facility sprawls across 43 miles of waterfront, filled with cargo and passenger terminals, warehouses, and rail- and truck-based cargo loading. According to the port, about 40% of the imports arriving there originate from China.

Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said in a recent briefing that the tariffs will pinch incoming shipments to the port.

“I expect we’ll see cargo decline in the second half of the year at least 10% compared to 2024,” he said.

Since the announcement of the tariffs, a surge of imports flowed into the port.

“Many importers have already brought their goods in early, and as prices begin to rise, consumers will think twice about many purchases,” Seroka said.

A recent Goldman Sachs research note said that US retailers are expecting a 20% to 30% drop in exports in Q2, which lines up with what Seroka said he was hearing from suppliers in China. “The reports I got out of China and Southeast Asia yesterday is that some really famous brands have put a pause on shipments for the time being,” he said.

In a few short weeks, significant drops are expected in the number of vessels arriving at the port. The week ending May 10 currently has only 12 vessels scheduled to arrive, a 44% drop from the same time last year.

The effects of such a slowdown will be significant, and will likely hurt the local economy. “Here in Los Angeles, tariffs will affect port related jobs, because as we know fewer containers mean fewer jobs here at the port,” Seroka said.