🇬🇱 When green = red

With US exchanges shut on Monday, on Tuesday traders finally got the chance to react to the president’s tariff threats and escalation over Greenland. The only winners so far are precious metals like gold and silver.

• In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump warned that the US would impose tariffs on European countries — Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland — unless a deal is reached for the “Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.” 

• The touted 10% tariffs on “any and all goods” shipped to the US from the eight countries would take effect February 1, rising to 25% by the start of June if an agreement isn’t reached.

• High-beta stocks, including many of the darlings of the AI trade and Big Tech, opened sharply lower and fell over the course of the day.

• A number of private messages between the president and European leaders have also been released, with Trump explaining in one text exchange between himself and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre that not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize is figuring into his current approach.

Amid the sea of red, precious metals (once again) are shining. Spot gold has gained another 3%, taking it to a record $4,736 per ounce, while silver also leaped to a new high of $95.26 per ounce, extending its remarkable rally.

The fact that the president has yet to show any real interest in dialing down his Greenland plans has spooked markets, which had previously priced any significant escalation of a trade war as relatively unlikely.

The Takeaway

One popular market narrative over the last year has been that Trump often employs tariffs as a threat, using them primarily as a tool to bargain with. But the “Trump Always Chickens Out” argument isn’t really borne out by the data. As Luke Kawa pointed out last year, the reality is that the US has raised its levies rate on both occasions that Trump has been in the White House, suggesting that the more accurate acronym is really: “Trump Always Raises Tariffs.” With the prospect of European retaliation, and the president’s stance seemingly hardening, the risks to global trade seem a lot higher than they were a week ago.

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Trump’s second presidency was heralded as a boon for crypto in general and for bitcoin specifically. Many expected bitcoin to go “to the moon,” as he had promised while also talking up a bitcoin strategic reserve. 

So how is bitcoin and the overall crypto market doing one year into Trump’s second term?

• On Inauguration Day, January 20, 2025, bitcoin hit a new intraday high of $109,114. On January 20, 2026, it fell below $90,000, as fears of new tariffs on European countries related to his push for Greenland rocked the crypto market, triggering a sell-off that led to $780 million in crypto liquidations.

• The overall crypto market cap stood at $3.36 trillion on Inauguration Day; it’s currently at $3.14 trillion. 

• Bitcoin did hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025, but could not hold on to those gains. 

• Rohan Hirani, cofounder of BitcoinQuant, told Sherwood News that everyone anticipated 2025 to be the “monster year” of the four-year cycle. Instead, bitcoin finished the year down ~6%, leaving sentiment “in the gutter.” 

• Jayanand Sagar, cofounder of Hyperbola Network, said there was a lot of expectation that political signaling alone would trigger a step change in bitcoin adoption, but what actually played out was slower and more structural: prices have responded to drivers like ETFs, institutional access, and clearer regulation.

Outside of bitcoin, one group that has undoubtedly gained from crypto over the past year is the Trump family: a Bloomberg report estimates a variety of digital assets added $1.4 billion to the Trump family’s wealth over the past year.

The Takeaway

Now that 2025 is in the rearview mirror, what matters of course is what’s on the horizon for bitcoin. Juan Leon, senior investment strategist at Bitwise, has a rosier outlook for 2026, saying the setup is arguably better than 2025, as we have washed out the “inauguration premium… The market structure looks far healthier at $95,000 today than it did at $109,000 a year ago. We are building a base to go higher in 2026 on solid regulatory ground, not just hope.” 

More 2026 bitcoin predictions

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Why we’re looking for love (and jobs) in unexpected places

Snacks Shots

• 🎬 Oscars: Tomorrow we get the Oscar nominations, and while the top of the field — movies like “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Hamnet,” “Sinners,” “Frankenstein,” and “Sentimental Value” — seem like locks for a nomination, there are still a few movies on the bubble for a Best Picture. Based on the prediction markets, “Bugonia” (with a 90% chance), “The Secret Agent” (83%), “Train Dreams” (81%), “It Was Just An Accident” (67%), “F1” (31%), “Weapons” (18%), “Wicked: For Good” (12%), and “No Other Choice” (9%) are vying for those last four slots. 

• 🎮 “Madden”: The current favorite to be on the cover of “Madden NFL 27” is Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, followed by Bears quarterback Caleb Williams and Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. With the Seahawks still in Super Bowl contention, it sure seems like it’s Smith-Njigba’s to lose.

• 🏀 NCAAM: We are just a few weeks away from March Madness, and right now the University of Michigan has the best chance of winning the tournament according to the market, with a 17% chance of victory. Other contenders include Arizona (15%), Houston (9%), Connecticut (9%), and perennial villain Duke (8%). 

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.