White House Washington DC Presidential Election

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Here’s how stocks see the presidential race

It’s been a tumultuous election season and tonight’s debate could shake up the race — and the markets.

9/10/24 11:54AM

The stock market is almost dead flat early Tuesday, ahead of the tonight’s presidential debate between Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Donald Trump.

Investors good have reason to sit on their hands for the moment and see how it plays out. It’s been a tumultuous election season that has involved the cataclysmic debate performance of President Biden on June 27, the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13, and Biden’s decision to drop out of the race on July 21.

Polling and prediction markets both have the election as a dead heat, with many seeing tonight’s debate — set for 9 p.m. ET in Philadelphia — as perhaps one of the few remaining events before November that could potentially shake up a race that seems to be solidifying.

Gauging the state of the race by the looking at the stock market is always a fraught exercise, given the plethora of company specific and economy-wide elements that can impact share prices.

But Goldman Sachs thematic baskets of stocks that stand to benefit from either GOP or Democratic policies seem to confirm the topsy-turvy nature of the race since the Biden-Trump debate.

The GOP basket — weighted toward companies such as steel firms that would benefit from steep tariffs Trump has promised — opened up a lead in the aftermath of the first debate and the assassination attempt of Trump.

But that lead collapsed once Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, with the Democratic policy basket — weighted toward solar firms and home builders, among others — taking the lead.

Both baskets took a bath with the steep 10% sell-off that hit the market in early August. But the Democratic convention in Chicago seemed to give the Democratic basket a lift by a good four percentage points or so.

Whether that changes drastically in the aftermath of tonight’s debate could shed a bit of light of who won, at least in the eyes of traders.

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Jon Keegan3/25/26

Trump pulls tech execs even closer, adding Zuckerberg, Huang, Ellison, and others to tech council

President Trump has had a close relationship with America’s biggest tech leaders. They have flown across the world for investment announcements, attended intimate dinners at the White House, donned tuxedos and white ties for royal banquets, and have been known to bring golden gifts to him in the Oval Office.

Today he brings them in even closer. The White House announced that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and close pal and Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison will join a new President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, along with 10 other tech leaders including Dell founder Michael Dell and Google cofounder Sergey Brin.

According to the White House, the group will “focus on topics related to the opportunities and challenges that emerging technologies present to the American workforce, and ensuring all Americans thrive in the Golden Age of Innovation.”

The full list of appointees:

Trump Names Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Ellison, and Jensen Huang to Tech Panel

The full list of appointees:

Saleah Blancaflor3/16/26

Prediction markets show a tight (and tightening) Illinois Democratic Senate primary

It’s primary election time in Illinois, and as voters in the state head to the polls on March 17, there are a few races to watch closely across both parties.

While polls show that Darren Bailey is leading in the Republican race for governor, the primary election for a rare seat in the Democratic Senate to replace Sen. Dick Durbin is proving to be a tight one.

At the top of the 10-candidate race are Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, and Robin Kelly. Krishnamoorthi, a lawmaker from Chicago’s 8th Congressional District, was an early front-runner, received funding and support from several Congress members for the seat. Kelly, who represented the South Side’s 2nd Congressional District, has support from the Congressional Black Caucus and South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn. Meanwhile, Stratton has been endorsed by Gov. JB Pritzker, whose administration she used to work for, as well as Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

While polls suggested that Krishnamoorthi was favored to win, Stratton has seen a boost and late surge, though Krishnamoorthi still remains close behind. Capitol News Illinois reports that Illinois Future PAC, funded by Pritzker, has spent more than $10 million on ads elevating Stratton. Meanwhile, two PACs affiliated with the crypto industry have attempted to attack Stratton and promote Kelly. Indian American Impact, which endorsed Krishnamoorthi, reportedly employed similar tactics against Stratton.

Political insiders tell Capitol News Illinois the race could go either way, but they still expect Krishnamoorthi to come out on top. Prediction markets currently show that Stratton narrowly leading Krishnamoorthi.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Jon Keegan

3/11/26

Group of retired senior military officers and Microsoft file briefs supporting Anthropic in lawsuit

Anthropic sues the US government

In response to the Pentagon’s unprecedented, punitive determination that Anthropic is a national security supply chain risk, the AI startup has sued the US government.

Jon Keegan3/9/26

J. Edward Moreno2/27/26

OpenAI is reportedly working with Pentagon to hash out guardrails amid Anthropic standoff over AI safety

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the company is working with the Pentagon to negotiate safety guardrails for AI models used in the battlefield, which comes as one of its top competitors, Anthropic, is at a standoff with the government.

According to a memo obtained by several media outlets, Altman told staff OpenAI believes “that AI should not be used for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons, and that humans should remain in the loop for high-stakes automated decisions. These are our main red lines.”

Anthropic, the company behind the AI chatbot Claude, was one of several firms that received a $200 million contract from the Department of Defense for “agentic workflows.”

Since then, tensions between Anthropic and the Pentagon have reportedly risen as the startup insists on surveillance restrictions. The government’s attack on Venezuela last month that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro reportedly involved the use of Anthropic’s Claude AI models for planning, which caused the startup to push back on the alleged violation of its terms of use.

Anthropic has until 5:01 p.m. ET on Friday to reach a deal with the Pentagon, which has threatened consequences against the company if it doesn’t allow the government unrestricted use.

Altman’s comments come as the Financial Times reports that executives at Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are being pushed by workers to support Anthropic in its dispute with the Pentagon and adopt similar guardrails as the Claude company in any work they undertake with the US military.

Sam Altman says OpenAI shares Anthropic's red lines in Pentagon fight

Anthropic, the company behind the AI chatbot Claude, was one of several firms that received a $200 million contract from the Department of Defense for “agentic workflows.”

Anthropic has until 5:01 p.m. ET on Friday to reach a deal with the Pentagon, which has threatened consequences against the company if it doesn’t allow the government unrestricted use.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.