One. Trillion. Dollars.

One. Trillion. Dollars.

That’s how much Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sees the company making through sales of AI chips through 2027, at least.

• “I am certain computing demand will be much higher than that,” he added.

• In late October, Huang said orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips were above $500 billion through 2026. Following the release of Q4 earnings, CFO Colette Kress said the firm expected revenues to exceed that prior target.

• Reported sales of Blackwell in Q4 2025, all of Nvidia’s compute sales in fiscal 2026, and expectations for its current as well as the following fiscal year sum up to $820 billion.

• Consensus estimates for Nvidia’s fiscal 2027 and 2028 (which roughly correspond to calendar years 2026 and 2027) suggest $364 billion and $470 billion in total sales, respectively, in those years, or roughly $834 billion combined.

The stock popped to its highs of the day after Huang offered this guidance during his keynote address at the chip designer’s GTC event in San Jose. Shares were up more than 4.5% before quickly paring to less than 1.5% — their lows of the day.

The Takeaway

The media and Wall Street had expected the main thrust of Huang’s keynote address to be how the chip designer is going beyond GPUs, the processor that enabled the AI boom. 

Those expectations were largely met: a Vera CPU system, part of what the CEO said is “for sure going to be a multi-billion dollar business for us,” as well as the integration of a special chip for certain inference workloads that helps the company sidestep some of the supply crunch in memory chips.

Throughout the speech, Huang took care to repeat that the chip designer is both vertically integrated (that is, offers all the solutions you need for accelerated computing, not just GPUs) and also horizontally open (read: will meet you wherever you are to integrate its offerings into your technology stack). 

“GTC 2026 was another opportunity for Jensen & Co. to further separate from the field in the AI arms race and they delivered, further reinforcing that Nvidia sits alone at the top of the AI mountain with the entire tech world watching below,” wrote Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives. “Nvidia’s inference leadership is only widening.”

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Nebius finished up 15% yesterday after the Amsterdam-based company announced a new five-year deal with Meta worth as much as $27 billion.

• The social media giant will initially buy dedicated AI computing capacity across multiple locations for $12 billion, which will be “one of the first large-scale deployments of the NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform,” according to the company’s press release, with delivery beginning in early 2027.

• This latest deal with Meta, which adds to their previous $3 billion deal announced in November, also notably relies on its partnership with another Big Tech company, Nvidia, which recently invested another $2 billion in Nebius.

• For Meta, the deal underscores the company’s current financial focus: capital is to be used to expand in AI as quickly as possible, but spending in other areas is to be more cautious.

Now, you may be wondering, where the heck is Meta finding all that money for these massive deals? A real mystery, that. Oh, by the way, over the weekend, Reuters reported that the company was looking at layoffs that could affect more than 20% of its staff in an effort to use AI to make its workforce more efficient and offset its surging AI capex costs.

The Takeaway

So far, dropping tens of billions of dollars on talent and compute capacity hasn’t catapulted Meta to the top of the AI leaderboards. Just last week, The New York Times reported that the company was delaying the release of its Avocado model because it simply wasn’t good enough.

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Yesterday, traders glommed on to some optimistic signs about the flow of oil through the all-important Strait of Hormuz.

To put into context how much tanker traffic has fallen, daily ship crossings through the strait have fallen ~99% relative to typical traffic in the world’s busiest oil choke point. 

See the dramatic drop

• 🏀 First Four: There’s still time to fill out those brackets, but the first play-in games of March Madness start today. Two games of the First Four will take place to qualify in the NCAA men’s tournament, and they’re all close-run things: UMBC is a 51% favorite over Howard University to compete for a No. 16 seed, while Texas takes on NC State to play in for a No. 11 seed at 50-50 odds.

• 📊 Illinois: Today voters in Illinois head to the polls, with the biggest question for the reliably blue state shaping up to be who will win the hard-fought Democratic primary for the Senate seat held now by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin. Right now, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has a slight lead over Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, according to prediction markets, leading 52% to 48%. 

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.

• Earnings expected from Oklo, Lululemon, and DocuSign