A Tesla being towed in London (Richard Baker/Getty Images)

Even Tesla bull Dan Ives predicts “very soft” first-quarter deliveries

He estimates that only 30% of that has to do with Musk, DOGE, and brand damage.

3/27/25 11:12AM

Next week, Tesla will release its first-quarter delivery numbers, a closely watched metric for the electric car company and an indicator of how likely this year’s promised “return to growth” will be.

Monthly data has been bad this year and analyst consensus estimates have been dropping. Now, even Tesla bull Dan Ives expects a “very soft rip the band-aid off 1Q delivery number” of 355,000 to 360,000, which would be a 7% to 8% year-on-year decline, according to a new note from the Wedbush Securities analyst. Earlier this year, his firm had predicted 8% growth in Q1.

Ives concedes that some of Tesla’s damage has been the result of CEO Elon Musk’s recent actions.

“Musk leading DOGE has essentially taken on a life of its own as in the process Tesla has unfortunately become a political symbol globally with protests, violence and demonstrations at dealerships and cars keyed, and a massive ‘TeslaTakedown’ day of action planned by protestors for this Saturday, March 29th.”

Interestingly, Ives estimates this quarter’s decline has 30% to do with “Musk/brand/DOGE” and is 70% related to “timing and non-brand headwind issues.” Still, the bull remains bullish:

“We believe 1Q will be the low point and the Street is starting to look through these numbers to better understand the delivery trajectory the rest of the year with much stronger 2H the key as model refreshes are around the corner.”

The analyst consensus estimate on FactSet is still predicting year-on-year growth, with 417,000 deliveries, but that includes many months-old estimates. Estimates made this month — factoring in monthly sales declines around the world, President Trump’s tariffs, Tesla boycotts, among other headwinds — all predict a decline.

Ives maintains his firms “outperform” rating and price target of $550 — nearly double what it’s trading at currently.

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Ives raises Apple price target to Wall Street high of $310, citing a “real upgrade cycle” for iPhones

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives raised his Apple price target to $310 from $270 thanks to “early strong demand signs” for the iPhone 17, which he says is tracking 10% to 15% ahead of the iPhone 16 at this point.

That $310 price target is the highest among Wall Street analysts polled by Bloomberg.

Ives said the Street’s estimate of about 230 million iPhone unit sales for Apple’s upcoming fiscal year is conservative and instead thinks the company is on track to sell 240 million to 250 million units in FY26. Ives wrote:

“The combination of a pent-up consumer upgrade cycle with our estimates of 315 million of 1.5 billion iPhones globally not upgrading their iPhones in the last 4 years, coupled with some design changes/enhancements have been the magical formula out of the gates.”

Sherwood News reported last week that redesigned iPhone models, which went on sale Friday, are seeing more interest than they have in three years — a phenomenon we speculate might have less to do with the iPhone itself and more to do with a natural upgrade cycle, as the rush of phones purchased in 2020 and 2021 become obsolete.

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Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are among the US tech companies most affected by Trump’s $100,000 H-1B fee

President Trump’s proclamation on Friday charging a new $100,000 fee for high-skilled tech visas has sent the country’s biggest tech companies scrambling. Firms warned their H-1B workers not to travel outside the US and are weighing what the steep cost could mean for future hiring, given their heavy reliance on the program to bring in top talent.

Data from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services shows the top beneficiaries of H-1B visas this year include Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Google.

So far, the leaders of these tech companies, many of whom recently attended a White House dinner praising the president, have been mum on the new fee, except for Netflix’s Reed Hastings. He wrote on X that he considers it a “great solution.”

“It will mean H1-B is used just for very high-value jobs, which will mean no lottery needed, and more certainty for those jobs,” he said. Netflix is not among the top 100 beneficiaries of H-1B visas this year.

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OpenAI reportedly poaching key Apple designers, using Apple manufacturing partners for AI gadgets

New details are emerging about the mysterious AI gadgets being designed by former Apple design chief Jony Ive since OpenAI purchased his startup “io” in May.

According to a report by The Information, Ive’s team has recruited several key Apple design and hardware employees to work on the gadgets. The Information reported some details of the devices:

“One of the products OpenAI has talked to suppliers about making resembles a smart speaker without a display, the people said. OpenAI has also considered building glasses, a digital voice recorder and a wearable pin, and is targeting late 2026 or early 2027 for the release of its first devices, one of the people said.”

OpenAI is also turning to Apple’s Chinese manufacturing partners to build the products, having signed contracts with Luxshare, and has been in talks with Goertek, per the report.

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“One of the products OpenAI has talked to suppliers about making resembles a smart speaker without a display, the people said. OpenAI has also considered building glasses, a digital voice recorder and a wearable pin, and is targeting late 2026 or early 2027 for the release of its first devices, one of the people said.”

OpenAI is also turning to Apple’s Chinese manufacturing partners to build the products, having signed contracts with Luxshare, and has been in talks with Goertek, per the report.

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