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Stanley tumblers are displayed on a shelf at a Dick's Sporting Goods
(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Tumbling into oblivion: This product is arguably the most uniquely screwed by the tariffs on China

Stanley and Yeti’s distinctive insulated tumblers come from China. What these big cups could cost after trade war increases might cause you to spit out your drink.

Recently we took a deep dive into trade data, looking at what goods we imported almost exclusively from China. One of the top categories of goods was described in the weird, verbose language of international trade as:

"VACUUM FLASKS AND OTHER VACUUM VESSELS, COMPLETE WITH CASES; PARTS THEREOF OTHER THAN GLASS INNERS."

Turns out that the US imported more than $1.6 billion worth of vacuum flasks and parts in 2024, and China supplied 96% of our imports of this category.

So what are they exactly?

Basically this category covers metallic insulated bottles, like thermos mugs, insulated travel coffee mugs, and tumblers. These happen to be really complicated things to make, with many manual steps, as you can see from this oddly fascinating video (do yourself a favor and turn the sound off): 

Stanley

One of the most successful companies in this category is Stanley. The privately owned, 112-year-old brand is probably most well known for a single product that became an unlikely hit and was even the target of a “Saturday Night Live” skit poking fun at the popular “big dumb cups.”

That’s right — it’s the company’s iconic 40-ounce “Quencher Flowstate Tumblers.” Launched into fame by influencers on TikTok who introduced the product to thirsty women during Covid, the colorful tumblers have a cultlike following. In four years, Stanley’s sales went from $73 million in 2019 to $750 million in 2023, CNBC reported. 

Stanley even has its own official loyalty program featuring early access to new tumbler “drops,” with special perks for superfans who collect the most points. Buyers can customize their Quencher Flowstate Tumblers with 32 different colors, along with custom graphics and engraved monograms. 

Stanley website
(Photo: stanley1913.com)

Ship manifest data from ImportYeti shows that in the past year, PMI Worldwide — Stanley’s parent company — imported vacuum flasks via sea shipments mainly from suppliers in China, with a smaller amount coming from Vietnam and Thailand. While the company may have other suppliers delivering goods over land or via air shipping that would not show up in this data, having such reliance on Chinese suppliers for its star product could cause some pain for the company. 

A 40-ounce Quencher H2.0 Flowstate Tumbler (in Cornflower Gloss) sells for $45 on Stanley’s website. If subjected to the full 145% tariff on Chinese imports, that bright blue tumbler could cost $110, a price that even Stanley die-hards might find hard to swallow. 

Yeti

Yeti tumblers are displayed at an REI store on May 09, 2024 in Berkeley, California.
(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Another company that may not be insulated from the effects of President Trump’s tariffs is Yeti, maker of rugged coolers and travel mugs. 

In 2024, Yeti’s total revenue was $1.83 billion, and 60% of that (just over $1 billion) came from its drinkware line, most of which features mugs and tumblers with “kitchen-grade, 18/8 stainless-steel, double-wall vacuum insulation,” according to the company’s 2024 annual report

The company said that it does not own any of its own manufacturing facilities, and that just two manufacturers made up 74% of its drinkware supply in 2024. ImportYeti data (no relation) also shows that the vast majority of Yeti’s sea shipments of vacuum flasks originated from China.

Yeti warned in its annual report about the significant negative impact higher tariffs could have on the business:

“Tariffs have the potential to significantly raise the cost of our products. In such a case, there can be no assurance that we will be able to shift manufacturing and supply agreements to non-impacted countries, including the United States, to reduce the effects of the tariffs.”

The company also predicted that steep tariffs would eat away at profit margins: 

“As a result, we may suffer margin erosion or be required to raise our prices, which may result in the loss of customers, negatively impact our results of operations, or otherwise harm our business. In addition, the imposition of tariffs on products that we export to international markets could make such products more expensive compared to those of our competitors if we pass related additional costs on to our customers, which may also result in the loss of customers, negatively impact our results of operations, or otherwise harm our business.”

Yeti’s Rambler 64-ounce insulated water bottle in “key lime” sells for $65 on the company’s website. If the full 145% tariffs were applied to this bottle, it could cost up to $159.  

Yeti and Stanley did not respond to a request for comment.

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OK, so when was the longest shutdown in US history?

The US government officially shut down at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday after senators failed to agree on a last-minute funding bill. Though initially shrugging off the threat of a shutdown during yesterday’s session, stocks were mildly in the red on Wednesday as investors reacted to what is now the 11th shutdown in the government’s history.

Until this latest shutdown, there had been 20 government funding gaps experienced since 1976 — though not all ended in a full shutdown, with full closure averted in half of those cases.

Indeed, prior to the 1980s, funding gaps didn’t typically have major effects on government operations, with agencies continuing to operate on the basis that the funding would come eventually. However, a more stringent interpretation of the rules led to a stricter appropriations process from the early 1980s onward, with many subsequent funding gaps resulting in a shutdown of affected agencies (unless the gaps were quickly fixed or occurred over a weekend).

Obviously, the duration of the latest shutdown is still unclear, but it will continue until Congress passes a funding bill — most likely via a “continuing resolution,” which has ended every shutdown since 1990. Data analyzed by USAFacts suggest that it might not be a one- or two-day affair, as funding gaps have lengthened in recent years.

Government shutdown patterns
Sherwood News

Indeed, the last shutdown, which began in December 2018, ended up becoming the longest in history, at a whopping 34 days. By the time the government reopened in January 2019, about $3 billion (in 2019 dollars) had been wiped from the GDP in Q4, per data from the Congressional Budget Office, with approximately $18 billion in “federal discretionary spending” delayed over the roughly five-week stretch.

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GM climbs following upgrade, report that Trump administration seeks stake in its lithium mine partner

Shares of General Motors rose more than 2% in premarket trading Wednesday following an upgrade of the stock by UBS from neutral to buy. The firm also hiked its price target for GM by 45% to $81.

Also likely elevating GM was a Reuters report that the Trump administration is exploring taking a 10% stake in Lithium Americas, the automaker’s partner in a yet to open Thacker Pass lithium mine. Shares of Lithium Americas surged 68% in the premarket.

GM, which invested $625 million into the lithium mine last year, holds a 38% stake in the joint venture. The mine is expected to become the Western Hemispheres primary lithium source in 2028, when it’s slated to open, producing enough of the metal to make 800,000 electric vehicle batteries.

Prior to its plans for Lithium Americas, the Trump administration last month said it would take a 10% stake in Intel. In July, it announced a 15% stake in rare earths miner MP Materials.

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