🦸‍♀️ Marvell-ous!

The US national average gas price hit $4.018 a gallon on Tuesday, crossing the $4 threshold for the first time since August 2022, according to the American Automobile Association. That’s roughly a 35% jump, or $1.04 more per gallon, since the Iran war began. 

• Diesel has surged even more sharply, rising about 45% to $5.45, raising concerns about higher shipping, grocery, and consumer goods prices.

• With the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply previously flowed — effectively closed, crude prices are up more than 50% since the war began, feeding quickly into pump prices across the US.

• Still, regional differences remain, with drivers in California now facing nearly $5.90 a gallon for regular gasoline, followed by Hawaii ($5.50) and Washington ($5.30), while those in Oklahoma, Iowa, and Kansas pay under $3.30 a gallon.

The Takeaway

We’re not at all-time high gas prices yet: that would be $5.016 per gallon, a peak the US reached in June 2022, per AAA. Could we get there? Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CNBC yesterday morning that prices could even approach $5 nationwide if the strait remains blocked. 

Currently, the market is hoping that it can trust the messaging from state media in Iran, which reported the country is ready to end the war with certain guarantees, as well as signals from the US, with President Trump telling the New York Post that the war in Iran wouldn’t last “much longer” and then the Strait of Hormuz would open “automatically.” Oil prices fell on Tuesday, and if they can sustain that direction, we may avoid a further springtime surge at the pump.

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On Tuesday, Nvidia announced it’s investing $2 billion in Marvell, a custom chip company, as part of another strategic partnership. The pact will see Marvell “provide custom XPUs and NVLink Fusion-compatible scale-up networking,” a major step for Nvidia in demonstrating the willingness and the ability of its AI offerings to be deployed in concert with other companies’ products. 

• In essence, Nvidia is ready for a world where data centers are composed of a mix of its GPUs as well as custom chips. Making sure those custom chips integrate well with its AI infrastructure platform will help maximize the dollars it receives for every gigawatt of data center capacity deployed.

• This alliance builds on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote address at the GPU Technology Conference, where he repeatedly stressed that the chip designer is both vertically integrated (that is, offers all the solutions you need, not just GPUs) and also horizontally open (read: willing to integrate its offerings into whatever your technology stack happens to be).

• Nvidia’s most recent strategic investment was in neocloud Nebius, also for $2 billion.

• In addition, Nvidia recently invested (you guessed it!) $2 billion apiece in advanced optics companies Coherent and Lumentum as part of deals that included purchase commitments (unlike this partnership with Marvell).

Regardless of commitments, it’s a big vote of confidence in Marvell’s custom chip and networking business.

“Marvell is a marvelous investment,” Huang said on CNBC on Tuesday, adding, “Been dying to say that.”

The Takeaway

Nvidia remains at the center of the AI trade, but it can’t thrive in isolation and needs the players in the massive AI build-out underway to play nice. Huang said the deals Nvidia is making are “an expansion of our ecosystem.” That ecosystem includes customers for its chips, fiber-optics cables to transfer data at light speed, and data center companies like Nebius, Cipher Mining, Applied Digital, and IREN, which all rose following the news. 

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Allbirds, the sustainable wool sneaker brand that went public at a more than $4 billion valuation just over four years ago, announced on Monday that it would sell its intellectual property and certain assets and liabilities to American Exchange Group for just $39 million. Once favored by celebrities — from brand investor Leonardo DiCaprio to pop star Camila Cabello — a series of missteps, including a failed foray into brick-and-mortar stores, has tripped up the sneaker company. 

See Allbirds’ precipitous plunge 

• 🏀 NCAAW: The Final Four is in for the NCAA Women’s Tournament, and it came in as chalky as possible, with every No. 1 seed winning their respective corner of the bracket. UConn remains the team to beat with a 61% chance* of winning it all. 

• 🏀 NCAAM: With Duke out of the running, Arizona and Michigan are locked in a duel to be the favorite of the NCAA Men’s Tournament, with each team priced at a 34% chance of winning it all. Illinois has an 18% shot, and UConn — which dispatched tournament favorite Duke in a buzzer-beater finale — has a 13% chance of winning. 

• ♟️ Chess: We are in the midst of the FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament, and with Magnus Carlsen ineligible to compete right now, Fabiano Caruana has the edge, with markets pricing in a 56% chance the Italian-American grandmaster wins the tournament. Javokhir Sindarov has the next best shot at 27%, while Hikaru Nakamura is a long shot at 8%. 

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.

• Earnings expected from Conagra, Lamb Weston, Cal-Maine, and Tilray 

• March ISM Manufacturing PMI

• March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

• February retail sales