A Tesla being towed in London (Richard Baker/Getty Images)

Even Tesla bull Dan Ives predicts “very soft” first-quarter deliveries

He estimates that only 30% of that has to do with Musk, DOGE, and brand damage.

3/27/25 11:12AM

Next week, Tesla will release its first-quarter delivery numbers, a closely watched metric for the electric car company and an indicator of how likely this year’s promised “return to growth” will be.

Monthly data has been bad this year and analyst consensus estimates have been dropping. Now, even Tesla bull Dan Ives expects a “very soft rip the band-aid off 1Q delivery number” of 355,000 to 360,000, which would be a 7% to 8% year-on-year decline, according to a new note from the Wedbush Securities analyst. Earlier this year, his firm had predicted 8% growth in Q1.

Ives concedes that some of Tesla’s damage has been the result of CEO Elon Musk’s recent actions.

“Musk leading DOGE has essentially taken on a life of its own as in the process Tesla has unfortunately become a political symbol globally with protests, violence and demonstrations at dealerships and cars keyed, and a massive ‘TeslaTakedown’ day of action planned by protestors for this Saturday, March 29th.”

Interestingly, Ives estimates this quarter’s decline has 30% to do with “Musk/brand/DOGE” and is 70% related to “timing and non-brand headwind issues.” Still, the bull remains bullish:

“We believe 1Q will be the low point and the Street is starting to look through these numbers to better understand the delivery trajectory the rest of the year with much stronger 2H the key as model refreshes are around the corner.”

The analyst consensus estimate on FactSet is still predicting year-on-year growth, with 417,000 deliveries, but that includes many months-old estimates. Estimates made this month — factoring in monthly sales declines around the world, President Trump’s tariffs, Tesla boycotts, among other headwinds — all predict a decline.

Ives maintains his firms “outperform” rating and price target of $550 — nearly double what it’s trading at currently.

Jon Keegan14h

Report: OpenAI may tailor a version of ChatGPT for UAE that prohibits LGBTQ+ content

In June of last year, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman appeared in Abu Dhabi, UAE, alongside Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to announce “Stargate UAE,” a project that includes a 1-gigawatt AI data center in Abu Dhabi, and a commitment to invest in the Stargate USA project.

OpenAI has announced that it is interested in jumping on the “sovereign AI” train, helping countries roll out their own AI services that reflect their own language, culture, and version of history.

Today, Semafor is reporting that OpenAI is in talks to develop a tailored version of ChatGPT for the UAE that would align with the kingdom’s conservative social laws and speech restrictions, such as disallowing discussion of LGBTQ+ content. The UAE-owned MGX investment firm is an investor in OpenAI.

The company announced its OpenAI for Countries initiative in May of last year, which aims to “help interested governments build sovereign AI capability in coordination with the U.S. government — rooted in democratic values, open markets, and trusted partnerships.”

The UAE is a monarchy with a history of human rights violations.

OpenAI’s plan for “democratic AI”

The UAE is a monarchy with a history of human rights violations.

Allen & Co Brings Together Media And Tech Titans In Sun Valley

Analysts think Amazon’s sky-high capex is a good thing, even if there’s “shock value” for investors

That said, several analysts also lowered their price targets for Amazon the day after its downbeat earnings report.

Rani Molla16h

Jon Keegan17h

Big Tech’s $1.1 trillion cloud computing backlog

Now that the big dogs of cloud computing have all reported their quarterly earnings, we can step back and get a sense of the searing demand that AI is driving toward their businesses.

Amazon, Google, and Microsoft each reported hundreds of billions in RPO (remaining performance obligations) — signed contracts for cloud computing services that can’t yet be filled and haven’t yet hit the books.

Collectively, the big three cloud providers reported a $1.1 TRILLION backlog of revenue.

This gargantuan demand could be good news for the “neoscalers” like CoreWeave and Nebius. But even CoreWeave is reporting a substantial backlog of its own — $55 billion last quarter.

Rani Molla

Apple of another’s AI

19h

Apple is the only Big Tech company whose capex declined last quarter

One of these companies is not like the others.

Apple Headquarters in Cupertino of California

Rani Molla22h

Big Tech capital expenditure soared in 2025. It’s going up another 50% in 2026.

Last quarter was one for the record books when it came to Big Tech’s purchases of property and equipment. Combined, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta spent nearly $400 billion on capex, sans leases, in total last year, mostly in service of building out the AI infrastructure that they hope will furnish their futures.

And 2026 is only getting more expensive.

The four are expected to spend 50% more in 2026 than in 2025: roughly $600 billion. Amazon said it’s on the hook for $200 billion in capex this year, while Google expects to spend between $175 billion and $185 billion. Not too far behind, Meta estimated its 2026 capex would be $115 billion to $135 billion. Microsoft didn’t give an estimate, but analysts have its 2026 calendar year capex at around $114 billion. However, it should be noted that analysts’ expectations for 2026 were way lower than the reality for the rest.