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Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Yesterday, the US Federal Trade Commission voted 3-to-2 for a near-total ban on non-compete agreements, the contract stipulations that prevent millions of employees — from bankers, to biochemists, to bartenders — from finding new work or starting businesses in their field after they leave their jobs.

Lost clause

The new rule, coming almost 3 years after Biden signed an executive order that encouraged limiting the agreements, will work to prevent the “unfair methods of competition” from keeping wages low, suppressing new ideas, and “robbing the American economy of dynamism”, according to FTC Chair Lina Khan.

The FTC reports that non-competes affect nearly 1 in 5 American workers, with the regulator also estimating that the ban will raise the average employee’s annual earnings by $524 and create thousands of new startups.

While the $524 average pay rise is a theoretical benefit for now, there is a substantial body of evidence that suggests moving jobs is a good way to get a pay bump. Data from the Atlanta Fed reveals that, for much of the last 24 years, the employees who go, rather than stay, have typically seen larger pay rises within 12 months. The theory follows that reducing frictions in that switching process would lead to more competition for talent and, thus, rising wages.

Still, the anti-anti-competition measure has already drawn criticism from industry groups that consider the move too drastic. The Chamber of Commerce, the largest business lobby in the US, plans to sue the regulator as early as today on the basis of the “dangerous precedent” that the ban sets for government involvement in business and compromises its ability to protect confidential information.

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When is TrumpRx launching?

Not on schedule, for one thing.

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Jon Keegan

FTC will appeal Meta antitrust case

Only a few months after successfully defending itself from an FTC antitrust lawsuit, Meta may be heading back to court. Today, the FTC announced that it would appeal the decision, reopening a yearslong suit.

The FTC called Meta’s acquisition of Instagram and WhatsApp an illegal monopoly. The judge in the case found that in the years since the suit was first brought, the competitive landscape had changed dramatically, with Meta facing fierce competition from TikTok.

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Netflix goes all-cash in bid for Warner Bros., boosting its odds

Netflix on Tuesday applied more pressure to Paramount Skydance in the ongoing bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery, amending its offer to an all-cash proposal.

Netflix shares ticked up in premarket trading, while Paramount and Warner Bros. were down less than 1%.

The move, which was expected, does not increase the value of Netflix’s $82.7 billion offer for WBD. Netflix said shareholders will be able to vote on the deal in April.

In a Tuesday filing, Warner Bros. said that it values Discovery Global, the spin-off of its cable assets, at between $1.33 and $6.86 per share. Earlier this month, Paramount said it valued the cable TV business at $0 per share.

With Tuesday’s update, event contracts have swung even further in Netflix’s favor, with Paramount’s odds to end up in control of Warner Bros. falling to 14%. That’s below the odds for “none.”

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

The move, which was expected, does not increase the value of Netflix’s $82.7 billion offer for WBD. Netflix said shareholders will be able to vote on the deal in April.

In a Tuesday filing, Warner Bros. said that it values Discovery Global, the spin-off of its cable assets, at between $1.33 and $6.86 per share. Earlier this month, Paramount said it valued the cable TV business at $0 per share.

With Tuesday’s update, event contracts have swung even further in Netflix’s favor, with Paramount’s odds to end up in control of Warner Bros. falling to 14%. That’s below the odds for “none.”

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Paramount doesn’t improve its offer for Warner Bros., leaving its fate to a long-shot shareholder appeal

Paramount Skydance on Thursday reaffirmed its $30-per-share offer to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, again stating that it believes the offer to be superior to rival Netflix’s.

In a press release, Paramount said its last amendment to the offer — which included a $40.4 billion personal guarantee from Larry Ellison, the father of Paramount CEO David Ellison — “cured every issue raised by WBD.”

The problem: Warner Bros.’ board on Wednesday unanimously voted to reject that offer, its sixth rejection of a Paramount takeover and second rejection of this specific $30-per-share bid. Warner’s board stated that it believes Paramount’s offer to be inferior to Netflix’s due in part to an “extraordinary amount of debt financing” and lower effective termination fees should the deal not clear the regulatory process.

By not improving the bid, Paramount is effectively leaving the deal in the hands of Warner Bros.’ shareholders, who will have to weigh the bids and the multiple rejections. Event contracts show a moderate boost in Parmount’s odds to end up in control of WBD on Thursday morning, jumping to 31% as of 9:30 a.m. ET, up from 27% at 9:00 a.m. ET.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Warner Bros. Discovery’s board tells shareholders to turn down Paramount’s “inadequate” hostile bid

Warner Bros. Discovery has told shareholders to reject Paramount’s hostile takeover bid, with the company releasing a statement early Wednesday urging shareholders to take the Netflix offer on the table. WBD’s board of directors said the outcome of the Netflix deal is “extraordinary by any measure.”

Paramount’s offer, in contrast, was described in the letter as “illusory,” providing “inadequate value,” and likely to impose “numerous, significant risks and costs on WBD.” The board said Paramount has “misled WBD shareholders that its proposed transaction has a ‘full backstop’ from the Ellison family,” and the board also outlined that it doesn’t believe there is a “material difference in regulatory risk between the PSKY offer and the Netflix merger.”

WBD shares dipped in the minutes leading up to the market close on Tuesday after news leaked that its management was preparing to encourage shareholders to reject Paramounts bid, and shares of the HBO parent were down at $28.66, off 0.83% from yesterday’s close, as of 7:56 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Netflix was ticking higher, up around 1.7%, and Paramount Skydance was modestly in the red, down 1%.

Several outlets have reported that Jared Kushners firm would back out of the group that had been assembled to help finance the Paramount bid. Confirming this withdrawal, a spokesperson for the firm helmed by the president’s son-in-law told NBC News that “the dynamics ​of the investment have changed significantly ​since we initially became ​involved ​in October.”

Analysts this month have said that a renewed bidding war for Warner Bros. seems “inevitable” given the antitrust concerns surrounding Netflix’s potential acquisition. President Trump on Tuesday appeared to distance himself from speculation around his closeness to Paramount’s owners, posting on Truth Social, “If they are friends, I’d hate to see my enemies!”

Warner’s attempt to influence its shareholders could fuel a higher bid from Paramount in the coming weeks — shareholders currently have until January 8 to decide whether to accept the current offer.

Paramount’s offer, in contrast, was described in the letter as “illusory,” providing “inadequate value,” and likely to impose “numerous, significant risks and costs on WBD.” The board said Paramount has “misled WBD shareholders that its proposed transaction has a ‘full backstop’ from the Ellison family,” and the board also outlined that it doesn’t believe there is a “material difference in regulatory risk between the PSKY offer and the Netflix merger.”

WBD shares dipped in the minutes leading up to the market close on Tuesday after news leaked that its management was preparing to encourage shareholders to reject Paramounts bid, and shares of the HBO parent were down at $28.66, off 0.83% from yesterday’s close, as of 7:56 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Netflix was ticking higher, up around 1.7%, and Paramount Skydance was modestly in the red, down 1%.

Several outlets have reported that Jared Kushners firm would back out of the group that had been assembled to help finance the Paramount bid. Confirming this withdrawal, a spokesperson for the firm helmed by the president’s son-in-law told NBC News that “the dynamics ​of the investment have changed significantly ​since we initially became ​involved ​in October.”

Analysts this month have said that a renewed bidding war for Warner Bros. seems “inevitable” given the antitrust concerns surrounding Netflix’s potential acquisition. President Trump on Tuesday appeared to distance himself from speculation around his closeness to Paramount’s owners, posting on Truth Social, “If they are friends, I’d hate to see my enemies!”

Warner’s attempt to influence its shareholders could fuel a higher bid from Paramount in the coming weeks — shareholders currently have until January 8 to decide whether to accept the current offer.

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