Apple’s smartphone market share jumped to a world-leading 20% in 2025
Here’s what Dan Ives says the iPhone maker has to do to reach Wedbush’s $350 price target this year.
2025 was a great one for Apple, whose global smartphone market share jumped to 20%, besting Samsung and making it the top-selling brand in the world by shipments, new data from Counterpoint Research shows.
2026 could be a great one for Apple, too, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives — if the company focuses on four things the analyst laid out in a note Monday morning.
To reach Wedbush’s $350 price target, a 35% premium to where Apple is currently trading, Ives said the company must:
1) Make Google Gemini the “exclusive” partner for Apple’s AI strategy, which has heretofore languished using the company’s own models. Bloomberg previously reported that Apple plans to pay Google $1 billion a year to use its Gemini AI model to power Siri.
2) Release an actually good revamped Siri on time. That means the updated Siri, expected this spring, must finally deliver the personalized features and deep system integration Apple promised two years ago. Ives also expects Apple to launch an “AI subscription service” this summer that would function as an additional revenue stream for the company’s growing and lucrative Services segment.
3) Continue its iPhone 17 success with the iPhone 18. Ives thinks 2026 iPhone unit sales will “handily exceed current Street estimates,” which FactSet’s analyst consensus currently pegs at around 245 million, compared with about 233 million last year. Driving the success of the iPhone 18, Ives said, will be the foldable option as well as average selling prices, which he expects to rise $100 on Pro models.
4) Announce that CEO Tim Cook is staying on. Lately, news reports and prediction markets have rallied around Apple hardware chief John Ternus as Apple’s next CEO, saying the company has accelerated its CEO succession plans. Ives said that Apple must say otherwise and put a stop to that chatter since the company is in an “integral period for Cupertino to design and execute on its broader AI Revolution strategy.” Ives expects Cook to continue as CEO “at least through the end of 2027.”
Taken together, Ives sees 2026 as a long-awaited “prove-it” year for Apple — one where AI ambition, iPhone execution, and leadership stability all need to line up to justify the stock’s next leg higher.
